Research

Kansai Economic Insight Quarterly Vol.48

Slump in private demand to precipitate recession in FY2019-2020

-Forecast update reflecting the latest GDP estimates and the impact of the coronavirus-

▶Our forecast for Kansai’s real GRP growth is -0.2% in FY 2019, -0.5% in FY 2020 and +1.1% in FY 2021. FY2019 growth was revised down by -0.3%pt, and FY2020 growth by -0.7%pt, reflecting the impact of social distancing, self-quarantines and reduced economic activities due to the coronavirus outbreak.

関連論文

  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Kansai Economic Insight Monthly Vol. 83 (March 2020)

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Monthly Report(Kansai)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani

    ABSTRACT

    Outlook: Kansai’s economy is likely to remain on a downward trajectory

    ▶  Production: Although production increased in January, it has not recovered from the October-November slump.
    ▶  International trade: In February, Kansai’s trade deficit turned into a surplus due to the slump in imports from coronavirus-hit China.
    ▶  Business confidence: The Economy Watcher DI in February reached its lowest level since April 2011 (after the Great East Japan Earthquake).
    ▶  Wages: Both nominal and real wages kept declining in December.
    ▶  Labor market: In January, the job offers-to-applicants ratio deteriorated, and the unemployment rate increased.
    ▶  Private Consumption: Department store and supermarket sales in January kept declining. Duty-free sales plunged -71.9% in February.
    ▶  Housing: The number of new housing starts decreased in January.
    ▶  Construction: Construction investments kept expanding in January, but the growth is decelerating. The contract amount for public works projects in February decreased.
    ▶   Inbound tourism: Due to the impact of the coronavirus, the number of international arrivals at Kansai International Airport in February slumped -66.0% year-on-year.
    ▶  Chinese economy: Coronavirus-hit China saw its manufacturing PMI drop to a historic low of 35.7 in February, a level lower than the one registered during the Global Financial Crisis.

    PDF
  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Japanese Economy Monthly Forecast (February 2020)

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Monthly Report(JP)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani

    ABSTRACT

    Data updates
    ▶ Most major economic indicators deteriorated in January, including residential construction, capital goods shipments, private capital investment, exports, imports, and large retailers’ sales. Inventories piled up as industrial production increased slightly. The recovery in production, however, has been slow since the consumption tax hike last October.

    2020 Q1 Forecasts
    ▶ Our forecast for 2020 Q1 real GDP growth is an annualized -0.3% QoQ.
    ▶ We forecast an overall GDP deflator of -0.0% QoQ in 2020 Q1.

    PDF
  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Kansai Economic Insight Monthly Vol. 82 (February 2020)

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Monthly Report(Kansai)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani

    ABSTRACT

    Summary: Kansai’s economy is deteriorating but likely to level off

    ▶  Production: Production in December increased for the first time in three months. However, overall Q4 production registered the largest decline since the Global Financial Crisis.
    ▶  International trade: In January, Kansai logged a trade deficit. Both exports and imports kept shrinking.
    ▶  Business confidence: The Economy Watcher DI improved in January. However, concerns about the economic impact of the coronavirus epidemic are growing.
    ▶  Wages: Both nominal and real wages kept declining in November.
    ▶  Labor market: In December, the effective job offers-to-applicants ratio improved, but the unemployment rate increased.
    ▶  Private Consumption: Large retailers’ sales kept declining in December. The recovery from the consumption tax hike in October is taking longer than it did in after the tax hike in April 2014.
    ▶  Housing: Although the number of new housing starts in December increased for the first time in five months, 2019 saw an overall decline.
    ▶  Construction: Construction investments marked the the 22st straight month of expansion in December. The contract amount for public works projects in January increased in all prefectures.
    ▶   Inbound tourism: The number of international arrivals at Kansai International Airport in January increased for the first time in two months. The impact of the coronavirus is yet to be felt.
    ▶  Chinese economy: The release of key statistics has been delayed due to the coronavirus outbreak. Excluding the Hubei province, factories across China are gradually resuming operations. Concerns about the future of the Chinese economy are growing.

    PDF
  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Japanese Economy Monthly Forecast (January 2020)

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Monthly Report(JP)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani

    ABSTRACT

    Data updates
    ▶ All major economic indicators deteriorated in 2019 Q4, including industrial production, plannned residential construction, capital goods shipments, private capital investment, exports, imports, and large retailers’ revenues.
    ▶ Inventories piled up due to the reactionary fall in demand after the consumption tax hike in October.

    2019 Q4 Forecasts
    ▶ Our forecast for 2019 Q4 real GDP growth is an annualized -4.4% QoQ.
    ▶ We forecast an overall GDP deflator of +0.1% QoQ in 2019 Q4.

    PDF
  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    The number of foreign visitors and visit ratio by prefecture December report

    Insight

    Insight » Inbound

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / MATSUBAYASHI, Yoichi / NOMURA, Ryosuke

    ABSTRACT

    To a faster reading of “the signs of change” in tourism

    Advance estimation of monthly indexes: December report

    PDF
  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Kansai Economic Insight Monthly Vol. 81 (January 2020)

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Monthly Report(Kansai)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani

    ABSTRACT

    Summary: Kansai’s economy is deteriorating but likely to level off

    ▶  Production: Production declined for the second consecutive month in November.
    ▶  International trade: Although Kansai logged a trade surplus in December, both exports and imports kept shrinking.
    ▶  Business confidence: The Economy Watcher DI improved in December. Hopwever, it remains low.
    ▶  Wages: Both nominal and real wages kept declining in October.
    ▶  Labor market: In November, the effective job offers-to-applicants ratio deteriorated. Although the unemployment rate decreased , the labor force population shrank for the first time in two months.
    ▶  Consumption: Large retailers’ revenues kept declining in November. The effect of the consumption tax hike has not worn off completely.
    ▶  Housing: The number of new housing starts in November decreased for the fourth month in a row.
    ▶  Construction: Construction investments marked the the 21st straight month of expansion in November.
    ▶   Inbound tourism:  The number of international arrivals at Kansai International Airport in December declined for the first time in 15 months.
    ▶  Chinese economy: China’s GDP expanded +6.1% in 2019, reaching the lower bound of the government’s target. Although China and the US signed a “phase one” trade deal in January 2020, structural problems will remain a major issue.

    PDF
  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    The number of foreign visitors and visit ratio by prefecture November report

    Insight

    Insight » Inbound

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / MATSUBAYASHI, Yoichi / NOMURA, Ryosuke

    ABSTRACT

    To a faster reading of “the signs of change” in tourism

    Advance estimation of monthly indexes: November report

    PDF
  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    The number of foreign visitors and visit ratio by prefecture October report

    Insight

    Insight » Inbound

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / MATSUBAYASHI, Yoichi / NOMURA, Ryosuke

    ABSTRACT

    To a faster reading of “the signs of change” in tourism

    Advance estimation of monthly indexes: October report

    PDF
  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Japanese Economy Monthly Forecast (December 2019)

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Monthly Report(JP)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani

    ABSTRACT

    Data updates
    ▶ There was a major upward revision in Japan’s 2019 Q3 real GDP growth (+0.2%→+1.8% QoQ, annualized). The updated official figure coincides with APIR’s initial forecast.
    ▶ However, Q4 looks gloomy. The October-November averages of industrial production indices, plannned dwelling construction, capital goods shipments, exports, imports, and sales by large retailers all declined relative to the Q3 averages.

    2019 Q4 Forecasts
    ▶ Our forecast for Q4 real GDP growth is an annualized -4.5% QoQ (a downward revision from our previous forecast).
    ▶ We forecast an overall GDP deflator of +0.1% QoQ in Q4 (no change from our previous forecast).

    PDF
  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Kansai Economic Insight Monthly Vol. 80 (December 2019)

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Monthly Report(Kansai)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani

    ABSTRACT

    Summary: Kansai’s economy is deteriorating but likely to level off

    ▶  Production: Production in October declined after expanding in September.
    ▶  International trade: Although Kansai logged a trade surplus in November, exports and imports kept shrinking.
    ▶  Business confidence: The DI improved in November but it remains low.
    ▶  Wages: Both nominal and real wages kept declining in September.
    ▶  Labor market: The number of job openings decreased and unemployment increased in October.
    ▶  Consumption: Large retailers’ revenues in October slumped after the consumption tax hike.
    ▶  Housing: The number of new housing starts in October declined.
    ▶  Construction: The monetary value of construction investments in October kept rising.
    ▶   Inbound tourism: International arrivals at KIX in November grew despite the decline in Korean visitor numbers.
    ▶  Chinese economy: China’s PMI improved in November, surpassing the cutoff level of 50 for the first time in seven months. However, the future outlook remains unclear.

     

     

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