Kansai Economic Insight Quarterly Vol.44
Summary： Prospects dimmed by growing uncertainties despite continued growth
▶ Japan’s real GDP expanded an annualized +1.8% QoQ in 2019Q2 , registering the third consecutive quarter of positive growth.
▶ Although Kansai’s basic economic trends remained robust in 2019Q2, prospects seem bearish due to growing uncertainties, notably the China-US trade conflict and the upcoming tax hike, which caused a noticeable deterioration in expectations-related indicators.
▶ We forecast real GRP growth of +0.6% in FY2019 and +0.5% in FY2020 in Kansai. Private consumption and government spending will prop up growth, contributing +0.8%pt and +0.4%pt in FY2019, while external demand (outside Kansai) will suppress growth by -0.5%pt. The expected FY2020 contributions are +0.3%pt for private consumption, +0.2%pt for government spending, and -0.0%pt for external demand.
▶ We analyze the impact of the trade conflict with Korea on Kansai’s economy and conclude that even if the conflict persists, its impact is likely to be limited.
- KEIQ_No44_ENPDF
著者
Director, Center for Quantitative Economic Analysis INADA, Yoshihisa
Professor emeritus, Konan University
Macroeconomics, Applied Econometrics, Economic Forecasting
KARAVASILEV, Yani
Researcher
foreign direct investment, international recruitment, corporate agenda setting
関連論文
-
Kansai Economic Insight Quarterly No.63
Asia Pacific Economic Forecast
Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Quarterly Report(Kansai)
/ DATE :
ABSTRACT
Gradual recovery driven by domestic demand expected to continue.
Soaring prices and global economic trends remain risk factors.
Download the full report for a detailed analysis.
-
Japanese Economy: Analysis and Forecasts, No.142
Asia Pacific Economic Forecast
Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Quarterly Report(JP)
/ DATE :
ABSTRACT
Soaring inflation and global economic slowdown take a toll on the Japanese economy
– Real GDP growth forecast: +1.3% in FY 2022, +0.9% in FY 2023, +1.5% in FY 2024 –
Download the full report for a detailed analysis.
-
Japanese Economy Monthly Forecast (February 2023)
Asia Pacific Economic Forecast
Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Monthly Report(JP)
/ DATE :
ABSTRACT
Forecast updates
▶ Our forecast for Japan’s real GDP growth in 2023 Q1 is an annualized -5.1%
▶ We forecast a GDP deflator of +2.4% QoQ in 2023 Q1.
Download the full report for a detailed analysis.
-
Kansai Economic Insight Monthly Vol. 118 (February 2023)
Asia Pacific Economic Forecast
Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Monthly Report(Kansai)
/ DATE :
ABSTRACT
– Kansai’s economy expected to remain on an upward trajectory
Growing risks of rising consumer prices and overseas economic slowdown –
Download the full report for a detailed analysis.
-
Kansai Economic Insight Monthly Vol. 117 (January 2023)
Asia Pacific Economic Forecast
Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Monthly Report(Kansai)
/ DATE :
ABSTRACT
– Kansai’s economy expected to remain on an upward trajectory
Growing uncertainties pose downside risks for the economy –
Download the full report for a detailed analysis.
-
Japanese Economy Monthly Forecast (January 2023)
Asia Pacific Economic Forecast
Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Monthly Report(JP)
/ DATE :
ABSTRACT
Forecast updates
▶ Our forecast for Japan’s real GDP growth in 2022 Q4 is an annualized +2.1%
▶ We forecast a GDP deflator of +2.0% QoQ in 2022 Q4.
Download the full report for a detailed analysis.
-
Kansai Economic Insight Quarterly No.62
Asia Pacific Economic Forecast
Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Quarterly Report(Kansai)
/ DATE :
ABSTRACT
Revised Outlook for Kansai’s Economy Reflecting the Second Advance 2022 Q3 GDP Estimate
Real GDP growth forecast: +1.5%in FY 2022, +1.2% in FY 2023, +1.5% in FY 2024
Download the full report for a detailed analysis.
-
Japanese Economy: Analysis and Forecasts, No.141
Asia Pacific Economic Forecast
Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Quarterly Report(JP)
/ DATE :
ABSTRACT
Revised Outlook for Japan’s Economy Reflecting the Second Advance 2022 Q3 GDP Estimate
– Real GDP growth forecast: +1.5% in FY 2022, +1.1% in FY 2023, +1.4% in FY 2024 –
Download the full report for a detailed analysis.
-
Kansai Economic Insight Monthly Vol. 116 (December 2022)
Asia Pacific Economic Forecast
Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Monthly Report(Kansai)
/ DATE :
ABSTRACT
– Kansai’s economy expected to remain on an upward trajectory
Inflation and global economic slowdown pose risks –
Download the full report for a detailed analysis.
-
Japanese Economy Monthly Forecast (December 2022)
Asia Pacific Economic Forecast
Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Monthly Report(JP)
/ DATE :
ABSTRACT
Forecast updates
▶ Our forecast for Japan’s real GDP growth in 2022 Q4 is an annualized +1.5%
▶ We forecast a GDP deflator of +1.9% QoQ in 2022 Q4.
Download the full report for a detailed analysis.