Kansai Economic Insight Quarterly No. 39

2018-08-30

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INADA, Yoshihisa
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Abstract/Keywords

Japanese economy, Monthly report, CQM

▶ Despite the small upward revision in Q1real GDP official estimates, there are reasons for concern as the  demand-side GDP components all declined QoQ. Growth was mainly driven by the expansion in private inventory changes and shrinking imports. ▶ Contrary to our expectations of an economic recoil following the long holidays, May data showed a robust increase in production. However, this might be temporary. ▶ Regarding Q2, we forecast a real annualized GDP growth of +0.2% (expenditure side). The production-side forecast is an annualized +0.6%. The forecasts from the past month suggest a growth deceleration trend.
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[ Monthly Report(Kansai) ] AUTHORINADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani DATE2019-06-27

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Abstract/Keywords

Kansai economy, Monthly report

Summary: Current economic deterioration expected to persist

・ Production in April expanded MoM for the first time in six months, but output was -0.5% lower than the Q1 average. ・ Kansai registered a trade deficit in May for the first time in four months. Both exports and imports shrank YoY. ・ The Economy Watchers' Diffusion Index (DI) in May deteriorated MoM for the first time in two months. ・ Both nominal and real wages in March decreased YoY for the first time in three months. ・ Sales by large retailers in April shrank YoY for the first time in two months. ・ The number of new housing starts in April decreased YoY for the first time in two months. ・ The job offers-to-applicants ratio in April increased slightly. The unemployment rate remained unchanged. ・ Construction works in April expanded for the 14th consecutive month. ・ The number of international arrivals at Kansai International Airport in May grew YoY for the eighth month in a row. ・ China's Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) in May deteriorated for the second consecutive month.