Research

Kansai Economic Insight Quarterly Vol.45

Abstract

Overview: Stagnation concerns turning into reality due to weak domestic and external demand. Lack of robust source of growth a major risk in the future.

▶ Japan’s Q3 real GDP expanded an annualized +0.2%. Domestic demand propped up growth, while net exports supressed it.

▶ Our forecast for Kansai’s real GRP growth is +0.6% in FY 2019, +0.4% in FY 2020 and +0.7% in FY 2021. Private and public demand will make a balanced contribution to growth in FY 2019. In FY 2020, public demand will be the driver of growth. The lack of robust drivers of growth might become a concern by FY 2021.

▶ We estimated economic growth by prefecture in the past fiscal years, and we compared the economic impact of the consumption tax hike this year with the previous one in 2014. We conclude that the large increase in demand indicators in September this year was largely due to a recoil from the natural disasters last year.

関連論文

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    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Monthly Report(JP)

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    AUTHOR : 
    KARAVASILEV, Yani / INADA, Yoshihisa

    ABSTRACT

    Forecast updates

    ▶ Our forecast for Japan’s real GDP growth in 2023 Q4 is an annualized +3.2%

    ▶ we forecast a headline inflation (GDP deflator) of +0.2% QoQ in 2023 Q4.

    Download the full report for a detailed analysis.

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  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Kansai Economic Insight Monthly Vol. 129 (January 2024)

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Monthly Report(Kansai)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani

    ABSTRACT

    Economic conditions heading downward, signs of future deterioration

    Natural disasters and declining production pose downside risks

    Download the full report for a detailed analysis.

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  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Japanese Economy Monthly Forecast (December 2023)

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Monthly Report(JP)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani

    ABSTRACT

    Forecast updates

    ▶ Our forecast for Japan’s real GDP growth in 2023 Q4 is an annualized +0.7%

    ▶ we forecast a headline inflation (GDP deflator) of +0.0% QoQ in 2023 Q4.

    Download the full report for a detailed analysis.

    PDF
  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Kansai Economic Insight Monthly Vol. 128 (December 2023)

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Monthly Report(Kansai)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani

    ABSTRACT

    Economic conditions heading downward, signs of future deterioration

    Slowdown in overseas economies and stagnant exports pose downside risks

    Download the full report for a detailed analysis.

    PDF
  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Kansai Economic Insight Quarterly No.67

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Quarterly Report(Kansai)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani

    ABSTRACT

    Revised Economic Forecast for Kansai’s GRP reflecting the second advance estimate of Q3 2023 GDP:

    +1.3% in FY 2023, +1.6% in FY 2024, +1.4% in FY 2025

    Download the full report for a detailed analysis.

     

    PDF
  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Japanese Economy: Analysis and Forecasts, No.146

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Quarterly Report(JP)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani

    ABSTRACT

    Revised growth forecast reflecting the second advance estimate for Q3 GDP

    – Real GDP growth forecast: +1.7% in FY 2023, +1.4% in FY 2024, +1.1% in FY 2025 –

    Download the full report for a detailed analysis.

    PDF
  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Japanese Economy Monthly Forecast (November 2023)

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Monthly Report(JP)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani

    ABSTRACT

    Forecast updates

    ▶ Our forecast for Japan’s real GDP growth in 2023 Q4 is an annualized -0.3%

    ▶ We forecast a GDP deflator of -0.3% QoQ in 2023 Q4.

    Download the full report for a detailed analysis.

    PDF
  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Kansai Economic Insight Monthly Vol. 127 (November 2023)

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Monthly Report(Kansai)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani

    ABSTRACT

    Economic conditions heading downward, signs of future deterioration

    Prolonged high consumer prices and stagnant trade with China pose downside risks

    Download the full report for a detailed analysis.

    PDF
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    Kansai Economic Insight Quarterly No.66

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Quarterly Report(Kansai)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani

    ABSTRACT

    Gradual recovery in Kansai continues, but the economy is entering a new phase.

    The “post-Covid” phase is over, and so is post-pandemic economic optimism.

    Download the full report for a detailed analysis.

    PDF
  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Japanese Economy: Analysis and Forecasts, No.145

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Quarterly Report(JP)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani

    ABSTRACT

    Persistently high inflation and weak private demand

    – Real GDP growth forecast: +1.5% in FY 2023, +1.2% in FY 2024, +1.0% in FY 2025 –

    Download the full report for a detailed analysis.

    PDF