Research

Japanese Economy Monthly Forecast (August 2019)

Abstract

Data updates
▶ Q2 real GDP grew an annualized +1.8% QoQ, expanding for the third consecutive quarter.
▶ The consumption goods production index in July fell -0.3% compared to the Q2 average. In contrast, the capital goods production index in July increased +2.0% compared to the Q2 average.
▶ Compared to the Q2 average, real exports and real imports in July grew +2.1% and +1.1%, respectively. As a result, net exports expanded.
▶ The national Consumer Price Index (CPI) in July increased +0.6%YoY, expanding for the 31st consecutive month.

Forecasts
▶ Our forecast for Q3 real GDP growth (expenditure side) is +0.6% QoQ, or +2.6% if annualized. The production-side forecast is an annualized +2.7%.
▶ We forecast an overall Q3 GDP deflator of +0.2% QoQ.

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