Forecast updates

▶ Our forecast for Japan’s real GDP growth in 2024 Q1 is an annualized +0.2%

▶ we forecast a headline inflation (GDP deflator) of -0.6% QoQ in 2024 Q1.

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Economic conditions heading downward, signs of future deterioration

Declining automobile production and the slowdown of China’s economy pose downside risks

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Revised Economic Forecast for Kansai’s GRP reflecting the second advance estimate of Q4 2023 GDP:

+1.4% in FY 2023, +1.4% in FY 2024, +1.5% in FY 2025

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Revised growth forecast reflecting the second advance estimate for Q4 GDP

– Real GDP growth forecast: +1.3% in FY 2023, +0.8% in FY 2024, +1.1% in FY 2025 –

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Forecast updates

▶ Our forecast for Japan’s real GDP growth in 2023 Q4 is an annualized +3.2%

▶ we forecast a headline inflation (GDP deflator) of +0.2% QoQ in 2023 Q4.

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Economic conditions heading downward, signs of future deterioration

Natural disasters and declining production pose downside risks

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Forecast updates

▶ Our forecast for Japan’s real GDP growth in 2023 Q4 is an annualized +0.7%

▶ we forecast a headline inflation (GDP deflator) of +0.0% QoQ in 2023 Q4.

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Economic conditions heading downward, signs of future deterioration

Slowdown in overseas economies and stagnant exports pose downside risks

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Revised Economic Forecast for Kansai’s GRP reflecting the second advance estimate of Q3 2023 GDP:

+1.3% in FY 2023, +1.6% in FY 2024, +1.4% in FY 2025

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Revised growth forecast reflecting the second advance estimate for Q3 GDP

– Real GDP growth forecast: +1.7% in FY 2023, +1.4% in FY 2024, +1.1% in FY 2025 –

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Forecast updates

▶ Our forecast for Japan’s real GDP growth in 2023 Q4 is an annualized -0.3%

▶ We forecast a GDP deflator of -0.3% QoQ in 2023 Q4.

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Economic conditions heading downward, signs of future deterioration

Prolonged high consumer prices and stagnant trade with China pose downside risks

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Gradual recovery in Kansai continues, but the economy is entering a new phase.

The “post-Covid” phase is over, and so is post-pandemic economic optimism.

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Persistently high inflation and weak private demand

– Real GDP growth forecast: +1.5% in FY 2023, +1.2% in FY 2024, +1.0% in FY 2025 –

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Forecast updates

▶ Our forecast for Japan’s real GDP growth in 2023 Q3 is an annualized -1.8%

▶ We forecast a GDP deflator of +0.7% QoQ in 2023 Q3.

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Signs of change in current and future economic conditions:

Inflation and stagnant exports pose downside risks

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Forecast updates

▶ Our forecast for Japan’s real GDP growth in 2023 Q3 is an annualized +0.0%

▶ We forecast a GDP deflator of +0.9% QoQ in 2023 Q3.

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Economy improving, but signs of a standstill in the future:               　　　         

Stagnant exports and sluggish production growth pose downside risks

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Forecast updates

▶ Our forecast for Japan’s real GDP growth in 2023 Q3 is an annualized +1.6%

▶ We forecast a GDP deflator of +0.7% QoQ in 2023 Q3.

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Kansai’s economy keeps improving, but has yet to reach full recovery.

Economic trends in the U.S., Europe, and China will be key for the outlook.

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