Japanese Economy: Analysis and Forecasts, No. 123
Abstract
Summary: Private domestic demand might taper off amid deteriorating global trade
▶ Japan’s Q2 real GDP growth was an annualized +1.8% QoQ, precisely matching APIR’s final CQM forecast of +1.8%. Private and public domestic demand propped up growth, whereas net exports made a negative contribution. The China-US trade frictions remain the main risk factor to global trade, posing significant challenges to making forecasts.
▶ APIR’s forecast for real GDP growth is +1.0% in FY2019 and +0.5% in FY2020. The tax hike in October 2019 will inevitably cause a temporary downturn. However, we deem that an economic recession in FY2019 is unlikely due to several factors (see full report).
▶ In addition to energy and non-energy price fluctuations, as well as the impact of the tax hike in October, future trends in prices will be influenced by the planned elimination of child care fees. Considering all these factors, we forecast a core CPI inflation of +0.6% in FY2019 and +0.5% in FY2020.
- J_EAF_No123PDF
著者
Director, Center for Quantitative Economic Analysis INADA, Yoshihisa
Professor emeritus, Konan University
Macroeconomics, Applied Econometrics, Economic Forecasting
KARAVASILEV, Yani
Researcher
foreign direct investment, international recruitment, corporate agenda setting
関連論文
-
Japanese Economy Monthly Forecast (October 2023)
Asia Pacific Economic Forecast
Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Monthly Report(JP)
/ DATE :
ABSTRACT
Forecast updates
▶ Our forecast for Japan’s real GDP growth in 2023 Q3 is an annualized -1.8%
▶ We forecast a GDP deflator of +0.7% QoQ in 2023 Q3.
Download the full report for a detailed analysis.
-
Kansai Economic Insight Monthly Vol. 126 (October 2023)
Asia Pacific Economic Forecast
Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Monthly Report(Kansai)
/ DATE :
ABSTRACT
Signs of change in current and future economic conditions:
Inflation and stagnant exports pose downside risks
Download the full report for a detailed analysis.
-
Japanese Economy Monthly Forecast (September 2023)
Asia Pacific Economic Forecast
Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Monthly Report(JP)
/ DATE :
ABSTRACT
Forecast updates
▶ Our forecast for Japan’s real GDP growth in 2023 Q3 is an annualized +0.0%
▶ We forecast a GDP deflator of +0.9% QoQ in 2023 Q3.
Download the full report for a detailed analysis.
-
Kansai Economic Insight Monthly Vol. 125 (September 2023)
Asia Pacific Economic Forecast
Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Monthly Report(Kansai)
/ DATE :
ABSTRACT
Economy improving, but signs of a standstill in the future:
Stagnant exports and sluggish production growth pose downside risks
Download the full report for a detailed analysis.
-
Japanese Economy Monthly Forecast (August 2023)
Asia Pacific Economic Forecast
Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Monthly Report(JP)
/ DATE :
ABSTRACT
Forecast updates
▶ Our forecast for Japan’s real GDP growth in 2023 Q3 is an annualized +1.6%
▶ We forecast a GDP deflator of +0.7% QoQ in 2023 Q3.
Download the full report for a detailed analysis.
-
Kansai Economic Insight Quarterly No.65
Asia Pacific Economic Forecast
Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Quarterly Report(Kansai)
/ DATE :
ABSTRACT
Kansai’s economy keeps improving, but has yet to reach full recovery.
Economic trends in the U.S., Europe, and China will be key for the outlook.
Download the full report for a detailed analysis.
-
Japanese Economy: Analysis and Forecasts, No.144
Asia Pacific Economic Forecast
Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Quarterly Report(JP)
/ DATE :
ABSTRACT
Real GDP to exceed its pre-pandemic peak driven by decline in imports and increased spending on services
– Real GDP growth forecast: +1.9% in FY 2023, +1.1% in FY 2024 –Download the full report for a detailed analysis.
-
Kansai Economic Insight Monthly Vol. 124 (August 2023)
Asia Pacific Economic Forecast
Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Monthly Report(Kansai)
/ DATE :
ABSTRACT
Economy improving, but signs of a standstill in the future:
Inbound tourism is recovering, but export slowdown poses downside risks
Download the full report for a detailed analysis.
-
Turning Kansai into an Advanced Sustainable Tourism Region
Research Projects
Research Project » 2023FiscalYear » Japan and Kansai economy
ABSTRACT
Research leader:
Yoshihisa Inada(Director of Research & Director of the Center for Quantitative Economic Analysis, Asia Pacific Institute of Research/Professor Emeritus, Konan University)
Research outline:
Demand by inbound tourism in Kansai is recovering rapidly after the Covid-19 pandemic, and is expected to grow further before Expo 2025. In view of this, this project aims to contribute to the formulation of future tourism strategies by local governments, DMOs, and other actors, by analyzing current issues facing the tourism industry and exploring potential solutions. Our focus is quantitative analysis, and the creation of an index which can quantify and measure the brand power of tourism resources.
-
Toward the Sustainable Development of the Kansai Economy: The Osaka-Kansai Expo
Research Projects
Research Project » 2023FiscalYear » Japan and Kansai economy
ABSTRACT
Research leader:
Yoshihisa Inada (Director of Research & Director of the Center for Quantitative Economic Analysis, Asia Pacific Institute of Research/Professor Emeritus, Konan University)
Research outline:
The aim of this project is to investigate ways to attract investment and people to the Kansai region, by making reference to cities that have achieved economic growth. Furthermore, it aims to analyze how the Web society, including education and human resource development, has to change in order for elementary and junior high school students who will experience the Osaka-Kansai Expo in 2025 (the Expo 2025 generation) to become active players in the world by 2050.