Research

Kansai Economic Insight Quarterly Vol.44

Summary: Prospects dimmed by growing uncertainties despite continued growth

▶ Japan’s real GDP expanded an annualized +1.8% QoQ in 2019Q2 , registering the third consecutive quarter of positive growth.

▶ Although Kansai’s basic economic trends remained robust in 2019Q2, prospects seem bearish due to growing uncertainties, notably the China-US trade conflict and the upcoming tax hike, which caused a noticeable deterioration in expectations-related indicators.

▶ We forecast real GRP growth of +0.6% in FY2019 and +0.5% in FY2020 in Kansai. Private consumption and government spending will prop up growth, contributing +0.8%pt and +0.4%pt in FY2019, while external demand (outside Kansai) will suppress growth by -0.5%pt. The expected FY2020 contributions are +0.3%pt for private consumption, +0.2%pt for government spending, and -0.0%pt for external demand.

▶ We analyze the impact of the trade conflict with Korea on Kansai’s economy and conclude that even if the conflict persists, its impact is likely to be limited.

関連論文

  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Kansai Economic Insight Quarterly No.60

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Quarterly Report(Kansai)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani

    ABSTRACT

    Kansai’s economy is picking up, but the speed of     recovery varies significantly across industries.

    Despite the weak outlook, increased investment across the entire region is    expected to bring about an economic turnaround

    Download the full report for a detailed analysis.

    PDF
  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Japanese Economy: Analysis and Forecasts, No.139

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Quarterly Report(JP)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani

    ABSTRACT

    Growth rate revised downward to reflect weak export prospects

    – Real GDP growth forecast: +1.5% in FY2022, +1.5% in FY2023 –

    Download the full report for a detailed analysis.

    PDF
  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Kansai Economic Insight Monthly Vol. 112 (August 2022)

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Monthly Report(Kansai)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani

    ABSTRACT

    –  Kansai’s economy expected to remain on an upward trajectory, but the high number of new infections and inflation remain risk factors –

    Download the full report for a detailed analysis.

    PDF
  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Japanese Economy Monthly Forecast (July 2022)

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Monthly Report(JP)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani

    ABSTRACT

    Forecast updates

    ▶ Our forecast for Japan’s real GDP growth in 2022 Q2 is an annualized +1.4%.

    ▶ We forecast a GDP deflator of -1.3% QoQ in 2022 Q2.

    Download the full report for a detailed analysis.

    PDF
  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Kansai Economic Insight Monthly Vol. 111 (July 2022)

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Monthly Report(Kansai)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani

    ABSTRACT

    – Kansai’s economy is expected to keep improving.

    Consumption is expected to pick up moderately, but rising prices might exert downward pressure –

    Download the full report for a detailed analysis.

    PDF
  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Japanese Economy Monthly Forecast (June 2022)

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Monthly Report(JP)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani

    ABSTRACT

    Forecast updates

    ▶ Our forecast for Japan’s real GDP growth in 2022 Q2 is an annualized +0.7%.

    ▶ We forecast a GDP deflator of -1.1% QoQ in 2022 Q2.

    Download the full report for a detailed analysis.

    PDF
  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Kansai Economic Insight Monthly Vol. 110 (June 2022)

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Monthly Report(Kansai)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani

    ABSTRACT

    – Kansai’s economy is expected to keep improving.

    As China’s economy is slowing down, domestic service spending is expected to drive recovery.-

    Download the full report for a detailed analysis.

    PDF
  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Japanese Economy Monthly Forecast (May 2022)

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Monthly Report(JP)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani

    ABSTRACT

    Forecast updates

    ▶ Our forecast for Japan’s real GDP growth in 2022 Q2 is an annualized -0.4%.

    ▶ We forecast a GDP deflator of -1.3% QoQ in 2022 Q2.

    Download the full report for a detailed analysis.

    PDF
  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Kansai Economic Insight Quarterly No.59

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Quarterly Report(Kansai)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani

    ABSTRACT

    Overseas factors casting a shadow on the normalization of economic activity.

    China’s zero-COVID policy will have a major impact on Kansai’s economy.

    Download the full report for a detailed analysis.

    PDF
  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Japanese Economy: Analysis and Forecasts, No.138

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Quarterly Report(JP)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani

    ABSTRACT

    China’s zero-covid policy, high oil prices, and the weak yen pose risks to Japan’s economic recovery

    – Real GDP growth forecast: +1.9% in FY2022, +1.7% in FY2023 –

    Download the full report for a detailed analysis.

    PDF