Kansai Economic Insight Quarterly No. 43
Abstract
Some sectors of the economy are robust but the outlook remains uncertain, dimmed by US-China trade frictions and the upcoming consumption tax hike.
- In 2019Q1 Japan’s real GDP registered the second consecutive quarter of positive growth, expanding +0.5% QoQ (+2.1% if annualized).
- Although some sectors of Kansai’s economy remained robust in 2019Q1, there are growing risks of recession.
- Our forecast for Kansai’s real GRP growth in FY2019 is +0.7%. Private demand is expected to contribute +0.5%pt, government spending +0.3%pt, and external demand -0.1%pt.
- We forecast a +0.4% real GRP growth in Kansai in FY2020. The expected contributions are +0.3%pt for private demand, +0.3%pt for government spending, and -0.1%pt for external demand.
- KEIQ_No43_ENPDF
著者
INADA, Yoshihisa
Director of Research & Derector of Center for Quantitative Economic Analysis(CQEA), Asia Pacific Institute of Research and Professor emeritus, Konan University
Macroeconomics, Applied Econometrics, Economic Forecasting
KARAVASILEV, Yani
Associate Professor, Kwansei Gakuin University and Research Fellow, Asia Pacific Institute of Research
Economic Development, Foreign Direct Investment, International HRM, the Asian and Japanese Economies