Japanese Economy: Analysis and Forecasts, No.129
Abstract
Finding the balance between ensuring economic recovery and containing the second wave of Covid-19: toward a trial-and-error solution
▶ Japan’s Q2 real GDP contracted an annualized -27.8% QoQ. The determinants of GDP decline in Q2 were different from Q1. Download the full report for details.
▶ We have updated our forecast for real GDP growth to -5.9% in FY 2020, and +3.3% in FY 2021. Although the current economic cycle seems to have reached a trough in May, economic recovery is likely to be slow.
▶ We forecast a core CPI inflation of -0.3% in FY 2020, and +0.4% in FY 2021. Although the decline in energy prices has decelerated, the government’s free childcare program and the partial to complete elimination of tertiary education fees will both put downward pressure on inflation.
著者
INADA, Yoshihisa
Director of Research & Derector of Center for Quantitative Economic Analysis(CQEA), Asia Pacific Institute of Research and Professor emeritus, Konan University
Macroeconomics, Applied Econometrics, Economic Forecasting
KARAVASILEV, Yani
Associate Professor, Kwansei Gakuin University and Research Fellow, Asia Pacific Institute of Research
Economic Development, Foreign Direct Investment, International HRM, the Asian and Japanese Economies