Research

Kansai Economic Insight Quarterly Vol.45

Overview: Stagnation concerns turning into reality due to weak domestic and external demand. Lack of robust source of growth a major risk in the future.

▶ Japan’s Q3 real GDP expanded an annualized +0.2%. Domestic demand propped up growth, while net exports supressed it.

▶ Our forecast for Kansai’s real GRP growth is +0.6% in FY 2019, +0.4% in FY 2020 and +0.7% in FY 2021. Private and public demand will make a balanced contribution to growth in FY 2019. In FY 2020, public demand will be the driver of growth. The lack of robust drivers of growth might become a concern by FY 2021.

▶ We estimated economic growth by prefecture in the past fiscal years, and we compared the economic impact of the consumption tax hike this year with the previous one in 2014. We conclude that the large increase in demand indicators in September this year was largely due to a recoil from the natural disasters last year.

関連論文

  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Japanese Economy: Analysis and Forecasts, No.128

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Quarterly Report(JP)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani

    ABSTRACT

    V-shaped recovery unlikely following the Covid-19 pandemic -Social distancing measures to slow down recovery-

    ▶ Japan’s 2020 Q1 real GDP growth was an annualized -3.4% QoQ, the second consecutive quarter in negative territory.

    ▶ We expect an even steeper slump in private consumption in 2020 Q2, due to the government’s state of emergency declaration in April.

    ▶ As social distancing is expected to continue even after the state of emergency is lifted, a swift (V-shaped) recovery in production and consumption seems rather unlikely.

    ▶ We have updated our forecast for real GDP growth to -5.6% in FY 2020. After two years of negative growth in FY 2019 and FY 2020, we forecast a positive growth of +2.5% in FY 2021.

    ▶ We forecast a core CPI inflation of -0.4% in FY 2020, and +0.4% in FY 2021. This forecast reflects stagnant domestic and external demand, as well as the combined impact of the decline in gasoline prices, the government’s free childcare program, and the partial or complete elimination of tertiary education fees announced in April this year, which will all exert substantial deflationary pressure.

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  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Japanese Economy Monthly Forecast (May 2020)

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Monthly Report(JP)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani

    ABSTRACT

    Forecasts updates
    ▶ Our latest expenditure-side forecast for Japan’s real GDP growth in 2020 Q2 is an annualized -14.6% QoQ. Our production-side forecast is an annualized -7.4% QoQ. The average of the two is an annualized -11.0%.
    ▶ Our forecasts for the private final consumption expenditure deflator and the domestic demand deflator in 2020 Q1 are both -0.3% QoQ. However, as the terms of trade are improving, we forecast an overall GDP deflator of +0.7% QoQ.

    Download the full report for a detailed analysis.

    PDF
  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Kansai Economic Insight Monthly Vol. 85 (May 2020)

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Monthly Report(Kansai)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani

    ABSTRACT

    Outlook: Kansai’s economy likely to remain on a downward trajectory

    Download the report for a detailed analysis.

    PDF
  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Kansai Economic Insight Quarterly Vol.49

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Quarterly Report(Kansai)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani

    ABSTRACT

    Covid-19 to further debilitate Kansai’s economy: a slump in private and external demand.

    ▶ Our forecast for Kansai’s real GRP growth is -5.1% in FY 2020 and +2.6% in FY 2021.

    ▶ We estimate that the economic loss caused by the state of emergency in Kansai will be JPY 154.3 billion in terms of private consumption, JPY 825.2 billion in terms of private capital investment, and JPY 3,211.8 billion in terms of exports, adding up to a total GRP loss of JPY 3.75 trillion. 158 thousand employees are expected to lose their jobs.

    PDF
  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Japanese Economy Monthly Forecast (April 2020)

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Monthly Report(JP)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani

    ABSTRACT

    Forecasts updates
    ▶ Our latest expenditure-side forecast for Japan’s real GDP growth in 2020 Q1is an annualized -2.7%. Our production-side forecast is an annualized +0.3%. The average of the two forecasts is an annualized -1.2%.
    ▶ Our forecasts for the private final consumption expenditure deflator and the domestic demand deflator in 2020 Q1 are both +0.1% QoQ. As the terms of trade are deteriorating, we forecast an overall GDP deflator of 0.0% QoQ.

    Download the full report for a detailed analysis.

    PDF
  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Kansai Economic Insight Monthly Vol. 84 (April 2020)

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Monthly Report(Kansai)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani

    ABSTRACT

    Outlook: Kansai’s economy is likely to remain on a downward trajectory

    ▶  Production: Production declined in February.
    ▶  International trade: In March, Kansai’s trade surplus was smaller than the previous month.
    ▶  Business confidence: The Economy Watcher DI in March reached an all-time low.
    ▶  Wages: Both nominal and real wages kept declining in January.
    ▶  Labor market: In February, the job offers-to-applicants ratio kept deteriorating, and the unemployment rate kept increasing.
    ▶  Private Consumption: In February, department store sales plummeted while supermarket sales rose due to stockpiling in the face of the coronavirus pandemic.
    ▶  Housing: The number of new housing starts kept decreasing in February.
    ▶  Construction: Construction investments in February kept expanding, albeit at a decelerating pace. The contract amount for public works projects in March increased.
    ▶   Inbound tourism: Due to the impact of the coronavirus, the number of international arrivals at Kansai International Airport in March plunged -95.1% year-on-year.
    ▶  Chinese economy: China saw its Q1 GDP shrink for the first time since quarterly GDP statistics started in 1992.

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  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    The number of foreign visitors and visit ratio by prefecture March report

    Insight

    Insight » Inbound

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / MATSUBAYASHI, Yoichi / NOMURA, Ryosuke

    ABSTRACT

    To a faster reading of “the signs of change” in tourism

    Advance estimation of monthly indexes: March report

    PDF
  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    The number of foreign visitors and visit ratio by prefecture February report

    Insight

    Insight » Inbound

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / MATSUBAYASHI, Yoichi / NOMURA, Ryosuke

    ABSTRACT

    To a faster reading of “the signs of change” in tourism

    Advance estimation of monthly indexes: February report

    PDF
  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    The number of foreign visitors and visit ratio by prefecture January report

    Insight

    Insight » Inbound

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / MATSUBAYASHI, Yoichi / NOMURA, Ryosuke

    ABSTRACT

    To a faster reading of “the signs of change” in tourism

    Advance estimation of monthly indexes: January report

    PDF
  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Japanese Economy Monthly Forecast (March 2020)

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Monthly Report(JP)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani

    ABSTRACT

    Data updates

    ▶ Although production increased for the third consecutive month in February, its recovery from the October-November slump has been sluggish.
    ▶ Spending on goods (40% of total private final consumption expenditure) increased in February. However, statistics on spending on services, which have more weight and might have been affected substantially by Covid-19, have not been released yet, making it hard to draw conclusions on private consumption trends.
    ▶ Private housing, private capital investment and changes in private inventories were all bearish in 2020 Q1.
    ▶ February imports were hit particularly hard by Covid-19. That caused an abrupt expansion in net exports, which propped up GDP growth. However, as the global economy entered a synchronized slowdown in March, we expect that exports will decline, which will worsen the trade balance.

    2020 Q1 Forecasts
    ▶ Our forecast for 2020 Q1 real GDP growth is an annualized -0.2% QoQ.
    ▶ However, real total demand growth (i.e. domestic demand plus imports) is an annualized -4.8%.
    ▶ We forecast an overall GDP deflator of -0.1% QoQ in 2020 Q1.

    PDF