Research

Typhoon No. 21 influence on the Kansai economy

Typhoon No. 21 has caused severe damage to the Kansai region. Kansai International Airport (KIX) has suffered from unforeseen flooding of Runway A (Terminal 1 side) and Apron, a tanker colliding into the airport access bridge, etc. It is necessary to show respect to those working hard day and night in order to speed up the reopening process of the airport.

The Kansai economy is benefitting from 2 types of export: the so-called service export of inbound tourism (inbound consumption is classified as service export in statistics), and the export of electronic components and devices, both of which go through the KIX, which is an arterial infrastructure of the Kansai and the Japanese economy.

Even a 1-day early recovery will help to keep these benefits. Considering all the caused damage, it still remains unknown as to when the airport will function as per usual again. Currently, it is crucial to gather all the information about what effect the damage will have on the Kansai economy and how important it is to reopen the early at full scale.

関連論文

  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Japanese Economy Monthly Forecast (July 2020)

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Monthly Report(JP)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani

    ABSTRACT

    Forecasts updates
    ▶ Our latest forecast for Japan’s real GDP growth in 2020 Q2 is an annualized -25.4% QoQ.
    ▶ We forecast an overall Q2 GDP deflator of +1.1% QoQ.

    Download the full report for a detailed analysis.

    PDF
  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Kansai Economic Insight Monthly Vol. 87 (July 2020)

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Monthly Report(Kansai)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani

    ABSTRACT

    Outlook: Severe economic deterioration looming in Kansai

    Download the full report for a detailed analysis.

    PDF
  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Japanese Economy Monthly Forecast (June 2020)

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Monthly Report(JP)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani

    ABSTRACT

    Forecasts updates
    ▶ Our latest expenditure-side forecast for Japan’s real GDP growth in 2020 Q2 is an annualized -25.0% QoQ. Our production-side forecast is an annualized -19.3% QoQ. The average of the two is an annualized -22.1%.
    ▶ Our forecasts for the private final consumption expenditure deflator and the domestic demand deflator in 2020 Q1 are respectively -0.2% QoQ and -0.3% QoQ. As the terms of trade have improved substantially, we forecast an overall Q2 GDP deflator of +1.2% QoQ.

    Download the full report for a detailed analysis.

    PDF
  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Kansai Economic Insight Monthly Vol. 86 (June 2020)

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Monthly Report(Kansai)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani

    ABSTRACT

    Outlook: Severe economic deterioration looming

    Download the full report for a detailed analysis.

    PDF
  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Japanese Economy: Analysis and Forecasts, No.128

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Quarterly Report(JP)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani

    ABSTRACT

    V-shaped recovery unlikely following the Covid-19 pandemic -Social distancing measures to slow down recovery-

    ▶ Japan’s 2020 Q1 real GDP growth was an annualized -3.4% QoQ, the second consecutive quarter in negative territory.

    ▶ We expect an even steeper slump in private consumption in 2020 Q2, due to the government’s state of emergency declaration in April.

    ▶ As social distancing is expected to continue even after the state of emergency is lifted, a swift (V-shaped) recovery in production and consumption seems rather unlikely.

    ▶ We have updated our forecast for real GDP growth to -5.6% in FY 2020. After two years of negative growth in FY 2019 and FY 2020, we forecast a positive growth of +2.5% in FY 2021.

    ▶ We forecast a core CPI inflation of -0.4% in FY 2020, and +0.4% in FY 2021. This forecast reflects stagnant domestic and external demand, as well as the combined impact of the decline in gasoline prices, the government’s free childcare program, and the partial or complete elimination of tertiary education fees announced in April this year, which will all exert substantial deflationary pressure.

    PDF
  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Japanese Economy Monthly Forecast (May 2020)

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Monthly Report(JP)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani

    ABSTRACT

    Forecasts updates
    ▶ Our latest expenditure-side forecast for Japan’s real GDP growth in 2020 Q2 is an annualized -14.6% QoQ. Our production-side forecast is an annualized -7.4% QoQ. The average of the two is an annualized -11.0%.
    ▶ Our forecasts for the private final consumption expenditure deflator and the domestic demand deflator in 2020 Q1 are both -0.3% QoQ. However, as the terms of trade are improving, we forecast an overall GDP deflator of +0.7% QoQ.

    Download the full report for a detailed analysis.

    PDF
  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Kansai Economic Insight Monthly Vol. 85 (May 2020)

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Monthly Report(Kansai)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani

    ABSTRACT

    Outlook: Kansai’s economy likely to remain on a downward trajectory

    Download the report for a detailed analysis.

    PDF
  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Kansai Economic Insight Quarterly Vol.49

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Quarterly Report(Kansai)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani

    ABSTRACT

    Covid-19 to further debilitate Kansai’s economy: a slump in private and external demand.

    ▶ Our forecast for Kansai’s real GRP growth is -5.1% in FY 2020 and +2.6% in FY 2021.

    ▶ We estimate that the economic loss caused by the state of emergency in Kansai will be JPY 154.3 billion in terms of private consumption, JPY 825.2 billion in terms of private capital investment, and JPY 3,211.8 billion in terms of exports, adding up to a total GRP loss of JPY 3.75 trillion. 158 thousand employees are expected to lose their jobs.

    PDF
  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Japanese Economy Monthly Forecast (April 2020)

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Monthly Report(JP)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani

    ABSTRACT

    Forecasts updates
    ▶ Our latest expenditure-side forecast for Japan’s real GDP growth in 2020 Q1is an annualized -2.7%. Our production-side forecast is an annualized +0.3%. The average of the two forecasts is an annualized -1.2%.
    ▶ Our forecasts for the private final consumption expenditure deflator and the domestic demand deflator in 2020 Q1 are both +0.1% QoQ. As the terms of trade are deteriorating, we forecast an overall GDP deflator of 0.0% QoQ.

    Download the full report for a detailed analysis.

    PDF
  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Kansai Economic Insight Monthly Vol. 84 (April 2020)

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Monthly Report(Kansai)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani

    ABSTRACT

    Outlook: Kansai’s economy is likely to remain on a downward trajectory

    ▶  Production: Production declined in February.
    ▶  International trade: In March, Kansai’s trade surplus was smaller than the previous month.
    ▶  Business confidence: The Economy Watcher DI in March reached an all-time low.
    ▶  Wages: Both nominal and real wages kept declining in January.
    ▶  Labor market: In February, the job offers-to-applicants ratio kept deteriorating, and the unemployment rate kept increasing.
    ▶  Private Consumption: In February, department store sales plummeted while supermarket sales rose due to stockpiling in the face of the coronavirus pandemic.
    ▶  Housing: The number of new housing starts kept decreasing in February.
    ▶  Construction: Construction investments in February kept expanding, albeit at a decelerating pace. The contract amount for public works projects in March increased.
    ▶   Inbound tourism: Due to the impact of the coronavirus, the number of international arrivals at Kansai International Airport in March plunged -95.1% year-on-year.
    ▶  Chinese economy: China saw its Q1 GDP shrink for the first time since quarterly GDP statistics started in 1992.

    PDF