Japanese Economy Monthly Forecast (June 2019)
Abstract
▶ Despite the small upward revision in Q1real GDP official estimates, there are reasons for concern as the demand-side GDP components all declined QoQ. Growth was mainly driven by the expansion in private inventory changes and shrinking imports.
▶ Contrary to our expectations of an economic recoil following the long holidays, May data showed a robust increase in production. However, this might be temporary.
▶ Regarding Q2, we forecast a real annualized GDP growth of +0.2% (expenditure side). The production-side forecast is an annualized +0.6%. The forecasts from the past month suggest a growth deceleration trend.
著者
INADA, Yoshihisa
Director of Research & Derector of Center for Quantitative Economic Analysis(CQEA), Asia Pacific Institute of Research and Professor emeritus, Konan University
Macroeconomics, Applied Econometrics, Economic Forecasting
KARAVASILEV, Yani
Associate Professor, Kwansei Gakuin University and Research Fellow, Asia Pacific Institute of Research
Economic Development, Foreign Direct Investment, International HRM, the Asian and Japanese Economies