Japanese Economy Monthly Forecast (July 2019)
Abstract
▶ We forecast a real annualized GDP growth of +1.5% in Q2 (expenditure side). The production-side forecast is an annualized +2.1%.
▶ Q2 GDP growth was mainly driven by domestic demand, while net exports are expected to have made a negative contribution.
▶ The latest official figures suggest a robust increase in production, consumption and capital investment in Q2. However, this might be temporary, as the forecasts from the past month suggest a growth deceleration trend.
▶ Q2 CPI inflation is expected to have decelerated to a modest +0.1% QoQ. We forecast an overall GDP deflator of -0.1% QoQ.
著者
INADA, Yoshihisa
Director of Research & Derector of Center for Quantitative Economic Analysis(CQEA), Asia Pacific Institute of Research and Professor emeritus, Konan University
Macroeconomics, Applied Econometrics, Economic Forecasting
KARAVASILEV, Yani
Associate Professor, Kwansei Gakuin University and Research Fellow, Asia Pacific Institute of Research
Economic Development, Foreign Direct Investment, International HRM, the Asian and Japanese Economies
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