Japanese Economy Monthly Forecast (October 2019)
▶ The Q3 index of industrial production declined for the first time in two quarters.
▶ Rush demand before the consumption tax hike is evident in September data on retail sales, which saw robust growth.
▶ Both planned residential construction expenditure and capital goods shipments increased in Q3.
▶ Q3 real net exports expanded.
▶ Our forecast for Q3 real GDP growth is an annualized +0.9%. This forecast is likely to be revised upwards once September data on private final consumption is released.
▶ We forecast an overall GDP deflator of +0.2% QoQ in Q3.