Japanese Economy Monthly Forecast (December 2019)

Data updates
▶ There was a major upward revision in Japan’s 2019 Q3 real GDP growth (+0.2%→+1.8% QoQ, annualized). The updated official figure coincides with APIR’s initial forecast.
▶ However, Q4 looks gloomy. The October-November averages of industrial production indices, plannned dwelling construction, capital goods shipments, exports, imports, and sales by large retailers all declined relative to the Q3 averages.

2019 Q4 Forecasts
▶ Our forecast for Q4 real GDP growth is an annualized -4.5% QoQ (a downward revision from our previous forecast).
▶ We forecast an overall GDP deflator of +0.1% QoQ in Q4 (no change from our previous forecast).