Kansai Economic Insight Monthly Vol. 81 (January 2020)
Summary: Kansai’s economy is deteriorating but likely to level off
▶ Production: Production declined for the second consecutive month in November.
▶ International trade: Although Kansai logged a trade surplus in December, both exports and imports kept shrinking.
▶ Business confidence: The Economy Watcher DI improved in December. Hopwever, it remains low.
▶ Wages: Both nominal and real wages kept declining in October.
▶ Labor market: In November, the effective job offers-to-applicants ratio deteriorated. Although the unemployment rate decreased , the labor force population shrank for the first time in two months.
▶ Consumption: Large retailers’ revenues kept declining in November. The effect of the consumption tax hike has not worn off completely.
▶ Housing: The number of new housing starts in November decreased for the fourth month in a row.
▶ Construction: Construction investments marked the the 21st straight month of expansion in November.
▶ Inbound tourism: The number of international arrivals at Kansai International Airport in December declined for the first time in 15 months.
▶ Chinese economy: China’s GDP expanded +6.1% in 2019, reaching the lower bound of the government’s target. Although China and the US signed a “phase one” trade deal in January 2020, structural problems will remain a major issue.
著者
Director, Center for Quantitative Economic Analysis INADA, Yoshihisa
Professor emeritus, Konan University
Macroeconomics, Applied Econometrics, Economic Forecasting
KARAVASILEV, Yani
Researcher
foreign direct investment, international recruitment, corporate agenda setting
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