Japanese Economy Monthly Forecast (September 2019)
Abstract
Data updates
▶ The index of industrial production in August declined for the first time in two months (-1.2% MoM).
▶ Rush demand before the consumption tax hike this year seems limited compared to the previous tax hike in 2014.
▶ Both planned residential construction expenditure and capital goods shipments increased in July-August.
▶ Real net exports expanded.
Forecasts
▶ We forecast real GDP growth (expenditure side) of +0.6% QoQ in Q3, or +1.4% if annualized. The production-side forecast is an annualized +2.6%. The average of the two forecasts is an annualized +2.0%.
▶ We expect that the reactionary fall after the tax hike this year will be milder than it was five years ago.
▶ We forecast an overall GDP deflator of +0.1% QoQ in Q3.
著者
INADA, Yoshihisa
Director of Research & Derector of Center for Quantitative Economic Analysis(CQEA), Asia Pacific Institute of Research and Professor emeritus, Konan University
Macroeconomics, Applied Econometrics, Economic Forecasting
KARAVASILEV, Yani
Associate Professor, Kwansei Gakuin University and Research Fellow, Asia Pacific Institute of Research
Economic Development, Foreign Direct Investment, International HRM, the Asian and Japanese Economies