Japanese Economy Monthly Forecast (December 2019)
Data updates
▶ There was a major upward revision in Japan’s 2019 Q3 real GDP growth (+0.2%→+1.8% QoQ, annualized). The updated official figure coincides with APIR’s initial forecast.
▶ However, Q4 looks gloomy. The October-November averages of industrial production indices, plannned dwelling construction, capital goods shipments, exports, imports, and sales by large retailers all declined relative to the Q3 averages.
2019 Q4 Forecasts
▶ Our forecast for Q4 real GDP growth is an annualized -4.5% QoQ (a downward revision from our previous forecast).
▶ We forecast an overall GDP deflator of +0.１% QoQ in Q4 (no change from our previous forecast).
著者
Director, Center for Quantitative Economic Analysis INADA, Yoshihisa
Professor emeritus, Konan University
Macroeconomics, Applied Econometrics, Economic Forecasting
KARAVASILEV, Yani
Researcher
foreign direct investment, international recruitment, corporate agenda setting
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Kansai Economic Insight Monthly Vol. 117 (January 2023)
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▶ We forecast a GDP deflator of +2.0% QoQ in 2022 Q4.
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Japanese Economy: Analysis and Forecasts, No.141
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Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Quarterly Report(JP)
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ABSTRACT
Revised Outlook for Japan’s Economy Reflecting the Second Advance 2022 Q3 GDP Estimate
– Real GDP growth forecast: +1.5% in FY 2022, +1.1% in FY 2023, +1.4% in FY 2024 –
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Kansai Economic Insight Monthly Vol. 116 (December 2022)
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– Kansai’s economy expected to remain on an upward trajectory
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Japanese Economy Monthly Forecast (December 2022)
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ABSTRACT
Forecast updates
▶ Our forecast for Japan’s real GDP growth in 2022 Q4 is an annualized +1.5%
▶ We forecast a GDP deflator of +1.9% QoQ in 2022 Q4.
Download the full report for a detailed analysis.