Japanese Economy Monthly Forecast (September 2019)
Data updates
▶ The index of industrial production in August declined for the first time in two months (-1.2% MoM).
▶ Rush demand before the consumption tax hike this year seems limited compared to the previous tax hike in 2014.
▶ Both planned residential construction expenditure and capital goods shipments increased in July-August.
▶ Real net exports expanded.
Forecasts
▶ We forecast real GDP growth (expenditure side) of +0.6% QoQ in Q3, or +1.4% if annualized. The production-side forecast is an annualized +2.6%. The average of the two forecasts is an annualized +2.0%.
▶ We expect that the reactionary fall after the tax hike this year will be milder than it was five years ago.
▶ We forecast an overall GDP deflator of +0.1% QoQ in Q3.
著者
Director, Center for Quantitative Economic Analysis INADA, Yoshihisa
Professor emeritus, Konan University
Macroeconomics, Applied Econometrics, Economic Forecasting
KARAVASILEV, Yani
Researcher
foreign direct investment, international recruitment, corporate agenda setting
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