Japanese Economy Monthly Forecast (November 2019)
Abstract
Data updates
▶ Japan’s Q3 real GDP expanded an annualized +0.2% QoQ, well below expectations.
▶ In October, industrial production, plannned dwelling construction, capital goods shipments, real exports and imports all declined. Retail sales shrank by -14.4%, more than they did after the previous tax hike.
Q4 Forecasts
▶ Our forecast for Q4 real GDP growth is an annualized -3.2%.
▶ We forecast an overall GDP deflator of +0.1% QoQ in Q4.
著者
INADA, Yoshihisa
Director of Research & Derector of Center for Quantitative Economic Analysis(CQEA), Asia Pacific Institute of Research and Professor emeritus, Konan University
Macroeconomics, Applied Econometrics, Economic Forecasting
KARAVASILEV, Yani
Associate Professor, Kwansei Gakuin University and Research Fellow, Asia Pacific Institute of Research
Economic Development, Foreign Direct Investment, International HRM, the Asian and Japanese Economies