Research

Japanese Economy: Analysis and Forecasts, No.129

Abstract

Finding the balance between ensuring economic recovery and containing the second wave of Covid-19: toward a trial-and-error solution

▶ Japan’s Q2 real GDP contracted an annualized -27.8% QoQ. The determinants of GDP decline in Q2 were different from Q1. Download the full report for details.

▶ We have updated our forecast for real GDP growth to -5.9% in FY 2020, and +3.3% in FY 2021. Although the current economic cycle seems to have reached a trough in May, economic recovery is likely to be slow.

▶ We forecast a core CPI inflation of -0.3% in FY 2020, and +0.4% in FY 2021. Although the decline in energy prices has decelerated, the government’s free childcare program and the partial to complete elimination of tertiary education fees will both put downward pressure on inflation.

 

関連論文

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    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Monthly Report(JP)

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    INADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani

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    Forecast updates

    ▶ Our forecast for Japan’s real GDP growth in 2024 Q1 is an annualized +0.2%

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    Download the full report for a detailed analysis.

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    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Monthly Report(Kansai)

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    Economic conditions heading downward, signs of future deterioration

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    Download the full report for a detailed analysis.

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    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

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    Revised Economic Forecast for Kansai’s GRP reflecting the second advance estimate of Q4 2023 GDP:

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    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Quarterly Report(JP)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani

    ABSTRACT

    Revised growth forecast reflecting the second advance estimate for Q4 GDP

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    Download the full report for a detailed analysis.

    PDF
  • KARAVASILEV, Yani

    Japanese Economy Monthly Forecast (January 2024)

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Monthly Report(JP)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    KARAVASILEV, Yani / INADA, Yoshihisa

    ABSTRACT

    Forecast updates

    ▶ Our forecast for Japan’s real GDP growth in 2023 Q4 is an annualized +3.2%

    ▶ we forecast a headline inflation (GDP deflator) of +0.2% QoQ in 2023 Q4.

    Download the full report for a detailed analysis.

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  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Kansai Economic Insight Monthly Vol. 129 (January 2024)

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Monthly Report(Kansai)

     / DATE : 

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    INADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani

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    Natural disasters and declining production pose downside risks

    Download the full report for a detailed analysis.

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    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Monthly Report(JP)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani

    ABSTRACT

    Forecast updates

    ▶ Our forecast for Japan’s real GDP growth in 2023 Q4 is an annualized +0.7%

    ▶ we forecast a headline inflation (GDP deflator) of +0.0% QoQ in 2023 Q4.

    Download the full report for a detailed analysis.

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    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Monthly Report(Kansai)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani

    ABSTRACT

    Economic conditions heading downward, signs of future deterioration

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    Download the full report for a detailed analysis.

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    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Quarterly Report(Kansai)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani

    ABSTRACT

    Revised Economic Forecast for Kansai’s GRP reflecting the second advance estimate of Q3 2023 GDP:

    +1.3% in FY 2023, +1.6% in FY 2024, +1.4% in FY 2025

    Download the full report for a detailed analysis.

     

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    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Quarterly Report(JP)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani

    ABSTRACT

    Revised growth forecast reflecting the second advance estimate for Q3 GDP

    – Real GDP growth forecast: +1.7% in FY 2023, +1.4% in FY 2024, +1.1% in FY 2025 –

    Download the full report for a detailed analysis.

    PDF