Kansai Economic Insight Monthly Vol. 83 (March 2020)
Abstract
Outlook: Kansai’s economy is likely to remain on a downward trajectory
▶ Production: Although production increased in January, it has not recovered from the October-November slump.
▶ International trade: In February, Kansai’s trade deficit turned into a surplus due to the slump in imports from coronavirus-hit China.
▶ Business confidence: The Economy Watcher DI in February reached its lowest level since April 2011 (after the Great East Japan Earthquake).
▶ Wages: Both nominal and real wages kept declining in December.
▶ Labor market: In January, the job offers-to-applicants ratio deteriorated, and the unemployment rate increased.
▶ Private Consumption: Department store and supermarket sales in January kept declining. Duty-free sales plunged -71.9% in February.
▶ Housing: The number of new housing starts decreased in January.
▶ Construction: Construction investments kept expanding in January, but the growth is decelerating. The contract amount for public works projects in February decreased.
▶ Inbound tourism: Due to the impact of the coronavirus, the number of international arrivals at Kansai International Airport in February slumped -66.0% year-on-year.
▶ Chinese economy: Coronavirus-hit China saw its manufacturing PMI drop to a historic low of 35.7 in February, a level lower than the one registered during the Global Financial Crisis.
著者
INADA, Yoshihisa
Director of Research & Derector of Center for Quantitative Economic Analysis(CQEA), Asia Pacific Institute of Research and Professor emeritus, Konan University
Macroeconomics, Applied Econometrics, Economic Forecasting
KARAVASILEV, Yani
Associate Professor, Kwansei Gakuin University and Research Fellow, Asia Pacific Institute of Research
Economic Development, Foreign Direct Investment, International HRM, the Asian and Japanese Economies