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Policy Brief
Since its establishment in 2011, the Asia Pacific Institute of Research has been active in conducting research projects, publishing books by leading specialists, issuing annual publications, and circulating research findings through reports, forums and symposiums.
Building on these activities, APIR is now launching the APIR Policy Brief series. APIR Policy Briefs offer expert analysis and concrete proposals that are timely and relevant to some of the major issues facing Japan and the Asia Pacific region today. Each policy brief will focus on one topic, providing insightful discussion of the problems and possibilities and carrying a clear message for future policy direction. Our aim is to make useful contributions to the policy process both directly and indirectly, through regional and national governments, the business community, and other stakeholders.
Authors include Toshihiko Hayashi, APIR’s Research Director and emeritus professor of economics at Osaka University, and other senior and resident researchers. The opinions expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of APIR on any of the policy questions concerned. The APIR Policy Brief series aims to stimulate thoughtful and open-minded policy debate within Japan, the Asia Pacific region and beyond. We welcome comments by email to pbrief@apir.or.jp .
Discussion Paper
The empirical and analytical research we produce is based on independent study or the work of research groups within the Institute. We consult and collaborate with a wide range of partners, with the goal of to deepening research and enriching policy debates in the future. The views expressed in the papers we publish are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of APIR.
Insight
Commentary papers offer insightful discussions of the very latest socio-economic and policy issues, while special Trend Watch reports are published monthly, each focusing on a specific topic. Discussion Papers provide detailed empirical research on major issues, and Analysis Reports include up-to-the-minute data on current economic trends .
Asia Pacific Economic Forecast
APIR provides weekly and monthly assessments of current economic conditions and future outlooks for the United States and Japan. We also provide detailed quarterly predictions for the economies of Kansai and Japan.
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Population as a Source of Long−Term Growth: From Malthus to Japan’s Postmodern Regime
Discussion Papers
Discussion Paper » Discussion Paper
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ABSTRACT
This paper introduces a simple macroeconomic time series model incorporating a key concept of GDP elasticity with respect to population (population elasticity). Using this model, we conducted empirical analyses of 158 countries each covering 25 to 180 years of history. As a result, we found first that the estimated population elasticity demarcated the countries according to regime, showing clearly whether a country was in the ‘Malthusian regime’, in the ‘modern growth regime’ or in the ‘postmodern regime’. We found that the poorest countries as well as some oil-rich countries were in the Malthusian regime. The modern growth regime prevailed in most European, Asian and American countries in the 20th century. We then predicted long-term real GDP for each country while they stayed in modern growth regimes. Third, we observed that both Germany and Japan went into a postmodern regime after a demographic transformation. Focusing on Japan, we argued that if the nation remained in the modern growth regime, it would face a precipitous decline in GDP. We suggested that Japan must reduce dependence on population as a source of growth in the postmodern era. This lesson might be important for the two thirds of countries in the world that are expected to enter a postmodern regime around the middle of this century.
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Population as a Source of Long−Term Growth: From Malthus to Japan’s Postmodern Regime
Discussion Papers
Discussion Paper » Discussion Paper
/ DATE :
ABSTRACT
This paper introduces a simple macroeconomic time series model incorporating a key concept of GDP elasticity with respect to population (population elasticity). Using this model, we conducted empirical analyses of 158 countries each covering 25 to 180 years of history. As a result, we found first that the estimated population elasticity demarcated the countries according to regime, showing clearly whether a country was in the ‘Malthusian regime’, in the ‘modern growth regime’ or in the ‘postmodern regime’. We found that the poorest countries as well as some oil-rich countries were in the Malthusian regime. The modern growth regime prevailed in most European, Asian and American countries in the 20th century. We then predicted long-term real GDP for each country while they stayed in modern growth regimes. Third, we observed that both Germany and Japan went into a postmodern regime after a demographic transformation. Focusing on Japan, we argued that if the nation remained in the modern growth regime, it would face a precipitous decline in GDP. We suggested that Japan must reduce dependence on population as a source of growth in the postmodern era. This lesson might be important for the two thirds of countries in the world that are expected to enter a postmodern regime around the middle of this century.