Is It Abenomics or Post-Disaster Recovery? A Counterfactual Analysis


This study is an attempt to assess the impact of policy initiatives launched
by Japan’s new Prime Minister Shinzo Abe on Japan’s real GDP in his first
quarter in office. We use as a benchmark for measurement a counterfactual
estimate of GDP. Since the Japanese economy is also in the midst of
reconstruction from the 2011 Tohoku disaster in the first quarter of 2013, we
first estimate the counterfactual GDP which would have materialized in the
absence of that disaster. We will use a dummy variable method and the
statistical method proposed by Cheng Hsia and others. We check the validity
of these methods with regard to the Kobe earthquake of 1995, and then
estimate the post-disaster counterfactual GDP for the Tohoku disaster. We
measure the impact of government policies as the difference between the
actual and counterfactual GDP. By doing so, we conclude that government
policies have failed to lift Japan’s GDP to the expected level. Even with the
help of Abenomics, the gap remains in the rage of 3 to 13 trillion yen per year.


林 敏彦

Population as a Source of Long−Term Growth: From Malthus to Japan’s Postmodern Regime

[ ディスカッションペーパー ] AUTHOR林 敏彦 DATE2016-09-13



population elasticity, Malthusian regime, modern growth regime, postmodern regime, demographic transformation

This paper introduces a simple macroeconomic time series model incorporating a key concept of  GDP elasticity with respect to population (population elasticity). Using this model, we conducted empirical analyses of 158 countries each covering 25 to 180 years of history. As a result, we found first that the estimated population elasticity demarcated the countries according to regime, showing clearly whether a country was in the ‘Malthusian regime’, in the ‘modern growth regime’ or in the ‘postmodern regime’. We found that the poorest countries as well as some oil-rich countries were in the Malthusian regime. The modern growth regime prevailed in most European, Asian and American countries in the 20th century. We then predicted long-term real GDP for each country while they stayed in modern growth regimes. Third, we observed that both Germany and Japan went into a postmodern regime after a demographic transformation. Focusing on Japan, we argued that if the nation remained in the modern growth regime, it would face a precipitous decline in GDP. We suggested that Japan must reduce dependence on population as a source of growth in the postmodern era. This lesson might be important for the two thirds of countries in the world that are expected to enter a postmodern regime around the middle of this century.
稲田 義久


[ 2016年度/人口減少下における関西の成長戦略 ] EDITOR稲田 義久 / 林 敏彦 DATE




ツーリズム先進諸国との比較・分析を踏まえ、観光資源豊富な関西地域にとってツーリズムが重要な成長分野であることを ”産業”、”雇用機会”、”文化発信”等の各視点から客観的に捉えると共に、今後基幹産業として育成していく上での様々な課題をハード・ソフト両面から総合的に検討・把握した上で、関西がツーリズム先進地域として今後さらに飛躍していくための長期的な観光投資戦略のあり方に関する提言をめざす。
林 敏彦

世界経済超長期予測 2016年版

[ 2016年度/経済予測・分析、シミュレーション ] AUTHOR林 敏彦 DATE




研究統括 林 敏彦  






平行して行うウェブ調査では、アジア諸国に進出した日本企業の「好感度」調査を行い、消費者ではなく、B to B の視点から、ビジネスパートナーとしての日本企業に対する評価と批判点を明らかにしたい。 


島 章弘  APIRシニアプロデューサー 辻 俊晴  APIR総括調査役 門野尚誉  APIR総括調査役 松川純治  APIR総括調査役  





林 敏彦

Democracy and Globalization Are not Prerequisites for Higher Income: A Cross Country Analysis

[ ディスカッションペーパー ] AUTHOR林 敏彦 DATE2015-12-22



per capita GDP, Democracy, Corruption, Globalization, Human Development

This paper reports results from a cross country econometric analyses over 150 countries pertaining to possible correlation between per capita GDP and democracy, corruption, globalization and human development indices. Our findings include 1) of the four indices, the human development index has the strongest influence on per capita GDP and its growth, 2) fighting corruption pays as higher levels of cleanliness and transparency tend to raise per capita GDP, but less so in lower income economies, 3) the globalization index does not show any significant correlation with per capita GDP, and 4) the democracy index is not significantly correlated with per capita GDP or growth. but in some country it can hinder growth. The moral of our investigation is that economic growth does not automatically lead to better democracy, and higher per capita income does not warrant higher level of democracy. Democracy is not a means to higher income, but rather, it is an independent value in itself. 
林 敏彦

APIR Commentary No.53<人口減少国ドイツと日本>

[ コメンタリー ] AUTHOR林 敏彦 DATE2015-11-19




日本の人口減少が始まってしばらく経つ。人口のピークは2009年だった。そこから2100年まで、日本の人口は継続的に減少すると予測されている。しかし、実は、人口減少を経験するのは日本だけではない。 国連が新しく改定した人口推計の2015年版を調べてみると、人口が21世紀中のどこかで最大値を記録し、2100年にかけて減少していく国の数は155カ国。データに収録されている231カ国のうち、実に67%に当たる。世界の総人口は2100年まで増加を続けるが、ヨーロッパやアジアの高所得国から上位中所得国では人口減少こそが常態となる。