Creating a very long-term database
for world population and GDP forecasts

Aim

According to the OECD's forecasts for member-countries' real GDP, both China and India will surpass the United States in GDP terms around the middle of this century, and their per capita GDP levels are predicted to rise accordingly. With the Economist magazine and others also now making long-range forecasts for the world economy, population, social structure etc until 2050, interest in long-range forecasting is growing. In the present research, the population, real GDP, and per capita GDP of 160 countries will be estimated until 2100. Our aim is to create a database with wide practical applicability.

Method

First, drawing on Angus Maddison's historical data for 1-2006CE, the very long-term statistical relationship between population and real GDP is estimated for each country.
Next, utilizing UN population estimates, we calculate estimates for real GDP and per capita GDP for 160 countries for each year until 2100. Finally, we construct an easily accessible database, and make it available for public use on the APIR website's Data section. In line with periodic revisions of the UN population estimates and the IMF Economic Outlook, our calculations will also be revised and the database updated periodically.

The latest version of the full database can be accessed here.

  • The latest version of the full database can be accessed here.
  • The methodology used is described in detail here.

The data for selected countries is available below for downloading as individual files. All data can be found in the full database.

Links

  • The UN population division website can be accessed here.
  • The Maddison Project database can be accessed here.
  • The IMF's World Economic Outlook (2010) can be accessed here.

Selected Data

  • DATA.01

    World 4, GDP to 2100

    download excel file

  • DATA.02

    World 3, pcGDP to 2100

    download excel file

  • DATA.03

    East Asia 3, pcGDP to 2100

    download excel file

  • DATA.04

    EU 4, pcGDP to 2100

    download excel file

  • DATA.05

    BRICs, pcGDP to 2100

    download excel file

Highlights and applicability of this research

  • It clearly shows the effect of population movements on the economy. The forecasts, which cover 100 years, are based on population as a variable.
  • It clearly shows the "Malthusian trap" that will burden some countries, as population increases and per capita GDP declines.
  • It shows a decreasing trend in per capita income disparity between countries until the middle of this century, but a return to increasing disparity thereafter.
  • It predicts that the United States' economic primacy will be maintained by 2100, while China and India will see negative growth due to population decreases.
  • It gives clear long-term forecasts for the economies of such groupings as ASEAN, ASEAN+6, TPP candidate countries, and the European Union.
  • It offers valuable forecasts for companies considering future investments or estimating country risk, as well as forming a basis for future APIR research.
  • DISCLAIMER: These estimates are provided "as is" and without warranty of any kind, either express or implied. Neither the author nor APIR shall be liable for any losses or damages incurred or suffered which are claimed to result from the use of this data.