Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

APIR provides weekly and monthly assessments of current economic conditions and future outlooks for the United States and Japan. We also provide detailed quarterly predictions for the economies of Kansai and Japan..

INADA, Yoshihisa

Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

Kansai Economic Insight Quarterly No. 43

[ Quarterly Report(Kansai) ] AUTHORINADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani DATE2019-06-11

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Abstract/Keywords

Kansai economy, Quarterly report, CQM

Some sectors of the economy are robust but the outlook remains uncertain, dimmed by US-China trade frictions and the upcoming consumption tax hike.

▶ In 2019Q1 Japan’s real GDP registered the second consecutive quarter of positive growth, expanding +0.5% QoQ (+2.1% if annualized). ▶ Although some sectors of Kansai’s economy remained robust in 2019Q1, there are growing risks of recession. ▶ Our forecast for Kansai’s real GRP growth in FY2019 is +0.7%. Private demand is expected to contribute +0.5%pt, government spending +0.3%pt, and external demand -0.1%pt. ▶ We forecast a +0.4% real GRP growth in Kansai in FY2020. The expected contributions are +0.3%pt for private demand, +0.3%pt for government spending, and -0.1%pt for external demand.
INADA, Yoshihisa

Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

Japanese Economy Monthly Forecast (May 2019)

[ Monthly Report(JP) ] AUTHORINADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani DATE2019-06-04

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Abstract/Keywords

Japanese economy, Monthly report, CQM

▶ Although real GDP in Q1 expanded for the second consecutive quarter, there are reasons for concern as the  demand-side GDP components declined QoQ. Growth was mainly driven by the expansion in private inventory changes and declining imports. ▶ For Q2, we forecast real annualized GDP growth of +0.9% (expenditure side). The production-side forecast is an annualized +1.2%. The forecasts from the past three weeks, however, suggest a negative trend. We forecast a GDP deflator of -0.0% QoQ in Q2.
INADA, Yoshihisa

Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

Kansai Economic Insight Monthly Vol.73 (May 2019)

[ Monthly Report(Kansai) ] AUTHORINADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani DATE2019-05-28

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Abstract/Keywords

Summary: Economy remains sluggish with signs of potential deterioration

  • Production in March shrank MoM for the first time in two months. • The April trade balance remained positive for the third month in a row, but it shrank YoY. • The Economy Watchers’ DI in March improved MoM for the first time in two months. • Real wages in February increased YoY for the second month in a row. • Sales by large retailers in March expanded for the first time in five months. • New housing starts in March increased YoY for the first time in two months. • The effective job offers-to-applicants ratio in March remained unchanged. • March was the 13th month of uninterrupted YoY growth in construction. • International arrivals at KIX in April grew YoY for the seventh month in a row. • China’s PMI in April deteriorated for the first time in two months.
INADA, Yoshihisa

Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

Japanese Economy Monthly Forecast (April 2019)

[ Monthly Report(JP) ] AUTHORINADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani DATE2019-05-09

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Abstract/Keywords

Japanese economy, Monthly report, CQM

INADA, Yoshihisa

Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

Kansai Economic Insight Monthly Vol.72 (April 2019)

[ Monthly Report(Kansai) ] AUTHORINADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani DATE2019-05-08

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Abstract/Keywords

Kansaieconomy , Monthlyreport

INADA, Yoshihisa

Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

Japanese Economy Monthly Forecast (March 2019)

[ Monthly Report(JP) ] AUTHORINADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani DATE2019-04-03

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Abstract/Keywords

Japanese economy, Monthly report, CQM

INADA, Yoshihisa

Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

Kansai Economic Insight Monthly Vol.71 (February/March 2019)

[ Monthly Report(Kansai) ] AUTHORINADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani DATE2019-04-02

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INADA, Yoshihisa

Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

Japanese Economy Monthly Forecast (February 2019)

[ Monthly Report(JP) ] AUTHORINADA, Yoshihisa DATE2019-03-08

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Abstract/Keywords

Japanese economy, Monthly report, CQM

INADA, Yoshihisa

Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

Japanese Economy Monthly Forecast (August 2018)

[ Monthly Report(JP) ] AUTHORINADA, Yoshihisa DATE2018-09-11

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Abstract/Keywords

Japanese economy, Monthly report, CQM

INADA, Yoshihisa

Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

Japanese Economy Monthly Forecast (February 2018)

[ Monthly Report(JP) ] AUTHORINADA, Yoshihisa DATE2018-03-10

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Abstract/Keywords

Japanese Economy, CQM

INADA, Yoshihisa

Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

Japanese Economy Monthly Forecast (March 2018)

[ Monthly Report(JP) ] AUTHORINADA, Yoshihisa DATE2018-04-09

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Abstract/Keywords

Japanese Economy, CQM

INADA, Yoshihisa

Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

Japanese Economy Monthly Forecast (April 2018)

[ Monthly Report(JP) ] AUTHORINADA, Yoshihisa DATE2018-05-01

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Abstract/Keywords

Japanese economy, Monthly report, CQM

INADA, Yoshihisa

Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

Kansai Economic Insight Monthly Vol.60 (April 2018)

[ Monthly Report(Kansai) ] AUTHORINADA, Yoshihisa / TOYOHARA, Norihiko / KINOSHITA, Yusuke / IKUTA, Yusuke / CAO, Thi Khanh Nguyet / MA, Teng DATE2018-05-22

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Abstract/Keywords

Kansaieconomy , Monthlyreport

INADA, Yoshihisa

Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

Kansai Economic Insight Monthly Vol.61 (April/May 2018)

[ Monthly Report(Kansai) ] AUTHORINADA, Yoshihisa / TOYOHARA, Norihiko / KINOSHITA, Yusuke / IKUTA, Yusuke / CAO, Thi Khanh Nguyet / MA, Teng DATE2018-05-31

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Abstract/Keywords

Kansaieconomy , Monthlyreport

INADA, Yoshihisa

Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

Japanese Economy Monthly Forecast (May 2018)

[ Monthly Report(JP) ] AUTHORINADA, Yoshihisa DATE2018-06-07

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Abstract/Keywords

CQM, Monthly Report, Japanese Economy

INADA, Yoshihisa

Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

Japanese Economy Analysis and Forecasts, No. 116

[ Quarterly Report(JP) ] AUTHORINADA, Yoshihisa DATE2018-06-20

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Abstract/Keywords

Japanese economy, Quarterly report, CQM

INADA, Yoshihisa

Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

Kansai Economic Insight Quarterly No. 38

[ Quarterly Report(Kansai) ] AUTHORINADA, Yoshihisa / IRIE, Hiroaki DATE2018-06-20

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Abstract/Keywords

Kansai economy, Quarterly report, CQM

INADA, Yoshihisa

Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

Kansai Economic Insight Monthly Vol.62 (May/June 2018)

[ Monthly Report(Kansai) ] AUTHORINADA, Yoshihisa / TOYOHARA, Norihiko / KINOSHITA, Yusuke / IKUTA, Yusuke / CAO, Thi Khanh Nguyet / MA, Teng DATE2018-07-03

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Abstract/Keywords

Kansaieconomy , Monthlyreport

INADA, Yoshihisa

Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

Japanese Economy Monthly Forecast (June 2018)

[ Monthly Report(JP) ] AUTHORINADA, Yoshihisa DATE2018-07-10

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Abstract/Keywords

Japanese economy, Monthly report, CQM

INADA, Yoshihisa

Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

Kansai Economic Insight Monthly Vol.63 (June/July 2018)

[ Monthly Report(Kansai) ] AUTHORINADA, Yoshihisa / TOYOHARA, Norihiko / KINOSHITA, Yusuke / MA, Teng / IKUTA, Yusuke / CAO, Thi Khanh Nguyet DATE2018-07-27

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Abstract/Keywords

Kansaieconomy , Monthlyreport