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List of papers in 2020 [ 3/3 ]

  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Japanese Economy Monthly Forecast (March 2020)

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Monthly Report(JP)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani


    Data updates

    ▶ Although production increased for the third consecutive month in February, its recovery from the October-November slump has been sluggish.
    ▶ Spending on goods (40% of total private final consumption expenditure) increased in February. However, statistics on spending on services, which have more weight and might have been affected substantially by Covid-19, have not been released yet, making it hard to draw conclusions on private consumption trends.
    ▶ Private housing, private capital investment and changes in private inventories were all bearish in 2020 Q1.
    ▶ February imports were hit particularly hard by Covid-19. That caused an abrupt expansion in net exports, which propped up GDP growth. However, as the global economy entered a synchronized slowdown in March, we expect that exports will decline, which will worsen the trade balance.

    2020 Q1 Forecasts
    ▶ Our forecast for 2020 Q1 real GDP growth is an annualized -0.2% QoQ.
    ▶ However, real total demand growth (i.e. domestic demand plus imports) is an annualized -4.8%.
    ▶ We forecast an overall GDP deflator of -0.1% QoQ in 2020 Q1.