Research

Japanese Economy: Analysis and Forecasts, No.128

Abstract

V-shaped recovery unlikely following the Covid-19 pandemic -Social distancing measures to slow down recovery-

▶ Japan’s 2020 Q1 real GDP growth was an annualized -3.4% QoQ, the second consecutive quarter in negative territory.

▶ We expect an even steeper slump in private consumption in 2020 Q2, due to the government’s state of emergency declaration in April.

▶ As social distancing is expected to continue even after the state of emergency is lifted, a swift (V-shaped) recovery in production and consumption seems rather unlikely.

▶ We have updated our forecast for real GDP growth to -5.6% in FY 2020. After two years of negative growth in FY 2019 and FY 2020, we forecast a positive growth of +2.5% in FY 2021.

▶ We forecast a core CPI inflation of -0.4% in FY 2020, and +0.4% in FY 2021. This forecast reflects stagnant domestic and external demand, as well as the combined impact of the decline in gasoline prices, the government’s free childcare program, and the partial or complete elimination of tertiary education fees announced in April this year, which will all exert substantial deflationary pressure.

関連論文

  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Japanese Economy Monthly Forecast (October 2023)

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Monthly Report(JP)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani

    ABSTRACT

    Forecast updates

    ▶ Our forecast for Japan’s real GDP growth in 2023 Q3 is an annualized -1.8%

    ▶ We forecast a GDP deflator of +0.7% QoQ in 2023 Q3.

    Download the full report for a detailed analysis.

    PDF
  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Kansai Economic Insight Monthly Vol. 126 (October 2023)

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Monthly Report(Kansai)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani

    ABSTRACT

    Signs of change in current and future economic conditions:

    Inflation and stagnant exports pose downside risks

    Download the full report for a detailed analysis.

    PDF
  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Japanese Economy Monthly Forecast (September 2023)

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Monthly Report(JP)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani

    ABSTRACT

    Forecast updates

    ▶ Our forecast for Japan’s real GDP growth in 2023 Q3 is an annualized +0.0%

    ▶ We forecast a GDP deflator of +0.9% QoQ in 2023 Q3.

    Download the full report for a detailed analysis.

    PDF
  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Kansai Economic Insight Monthly Vol. 125 (September 2023)

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Monthly Report(Kansai)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani

    ABSTRACT

    Economy improving, but signs of a standstill in the future:                           

    Stagnant exports and sluggish production growth pose downside risks

    Download the full report for a detailed analysis.

    PDF
  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Japanese Economy Monthly Forecast (August 2023)

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Monthly Report(JP)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani

    ABSTRACT

    Forecast updates

    ▶ Our forecast for Japan’s real GDP growth in 2023 Q3 is an annualized +1.6%

    ▶ We forecast a GDP deflator of +0.7% QoQ in 2023 Q3.

    Download the full report for a detailed analysis.

    PDF
  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Kansai Economic Insight Quarterly No.65

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Quarterly Report(Kansai)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani

    ABSTRACT

    Kansai’s economy keeps improving, but has yet to reach full recovery.

    Economic trends in the U.S., Europe, and China will be key for the outlook.

    Download the full report for a detailed analysis.

    PDF
  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Japanese Economy: Analysis and Forecasts, No.144

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Quarterly Report(JP)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani

    ABSTRACT

    Real GDP to exceed its pre-pandemic peak driven by decline in imports and increased spending on services
    – Real GDP growth forecast: +1.9% in FY 2023, +1.1% in FY 2024 –

    Download the full report for a detailed analysis.

    PDF
  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Kansai Economic Insight Monthly Vol. 124 (August 2023)

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Monthly Report(Kansai)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani

    ABSTRACT

    Economy improving, but signs of a standstill in the future:

    Inbound tourism is recovering, but export slowdown poses downside risks

    Download the full report for a detailed analysis.

    PDF
  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Turning Kansai into an Advanced Sustainable Tourism Region

    Research Projects

    Research Project » 2023FiscalYear » Japan and Kansai economy

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa

    ABSTRACT

    Research leader:

    Yoshihisa Inada(Director of Research & Director of the Center for Quantitative Economic Analysis, Asia Pacific Institute of Research/Professor Emeritus, Konan University)

     

    Research outline:

    Demand by inbound tourism in Kansai is recovering rapidly after the Covid-19 pandemic, and is expected to grow further before Expo 2025. In view of this, this project aims to contribute to the formulation of future tourism strategies by local governments, DMOs, and other actors, by analyzing current issues facing the tourism industry and exploring potential solutions. Our focus is quantitative analysis, and the creation of an index which can quantify and measure the brand power of tourism resources.

  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Toward the Sustainable Development of the Kansai Economy: The Osaka-Kansai Expo

    Research Projects

    Research Project » 2023FiscalYear » Japan and Kansai economy

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa

    ABSTRACT

    Research leader:

    Yoshihisa Inada (Director of Research & Director of the Center for Quantitative Economic Analysis, Asia Pacific Institute of Research/Professor Emeritus, Konan University)

     

    Research outline:

    The aim of this project is to investigate ways to attract investment and people to the Kansai region, by making reference to cities that have achieved economic growth. Furthermore, it aims to analyze how the Web society, including education and human resource development, has to change in order for elementary and junior high school students who will experience the Osaka-Kansai Expo in 2025 (the Expo 2025 generation) to become active players in the world by 2050.