Research

Japanese Economy: Analysis and Forecasts, No.130

Abstract

Outlook improves thanks to a rebound in private consumption and exports but Japan’s economic recovery lags behind others

▶ Japan’s Q3 real GDP contracted an annualized +21.4% QoQ.

▶ We have updated our forecast for real GDP growth to -5.4% in FY 2020, and +3.8% in FY 2021.

▶ We forecast a core CPI inflation of -0.4% in FY 2020, and +0.5% in FY 2021.Although the decline in energy prices has decelerated, the consumption tax hike as well as the government’s free childcare program and the partial elimination of tertiary education fees will both put downward pressure on CPI inflation.

Download the full report for details.

関連論文

  • KARAVASILEV, Yani

    Japanese Economy Monthly Forecast (January 2024)

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Monthly Report(JP)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    KARAVASILEV, Yani / INADA, Yoshihisa

    ABSTRACT

    Forecast updates

    ▶ Our forecast for Japan’s real GDP growth in 2023 Q4 is an annualized +3.2%

    ▶ we forecast a headline inflation (GDP deflator) of +0.2% QoQ in 2023 Q4.

    Download the full report for a detailed analysis.

    PDF
  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Kansai Economic Insight Monthly Vol. 129 (January 2024)

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Monthly Report(Kansai)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani

    ABSTRACT

    Economic conditions heading downward, signs of future deterioration

    Natural disasters and declining production pose downside risks

    Download the full report for a detailed analysis.

    PDF
  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Japanese Economy Monthly Forecast (December 2023)

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Monthly Report(JP)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani

    ABSTRACT

    Forecast updates

    ▶ Our forecast for Japan’s real GDP growth in 2023 Q4 is an annualized +0.7%

    ▶ we forecast a headline inflation (GDP deflator) of +0.0% QoQ in 2023 Q4.

    Download the full report for a detailed analysis.

    PDF
  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Kansai Economic Insight Monthly Vol. 128 (December 2023)

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Monthly Report(Kansai)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani

    ABSTRACT

    Economic conditions heading downward, signs of future deterioration

    Slowdown in overseas economies and stagnant exports pose downside risks

    Download the full report for a detailed analysis.

    PDF
  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Kansai Economic Insight Quarterly No.67

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Quarterly Report(Kansai)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani

    ABSTRACT

    Revised Economic Forecast for Kansai’s GRP reflecting the second advance estimate of Q3 2023 GDP:

    +1.3% in FY 2023, +1.6% in FY 2024, +1.4% in FY 2025

    Download the full report for a detailed analysis.

     

    PDF
  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Japanese Economy: Analysis and Forecasts, No.146

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Quarterly Report(JP)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani

    ABSTRACT

    Revised growth forecast reflecting the second advance estimate for Q3 GDP

    – Real GDP growth forecast: +1.7% in FY 2023, +1.4% in FY 2024, +1.1% in FY 2025 –

    Download the full report for a detailed analysis.

    PDF
  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Japanese Economy Monthly Forecast (November 2023)

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Monthly Report(JP)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani

    ABSTRACT

    Forecast updates

    ▶ Our forecast for Japan’s real GDP growth in 2023 Q4 is an annualized -0.3%

    ▶ We forecast a GDP deflator of -0.3% QoQ in 2023 Q4.

    Download the full report for a detailed analysis.

    PDF
  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Kansai Economic Insight Monthly Vol. 127 (November 2023)

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Monthly Report(Kansai)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani

    ABSTRACT

    Economic conditions heading downward, signs of future deterioration

    Prolonged high consumer prices and stagnant trade with China pose downside risks

    Download the full report for a detailed analysis.

    PDF
  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Kansai Economic Insight Quarterly No.66

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Quarterly Report(Kansai)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani

    ABSTRACT

    Gradual recovery in Kansai continues, but the economy is entering a new phase.

    The “post-Covid” phase is over, and so is post-pandemic economic optimism.

    Download the full report for a detailed analysis.

    PDF
  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Japanese Economy: Analysis and Forecasts, No.145

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Quarterly Report(JP)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani

    ABSTRACT

    Persistently high inflation and weak private demand

    – Real GDP growth forecast: +1.5% in FY 2023, +1.2% in FY 2024, +1.0% in FY 2025 –

    Download the full report for a detailed analysis.

    PDF