Kansai Economic Insight Quarterly No. 43

Some sectors of the economy are robust but the outlook remains uncertain, dimmed by US-China trade frictions and the upcoming consumption tax hike.

  • In 2019Q1 Japan’s real GDP registered the second consecutive quarter of positive growth, expanding +0.5% QoQ (+2.1% if annualized).
  • Although some sectors of Kansai’s economy remained robust in 2019Q1, there are growing risks of recession.
  • Our forecast for Kansai’s real GRP growth in FY2019 is +0.7%. Private demand is expected to contribute +0.5%pt, government spending +0.3%pt, and external demand -0.1%pt.
  • We forecast a +0.4% real GRP growth in Kansai in FY2020. The expected contributions are +0.3%pt for private demand, +0.3%pt for government spending, and -0.1%pt for external demand.