Research

Kansai Economic Insight Quarterly Vol.45

Overview: Stagnation concerns turning into reality due to weak domestic and external demand. Lack of robust source of growth a major risk in the future.

▶ Japan’s Q3 real GDP expanded an annualized +0.2%. Domestic demand propped up growth, while net exports supressed it.

▶ Our forecast for Kansai’s real GRP growth is +0.6% in FY 2019, +0.4% in FY 2020 and +0.7% in FY 2021. Private and public demand will make a balanced contribution to growth in FY 2019. In FY 2020, public demand will be the driver of growth. The lack of robust drivers of growth might become a concern by FY 2021.

▶ We estimated economic growth by prefecture in the past fiscal years, and we compared the economic impact of the consumption tax hike this year with the previous one in 2014. We conclude that the large increase in demand indicators in September this year was largely due to a recoil from the natural disasters last year.

関連論文

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    Despite the weak outlook, increased investment across the entire region is    expected to bring about an economic turnaround

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    Download the full report for a detailed analysis.

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    –  Kansai’s economy expected to remain on an upward trajectory, but the high number of new infections and inflation remain risk factors –

    Download the full report for a detailed analysis.

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  • INADA, Yoshihisa

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    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Monthly Report(JP)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani

    ABSTRACT

    Forecast updates

    ▶ Our forecast for Japan’s real GDP growth in 2022 Q2 is an annualized +1.4%.

    ▶ We forecast a GDP deflator of -1.3% QoQ in 2022 Q2.

    Download the full report for a detailed analysis.

    PDF
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    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Monthly Report(Kansai)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani

    ABSTRACT

    – Kansai’s economy is expected to keep improving.

    Consumption is expected to pick up moderately, but rising prices might exert downward pressure –

    Download the full report for a detailed analysis.

    PDF
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    Japanese Economy Monthly Forecast (June 2022)

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    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Monthly Report(JP)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
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    Forecast updates

    ▶ Our forecast for Japan’s real GDP growth in 2022 Q2 is an annualized +0.7%.

    ▶ We forecast a GDP deflator of -1.1% QoQ in 2022 Q2.

    Download the full report for a detailed analysis.

    PDF
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     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani

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    – Kansai’s economy is expected to keep improving.

    As China’s economy is slowing down, domestic service spending is expected to drive recovery.-

    Download the full report for a detailed analysis.

    PDF
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    Japanese Economy Monthly Forecast (May 2022)

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Monthly Report(JP)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani

    ABSTRACT

    Forecast updates

    ▶ Our forecast for Japan’s real GDP growth in 2022 Q2 is an annualized -0.4%.

    ▶ We forecast a GDP deflator of -1.3% QoQ in 2022 Q2.

    Download the full report for a detailed analysis.

    PDF
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    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Quarterly Report(Kansai)

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    INADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani

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    China’s zero-COVID policy will have a major impact on Kansai’s economy.

    Download the full report for a detailed analysis.

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    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Quarterly Report(JP)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani

    ABSTRACT

    China’s zero-covid policy, high oil prices, and the weak yen pose risks to Japan’s economic recovery

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    Download the full report for a detailed analysis.

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