Japanese Economy Monthly Forecast (November 2019)
▶ Japan’s Q3 real GDP expanded an annualized +0.2% QoQ, well below expectations.
▶ In October, industrial production, plannned dwelling construction, capital goods shipments, real exports and imports all declined. Retail sales shrank by -14.4%, more than they did after the previous tax hike.
▶ Our forecast for Q4 real GDP growth is an annualized -3.2%.
▶ We forecast an overall GDP deflator of +0.１% QoQ in Q4.