Research

Asia Pacific Economic Forecast : Monthly Report(JP)

APIR provides weekly and monthly assessments of current economic conditions and future outlooks for the United States and Japan. We also provide detailed quarterly predictions for the economies of Kansai and Japan.

  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Japanese Economy Monthly Forecast (September 2021)

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Monthly Report(JP)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani

    ABSTRACT

    Forecast updates

    ▶ Our forecast for Japan’s real GDP growth in 2021 Q3 is an annualized +0.9%.

    ▶ We forecast a GDP deflator of +0.0% QoQ in 2021 Q3.

    Download the full report for a detailed analysis.

    PDF
  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Japanese Economy Monthly Forecast (August 2021)

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Monthly Report(JP)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani

    ABSTRACT

    Forecast updates

    ▶ Our forecast for Japan’s real GDP growth in 2021 Q3 is an annualized +4.0%.

    ▶ We forecast a GDP deflator of +0.0% QoQ in 2021 Q3.

    Download the full report for a detailed analysis.

    PDF
  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Japanese Economy Monthly Forecast (July 2021)

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Monthly Report(JP)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani

    ABSTRACT

    Forecast updates

    ▶ Our forecast for Japan’s real GDP growth in 2021 Q2 is an annualized +0.4%.

    ▶ We forecast a GDP deflator of -0.6% QoQ in 2021 Q2.

    Download the full report for a detailed analysis.

    PDF
  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Japanese Economy Monthly Forecast (June 2021)

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Monthly Report(JP)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani

    ABSTRACT

    Forecast updates

    ▶ Our forecast for Japan’s real GDP growth in 2021 Q2 is an annualized -1.1%.

    ▶ We forecast a GDP deflator of -0.6% QoQ in 2021 Q2.

    Download the full report for a detailed analysis.

    PDF
  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Japanese Economy Monthly Forecast (May 2021)

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Monthly Report(JP)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani

    ABSTRACT

    Forecast updates

    ▶ Our forecast for Japan’s real GDP growth in 2021 Q2 is an annualized +0.7%.

    ▶ We forecast a GDP deflator of -0.9% QoQ in 2021 Q2.

    Download the full report for a detailed analysis.

    PDF
  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Japanese Economy Monthly Forecast (April 2021)

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Monthly Report(JP)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani

    ABSTRACT

    Forecast updates

    ▶ Our forecast for Japan’s real GDP growth in 2021 Q1 is an annualized -4.7%.

    ▶ We forecast a GDP deflator of -0.3% QoQ in 2021 Q1.

    Download the full report for a detailed analysis.

    PDF
  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Japanese Economy Monthly Forecast (March 2021)

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Monthly Report(JP)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani

    ABSTRACT

    Forecast updates

    ▶ Our forecast for Japan’s real GDP growth in 2021 Q1 is an annualized -7.5%.

    ▶ We forecast a GDP deflator of -0.3% QoQ in 2021 Q1.

    Download the full report for a detailed analysis.

    PDF
  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Japanese Economy Monthly Forecast (February 2021)

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Monthly Report(JP)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani

    ABSTRACT

    Forecast updates

    ▶ Our forecast for Japan’s real GDP growth in 2021 Q1 is an annualized -1.8% QoQ.

    ▶ We forecast a GDP deflator of -0.1% QoQ in 2021 Q1.

    Download the full report for a detailed analysis.

    PDF
  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Japanese Economy Monthly Forecast (January 2021)

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Monthly Report(JP)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani

    ABSTRACT

    Forecast updates

    ▶ Our forecast for Japan’s real GDP growth in 2020 Q4 is an annualized +12.8% QoQ.

    ▶ We forecast a GDP deflator of -0.4% QoQ in 2020 Q4.

    Download the full report for a detailed analysis.

    PDF
  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Japanese Economy Monthly Forecast (December 2020)

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Monthly Report(JP)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani

    ABSTRACT

    Forecast updates

    ▶ Our forecast for Japan’s real GDP growth in 2020 Q4 is an annualized +11.7% QoQ.

    ▶ We forecast a GDP deflator of -0.4% QoQ in 2020 Q4.

    Download the full report for a detailed analysis.

    PDF
  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Japanese Economy Monthly Forecast (November 2020)

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Monthly Report(JP)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani

    ABSTRACT

    Forecast updates

    ▶ Our forecast for Japan’s real GDP growth in 2020 Q4 is an annualized +7.1% QoQ.

    ▶ We forecast a GDP deflator of -0.2% QoQ in 2020 Q4.

    Download the full report for a detailed analysis.

    PDF
  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Japanese Economy Monthly Forecast (October 2020)

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Monthly Report(JP)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani

    ABSTRACT

    Forecasts updates
    ▶ Our latest forecast for Japan’s real GDP growth in 2020 Q3 is an annualized +18.9% QoQ.

    ▶ We forecast a GDP deflator of -0.2% QoQ in 2020 Q3.

    Download the full report for a detailed analysis.

    PDF
  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Japanese Economy Monthly Forecast (September 2020)

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Monthly Report(JP)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani

    ABSTRACT

    Forecasts updates
    ▶ Our latest forecast for Japan’s real GDP growth in 2020 Q3 is an annualized +12.4% QoQ.

    ▶ We forecast a PCE deflator of +0.3% QoQ in 2020 Q3. In contrast, our GDP deflator forecast is -0.1% QoQ, reflecting the deteriorating terms of trade.

    Download the full report for a detailed analysis.

    PDF
  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Japanese Economy Monthly Forecast (August 2020)

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Monthly Report(JP)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani

    ABSTRACT

    Forecasts updates
    ▶ Our latest forecast for Japan’s real GDP growth in 2020 Q3 is an annualized +13.6% QoQ.

    ▶ Our latest inflation forecast (GDP deflator) for 2020 Q3 is +0.1% QoQ.

    Download the full report for a detailed analysis.

    PDF
  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Japanese Economy Monthly Forecast (July 2020)

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Monthly Report(JP)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani

    ABSTRACT

    Forecasts updates
    ▶ Our latest forecast for Japan’s real GDP growth in 2020 Q2 is an annualized -25.4% QoQ.
    ▶ We forecast an overall Q2 GDP deflator of +1.1% QoQ.

    Download the full report for a detailed analysis.

    PDF
  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Japanese Economy Monthly Forecast (June 2020)

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Monthly Report(JP)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani

    ABSTRACT

    Forecasts updates
    ▶ Our latest expenditure-side forecast for Japan’s real GDP growth in 2020 Q2 is an annualized -25.0% QoQ. Our production-side forecast is an annualized -19.3% QoQ. The average of the two is an annualized -22.1%.
    ▶ Our forecasts for the private final consumption expenditure deflator and the domestic demand deflator in 2020 Q1 are respectively -0.2% QoQ and -0.3% QoQ. As the terms of trade have improved substantially, we forecast an overall Q2 GDP deflator of +1.2% QoQ.

    Download the full report for a detailed analysis.

    PDF
  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Japanese Economy Monthly Forecast (May 2020)

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Monthly Report(JP)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani

    ABSTRACT

    Forecasts updates
    ▶ Our latest expenditure-side forecast for Japan’s real GDP growth in 2020 Q2 is an annualized -14.6% QoQ. Our production-side forecast is an annualized -7.4% QoQ. The average of the two is an annualized -11.0%.
    ▶ Our forecasts for the private final consumption expenditure deflator and the domestic demand deflator in 2020 Q1 are both -0.3% QoQ. However, as the terms of trade are improving, we forecast an overall GDP deflator of +0.7% QoQ.

    Download the full report for a detailed analysis.

    PDF
  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Japanese Economy Monthly Forecast (April 2020)

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Monthly Report(JP)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani

    ABSTRACT

    Forecasts updates
    ▶ Our latest expenditure-side forecast for Japan’s real GDP growth in 2020 Q1is an annualized -2.7%. Our production-side forecast is an annualized +0.3%. The average of the two forecasts is an annualized -1.2%.
    ▶ Our forecasts for the private final consumption expenditure deflator and the domestic demand deflator in 2020 Q1 are both +0.1% QoQ. As the terms of trade are deteriorating, we forecast an overall GDP deflator of 0.0% QoQ.

    Download the full report for a detailed analysis.

    PDF
  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Japanese Economy Monthly Forecast (March 2020)

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Monthly Report(JP)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani

    ABSTRACT

    Data updates

    ▶ Although production increased for the third consecutive month in February, its recovery from the October-November slump has been sluggish.
    ▶ Spending on goods (40% of total private final consumption expenditure) increased in February. However, statistics on spending on services, which have more weight and might have been affected substantially by Covid-19, have not been released yet, making it hard to draw conclusions on private consumption trends.
    ▶ Private housing, private capital investment and changes in private inventories were all bearish in 2020 Q1.
    ▶ February imports were hit particularly hard by Covid-19. That caused an abrupt expansion in net exports, which propped up GDP growth. However, as the global economy entered a synchronized slowdown in March, we expect that exports will decline, which will worsen the trade balance.

    2020 Q1 Forecasts
    ▶ Our forecast for 2020 Q1 real GDP growth is an annualized -0.2% QoQ.
    ▶ However, real total demand growth (i.e. domestic demand plus imports) is an annualized -4.8%.
    ▶ We forecast an overall GDP deflator of -0.1% QoQ in 2020 Q1.

    PDF
  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Japanese Economy Monthly Forecast (February 2020)

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Monthly Report(JP)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani

    ABSTRACT

    Data updates
    ▶ Most major economic indicators deteriorated in January, including residential construction, capital goods shipments, private capital investment, exports, imports, and large retailers’ sales. Inventories piled up as industrial production increased slightly. The recovery in production, however, has been slow since the consumption tax hike last October.

    2020 Q1 Forecasts
    ▶ Our forecast for 2020 Q1 real GDP growth is an annualized -0.3% QoQ.
    ▶ We forecast an overall GDP deflator of -0.0% QoQ in 2020 Q1.

    PDF