Japanese Economy Monthly Forecast (March 2020)
Data updates
▶ Although production increased for the third consecutive month in February, its recovery from the October-November slump has been sluggish.
▶ Spending on goods (40% of total private final consumption expenditure) increased in February. However, statistics on spending on services, which have more weight and might have been affected substantially by Covid-19, have not been released yet, making it hard to draw conclusions on private consumption trends.
▶ Private housing, private capital investment and changes in private inventories were all bearish in 2020 Q1.
▶ February imports were hit particularly hard by Covid-19. That caused an abrupt expansion in net exports, which propped up GDP growth. However, as the global economy entered a synchronized slowdown in March, we expect that exports will decline, which will worsen the trade balance.
2020 Q1 Forecasts
▶ Our forecast for 2020 Q1 real GDP growth is an annualized -0.2% QoQ.
▶ However, real total demand growth (i.e. domestic demand plus imports) is an annualized -4.8%.
▶ We forecast an overall GDP deflator of -0.1% QoQ in 2020 Q1.
著者
Director, Center for Quantitative Economic Analysis INADA, Yoshihisa
Professor emeritus, Konan University
Macroeconomics, Applied Econometrics, Economic Forecasting
KARAVASILEV, Yani
Researcher
foreign direct investment, international recruitment, corporate agenda setting
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