Japanese Economy: Analysis and Forecasts, No.128
Abstract
V-shaped recovery unlikely following the Covid-19 pandemic -Social distancing measures to slow down recovery-
▶ Japan’s 2020 Q1 real GDP growth was an annualized -3.4% QoQ, the second consecutive quarter in negative territory.
▶ We expect an even steeper slump in private consumption in 2020 Q2, due to the government’s state of emergency declaration in April.
▶ As social distancing is expected to continue even after the state of emergency is lifted, a swift (V-shaped) recovery in production and consumption seems rather unlikely.
▶ We have updated our forecast for real GDP growth to -5.6% in FY 2020. After two years of negative growth in FY 2019 and FY 2020, we forecast a positive growth of +2.5% in FY 2021.
▶ We forecast a core CPI inflation of -0.4% in FY 2020, and +0.4% in FY 2021. This forecast reflects stagnant domestic and external demand, as well as the combined impact of the decline in gasoline prices, the government’s free childcare program, and the partial or complete elimination of tertiary education fees announced in April this year, which will all exert substantial deflationary pressure.
著者
Director, Center for Quantitative Economic Analysis INADA, Yoshihisa
Professor emeritus, Konan University
Macroeconomics, Applied Econometrics, Economic Forecasting
KARAVASILEV, Yani
Researcher
foreign direct investment, international recruitment, corporate agenda setting
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Turning Kansai into an Advanced Sustainable Tourism Region
Research Projects
Research Project » 2023FiscalYear » Japan and Kansai economy
ABSTRACT
Research leader:
Yoshihisa Inada(Director of Research & Director of the Center for Quantitative Economic Analysis, Asia Pacific Institute of Research/Professor Emeritus, Konan University)
Research outline:
Demand by inbound tourism in Kansai is recovering rapidly after the Covid-19 pandemic, and is expected to grow further before Expo 2025. In view of this, this project aims to contribute to the formulation of future tourism strategies by local governments, DMOs, and other actors, by analyzing current issues facing the tourism industry and exploring potential solutions. Our focus is quantitative analysis, and the creation of an index which can quantify and measure the brand power of tourism resources.
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Toward the Sustainable Development of the Kansai Economy: The Osaka-Kansai Expo
Research Projects
Research Project » 2023FiscalYear » Japan and Kansai economy
ABSTRACT
Research leader:
Yoshihisa Inada (Director of Research & Director of the Center for Quantitative Economic Analysis, Asia Pacific Institute of Research/Professor Emeritus, Konan University)
Research outline:
The aim of this project is to investigate ways to attract investment and people to the Kansai region, by making reference to cities that have achieved economic growth. Furthermore, it aims to analyze how the Web society, including education and human resource development, has to change in order for elementary and junior high school students who will experience the Osaka-Kansai Expo in 2025 (the Expo 2025 generation) to become active players in the world by 2050.