Research

Kansai Economic Insight Monthly Vol. 82 (February 2020)

Summary: Kansai’s economy is deteriorating but likely to level off

▶  Production: Production in December increased for the first time in three months. However, overall Q4 production registered the largest decline since the Global Financial Crisis.
▶  International trade: In January, Kansai logged a trade deficit. Both exports and imports kept shrinking.
▶  Business confidence: The Economy Watcher DI improved in January. However, concerns about the economic impact of the coronavirus epidemic are growing.
▶  Wages: Both nominal and real wages kept declining in November.
▶  Labor market: In December, the effective job offers-to-applicants ratio improved, but the unemployment rate increased.
▶  Private Consumption: Large retailers’ sales kept declining in December. The recovery from the consumption tax hike in October is taking longer than it did in after the tax hike in April 2014.
▶  Housing: Although the number of new housing starts in December increased for the first time in five months, 2019 saw an overall decline.
▶  Construction: Construction investments marked the the 22st straight month of expansion in December. The contract amount for public works projects in January increased in all prefectures.
▶   Inbound tourism: The number of international arrivals at Kansai International Airport in January increased for the first time in two months. The impact of the coronavirus is yet to be felt.
▶  Chinese economy: The release of key statistics has been delayed due to the coronavirus outbreak. Excluding the Hubei province, factories across China are gradually resuming operations. Concerns about the future of the Chinese economy are growing.

関連論文

  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Kansai Economic Insight Quarterly No.60

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Quarterly Report(Kansai)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani

    ABSTRACT

    Kansai’s economy is picking up, but the speed of     recovery varies significantly across industries.

    Despite the weak outlook, increased investment across the entire region is    expected to bring about an economic turnaround

    Download the full report for a detailed analysis.

    PDF
  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Japanese Economy: Analysis and Forecasts, No.139

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Quarterly Report(JP)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani

    ABSTRACT

    Growth rate revised downward to reflect weak export prospects

    – Real GDP growth forecast: +1.5% in FY2022, +1.5% in FY2023 –

    Download the full report for a detailed analysis.

    PDF
  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Kansai Economic Insight Monthly Vol. 112 (August 2022)

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Monthly Report(Kansai)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani

    ABSTRACT

    –  Kansai’s economy expected to remain on an upward trajectory, but the high number of new infections and inflation remain risk factors –

    Download the full report for a detailed analysis.

    PDF
  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Japanese Economy Monthly Forecast (July 2022)

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Monthly Report(JP)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani

    ABSTRACT

    Forecast updates

    ▶ Our forecast for Japan’s real GDP growth in 2022 Q2 is an annualized +1.4%.

    ▶ We forecast a GDP deflator of -1.3% QoQ in 2022 Q2.

    Download the full report for a detailed analysis.

    PDF
  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Kansai Economic Insight Monthly Vol. 111 (July 2022)

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Monthly Report(Kansai)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani

    ABSTRACT

    – Kansai’s economy is expected to keep improving.

    Consumption is expected to pick up moderately, but rising prices might exert downward pressure –

    Download the full report for a detailed analysis.

    PDF
  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Japanese Economy Monthly Forecast (June 2022)

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Monthly Report(JP)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani

    ABSTRACT

    Forecast updates

    ▶ Our forecast for Japan’s real GDP growth in 2022 Q2 is an annualized +0.7%.

    ▶ We forecast a GDP deflator of -1.1% QoQ in 2022 Q2.

    Download the full report for a detailed analysis.

    PDF
  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Kansai Economic Insight Monthly Vol. 110 (June 2022)

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Monthly Report(Kansai)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani

    ABSTRACT

    – Kansai’s economy is expected to keep improving.

    As China’s economy is slowing down, domestic service spending is expected to drive recovery.-

    Download the full report for a detailed analysis.

    PDF
  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Japanese Economy Monthly Forecast (May 2022)

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Monthly Report(JP)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani

    ABSTRACT

    Forecast updates

    ▶ Our forecast for Japan’s real GDP growth in 2022 Q2 is an annualized -0.4%.

    ▶ We forecast a GDP deflator of -1.3% QoQ in 2022 Q2.

    Download the full report for a detailed analysis.

    PDF
  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Kansai Economic Insight Quarterly No.59

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Quarterly Report(Kansai)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani

    ABSTRACT

    Overseas factors casting a shadow on the normalization of economic activity.

    China’s zero-COVID policy will have a major impact on Kansai’s economy.

    Download the full report for a detailed analysis.

    PDF
  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Japanese Economy: Analysis and Forecasts, No.138

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Quarterly Report(JP)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani

    ABSTRACT

    China’s zero-covid policy, high oil prices, and the weak yen pose risks to Japan’s economic recovery

    – Real GDP growth forecast: +1.9% in FY2022, +1.7% in FY2023 –

    Download the full report for a detailed analysis.

    PDF