Japanese Economy Monthly Forecast (August 2019)
Abstract
Data updates
▶ Q2 real GDP grew an annualized +1.8% QoQ, expanding for the third consecutive quarter.
▶ The consumption goods production index in July fell -0.3% compared to the Q2 average. In contrast, the capital goods production index in July increased +2.0% compared to the Q2 average.
▶ Compared to the Q2 average, real exports and real imports in July grew +2.1% and +1.1%, respectively. As a result, net exports expanded.
▶ The national Consumer Price Index (CPI) in July increased +0.6%YoY, expanding for the 31st consecutive month.
Forecasts
▶ Our forecast for Q3 real GDP growth (expenditure side) is +0.6% QoQ, or +2.6% if annualized. The production-side forecast is an annualized +2.7%.
▶ We forecast an overall Q3 GDP deflator of +0.2% QoQ.
著者
INADA, Yoshihisa
Director of Research & Derector of Center for Quantitative Economic Analysis(CQEA), Asia Pacific Institute of Research and Professor emeritus, Konan University
Macroeconomics, Applied Econometrics, Economic Forecasting
KARAVASILEV, Yani
Associate Professor, Kwansei Gakuin University and Research Fellow, Asia Pacific Institute of Research
Economic Development, Foreign Direct Investment, International HRM, the Asian and Japanese Economies