Japanese Economy: Analysis and Forecasts, No.129
Finding the balance between ensuring economic recovery and containing the second wave of Covid-19: toward a trial-and-error solution
▶ Japan’s Q2 real GDP contracted an annualized -27.8% QoQ. The determinants of GDP decline in Q2 were different from Q1. Download the full report for details.
▶ We have updated our forecast for real GDP growth to -5.9% in FY 2020, and +3.3% in FY 2021. Although ｔhe current economic cycle seems to have reached a trough in May, economic recovery is likely to be slow.
▶ We forecast a core CPI inflation of -0.3% in FY 2020, and +0.4% in FY 2021. Although the decline in energy prices has decelerated, the government’s free childcare program and the partial to complete elimination of tertiary education fees will both put downward pressure on inflation.
著者
Director, Center for Quantitative Economic Analysis INADA, Yoshihisa
Professor emeritus, Konan University
Macroeconomics, Applied Econometrics, Economic Forecasting
KARAVASILEV, Yani
Researcher
foreign direct investment, international recruitment, corporate agenda setting
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