Research

Japanese Economy Monthly Forecast (December 2019)

Abstract

Data updates
▶ There was a major upward revision in Japan’s 2019 Q3 real GDP growth (+0.2%→+1.8% QoQ, annualized). The updated official figure coincides with APIR’s initial forecast.
▶ However, Q4 looks gloomy. The October-November averages of industrial production indices, plannned dwelling construction, capital goods shipments, exports, imports, and sales by large retailers all declined relative to the Q3 averages.

2019 Q4 Forecasts
▶ Our forecast for Q4 real GDP growth is an annualized -4.5% QoQ (a downward revision from our previous forecast).
▶ We forecast an overall GDP deflator of +0.1% QoQ in Q4 (no change from our previous forecast).

関連論文

  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Economic ripple effects of Osaka-Kansai Expo -Economic impact of the Greater EXPO and estimates based on the latest data.

    Insight

    Insight » Trend Watch

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / NOMURA, Ryosuke / TAKABAYASHI, Kikuo / IRIE, Hiroaki / SHIMOYAMA, Akira / SHIMODA, Mitsuru

    ABSTRACT

    The objective of this paper is to present an estimate of the economic ripple effects of the Osaka-Kansai Expo based on the most recent data on Expo-related project costs and other pertinent factors. It argues that an expanded Expo (a ‘Greater Expo’) is of great importance. The background to the estimates presented in this analysis include the accelerating inflation rate as well as increasing supply constraints due to the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic and the invasion of Ukraine by Russia. Despite these challenging circumstances, we maintain that hosting the Osaka-Kansai Expo is of great significance. The Expo represents an invaluable opportunity for the Kansai economy, and by extension, the Japanese economy, to embark on a path of recovery. By seizing this opportunity, we can make a valuable investment in the future, ensuring a successful turnaround. Below is a summary of the results and implications of this analysis:

     

    1. The final demand for the current period is estimated to be JPY 727.5 billion for Expo-related projects and JPY 891.3 billion for consumption expenditures. The former is estimated to be JPY 138.1 billion (+23.4%) and the latter JPY 104.7 billion (+13.3%) higher than our previous forecast.
    2. The economic ripple effects were calculated based on the final demand derived from the APIR’s Interregional Input-Output Table for Kansai. The induced production amount is JPY 2,745.7 billion in the baseline scenario, which assumes that the Expo will take place only at the Yumeshima site. In the Greater Expo Case 1, the induced production amount is JPY 3,238.4 billion, which assumes an increased number of nights by visitors related to events outside the Yumeshima site. Finally, in the Greater Expo Case 2, the induced production amount is JPY 3,366.7 billion. Case 2 assumes an increase in repeat visitors. These amounts are respectively 15.6% (JPY 369.8 billion), 16.2% (JPY 450.9 billion), and 16.8% (JPY 484.9 billion) higher than our previous forecast.
    3. Our estimates are based on calculations of final demand generated under a specific industrial structure. Since we assume that there are no distinct supply constraints, the results of this analysis should be considered rough estimates.
    4. It is imperative to alleviate supply constraints in order to achieve the projected outcomes. To this end, the utilization of DX (‘Digital Transformation’) will be pivotal. DX will enhance Japan’s potential growth rate. Additionally, in order to attract overseas visitors, it is crucial to refine the availability of travel options in conjunction with the Expo.
    PDF
  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Japanese Economy Monthly Forecast (April 2024)

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Monthly Report(JP)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani

    ABSTRACT

    Forecast updates

    ▶ Our forecast for Japan’s real GDP growth in 2024 Q1 is an annualized -2.9%

    ▶ we forecast a headline inflation (GDP deflator) of +0.1% QoQ in 2024 Q1.

    Download the full report for a detailed analysis.

    PDF
  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Kansai Economic Insight Monthly Vol. 132 (April 2024)

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Monthly Report(Kansai)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani

    ABSTRACT

    Economic conditions are changing, signs of future deterioration:

    Stagnant production and high consumer prices pose downside risks

    Download the full report for a detailed analysis.

    PDF
  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Kansai Economic Insight Monthly Vol. 131 (March 2024)

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Monthly Report(Kansai)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani

    ABSTRACT

    Economic conditions are changing, but the outlook shows signs of bottoming out:

    Slow production recovery poses downward risk to the economy

    Download the full report for a detailed analysis.

    PDF
  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Japanese Economy Monthly Forecast (March 2024)

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Monthly Report(JP)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani

    ABSTRACT

    Forecast updates

    ▶ Our forecast for Japan’s real GDP growth in 2024 Q1 is an annualized -3.0%

    ▶ we forecast a headline inflation (GDP deflator) of +0.0% QoQ in 2024 Q1.

    Download the full report for a detailed analysis.

    PDF
  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Japanese Economy Monthly Forecast (February 2024)

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Monthly Report(JP)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani

    ABSTRACT

    Forecast updates

    ▶ Our forecast for Japan’s real GDP growth in 2024 Q1 is an annualized +0.2%

    ▶ we forecast a headline inflation (GDP deflator) of -0.6% QoQ in 2024 Q1.

    Download the full report for a detailed analysis.

    PDF
  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Kansai Economic Insight Monthly Vol. 130 (February 2024)

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Monthly Report(Kansai)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani

    ABSTRACT

    Economic conditions heading downward, signs of future deterioration

    Declining automobile production and the slowdown of China’s economy pose downside risks

    Download the full report for a detailed analysis.

    PDF
  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Kansai Economic Insight Quarterly No.68

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Quarterly Report(Kansai)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani

    ABSTRACT

    Revised Economic Forecast for Kansai’s GRP reflecting the second advance estimate of Q4 2023 GDP:

    +1.4% in FY 2023, +1.4% in FY 2024, +1.5% in FY 2025

    Download the full report for a detailed analysis.

     

    PDF
  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Japanese Economy: Analysis and Forecasts, No.147

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Quarterly Report(JP)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani

    ABSTRACT

    Revised growth forecast reflecting the second advance estimate for Q4 GDP

    – Real GDP growth forecast: +1.3% in FY 2023, +0.8% in FY 2024, +1.1% in FY 2025 –

    Download the full report for a detailed analysis.

    PDF
  • KARAVASILEV, Yani

    Japanese Economy Monthly Forecast (January 2024)

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Monthly Report(JP)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    KARAVASILEV, Yani / INADA, Yoshihisa

    ABSTRACT

    Forecast updates

    ▶ Our forecast for Japan’s real GDP growth in 2023 Q4 is an annualized +3.2%

    ▶ we forecast a headline inflation (GDP deflator) of +0.2% QoQ in 2023 Q4.

    Download the full report for a detailed analysis.

    PDF