Japanese Economy Monthly Forecast (September 2019)
Data updates
▶ The index of industrial production in August declined for the first time in two months (-1.2% MoM).
▶ Rush demand before the consumption tax hike this year seems limited compared to the previous tax hike in 2014.
▶ Both planned residential construction expenditure and capital goods shipments increased in July-August.
▶ Real net exports expanded.
Forecasts
▶ We forecast real GDP growth (expenditure side) of +0.6% QoQ in Q3, or +1.4% if annualized. The production-side forecast is an annualized +2.6%. The average of the two forecasts is an annualized +2.0%.
▶ We expect that the reactionary fall after the tax hike this year will be milder than it was five years ago.
▶ We forecast an overall GDP deflator of +0.1% QoQ in Q3.
著者
Director, Center for Quantitative Economic Analysis INADA, Yoshihisa
Professor emeritus, Konan University
Macroeconomics, Applied Econometrics, Economic Forecasting
KARAVASILEV, Yani
Researcher
foreign direct investment, international recruitment, corporate agenda setting
関連論文
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Japanese Economy Monthly Forecast (August 2023)
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Forecast updates
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Turning Kansai into an Advanced Sustainable Tourism Region
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Research Project » 2023FiscalYear » Japan and Kansai economy
ABSTRACT
Research leader:
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Research outline:
Demand by inbound tourism in Kansai is recovering rapidly after the Covid-19 pandemic, and is expected to grow further before Expo 2025. In view of this, this project aims to contribute to the formulation of future tourism strategies by local governments, DMOs, and other actors, by analyzing current issues facing the tourism industry and exploring potential solutions. Our focus is quantitative analysis, and the creation of an index which can quantify and measure the brand power of tourism resources.
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Toward the Sustainable Development of the Kansai Economy: The Osaka-Kansai Expo
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Research Project » 2023FiscalYear » Japan and Kansai economy
ABSTRACT
Research leader:
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Research outline:
The aim of this project is to investigate ways to attract investment and people to the Kansai region, by making reference to cities that have achieved economic growth. Furthermore, it aims to analyze how the Web society, including education and human resource development, has to change in order for elementary and junior high school students who will experience the Osaka-Kansai Expo in 2025 (the Expo 2025 generation) to become active players in the world by 2050.
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Japanese Economy Monthly Forecast (July 2023)
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Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Monthly Report(JP)
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ABSTRACT
Forecast updates
▶ Our forecast for Japan’s real GDP growth in 2023 Q2 is an annualized +5.0%
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Economy improving, but signs of a standstill in the future:
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ABSTRACT
Forecast updates
▶ Our forecast for Japan’s real GDP growth in 2023 Q2 is an annualized +5.3%
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