Kansai Economic Insight Monthly Vol.67 (October/November 2018)

2018-11-30

Related papers

INADA, Yoshihisa
Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

Kansai Economic Insight Quarterly No. 43

[ Quarterly Report(Kansai) ] AUTHORINADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani DATE2019-06-11

PDF_direct

Abstract/Keywords

Kansai economy, Quarterly report, CQM

Some sectors of the economy are robust but the outlook remains uncertain, dimmed by US-China trade frictions and the upcoming consumption tax hike.

▶ In 2019Q1 Japan’s real GDP registered the second consecutive quarter of positive growth, expanding +0.5% QoQ (+2.1% if annualized). ▶ Although some sectors of Kansai’s economy remained robust in 2019Q1, there are growing risks of recession. ▶ Our forecast for Kansai’s real GRP growth in FY2019 is +0.7%. Private demand is expected to contribute +0.5%pt, government spending +0.3%pt, and external demand -0.1%pt. ▶ We forecast a +0.4% real GRP growth in Kansai in FY2020. The expected contributions are +0.3%pt for private demand, +0.3%pt for government spending, and -0.1%pt for external demand.
INADA, Yoshihisa
Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

Japanese Economy Monthly Forecast (May 2019)

[ Monthly Report(JP) ] AUTHORINADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani DATE2019-06-04

PDF_direct

Abstract/Keywords

Japanese economy, Monthly report, CQM

▶ Although real GDP in Q1 expanded for the second consecutive quarter, there are reasons for concern as the  demand-side GDP components declined QoQ. Growth was mainly driven by the expansion in private inventory changes and declining imports. ▶ For Q2, we forecast real annualized GDP growth of +0.9% (expenditure side). The production-side forecast is an annualized +1.2%. The forecasts from the past three weeks, however, suggest a negative trend. We forecast a GDP deflator of -0.0% QoQ in Q2.