Research

Asia Pacific Economic Forecast : Monthly Report(Kansai)

APIR provides weekly and monthly assessments of current economic conditions and future outlooks for the United States and Japan. We also provide detailed quarterly predictions for the economies of Kansai and Japan.

  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Kansai Economic Insight Monthly Vol.76 (August 2019)

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Monthly Report(Kansai)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani

    ABSTRACT

    Summary: Further economic deterioration in sight

    ・ Production in June shrank MoM for the first time in three months.
    ・ Although Kansai logged a trade surplus in July, the total amount of trade declined YoY for the eighth consecutive month. The impact of the trade tensions with Korea are limited to individual firms rather than industries.
    ・ The Economy Watchers’ Diffusion Index (DI) in July deteriorated MoM for the third consecutive month.
    ・ Nominal wages in May remained unchanged, but real wages decreased YoY for the third consecutive month.
    ・ Sales by large retailers in June exceeded last year’s level for the second month in a row.
    ・ The number of new housing starts in June contracted by -3.6% YoY, decreasing for the third consecutive month.
    ・ Both the effective job offers-to-applicants ratio and the unemployment declined slightly in June.
    ・ June was the 16th month of uninterrupted YoY growth in construction works.
    ・ The number of international arrivals at Kansai International Airport in June grew YoY for the tenth consecutive month.
    ・ China’s Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) in July improved slightly, but it remained below 50 for the third month in a row.

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  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Kansai Economic Insight Monthly Vol.75 (July 2019)

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Monthly Report(Kansai)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani

    ABSTRACT

    Summary: Further economic deterioration in sight

    ・ Production in May expanded MoM for the second month in a row.
    ・ Although Kansai registered a trade surplus for the first time in two months in June, both exports and imports shrank YoY.
    ・ The Economy Watchers’ Diffusion Index (DI)  in June deteriorated MoM for the second consecutive month.
    ・ Both nominal and real wages in April decreased YoY for the second consecutive month.
    ・ Sales by large retailers in May expanded YoY for the first time in two months.
    ・ The number of new housing starts in May plummeted sharply (-27.5% YoY), decreasing for the second consecutive month.
    ・ Although the effective job offers-to-applicants ratio in May declined slightly, the absolute numbers of both job offers and applicants increased. The unemployment rate remained unchanged.
    ・ Construction works in May expanded YoY for the 15th month in a row. However, public works contracts declined.
    ・ The number of international arrivals at Kansai International Airport in June grew YoY for the ninth month in a row.
    ・ China’s Q2 real GDP expanded +6.2% YoY, the slowest growth rate since 1992.

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  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Kansai Economic Insight Monthly Vol.74 (June 2019)

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Monthly Report(Kansai)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani

    ABSTRACT

    Summary: Current economic deterioration expected to persist

    • Production in April expanded MoM for the first time in six months, but output was -0.5% lower than the Q1 average.
    • Kansai registered a trade deficit in May for the first time in four months. Both exports and imports shrank YoY.
    • The Economy Watchers’ Diffusion Index (DI) in May deteriorated MoM for the first time in two months.
    • Both nominal and real wages in March decreased YoY for the first time in three months.
    • Sales by large retailers in April shrank YoY for the first time in two months.
    • The number of new housing starts in April decreased YoY for the first time in two months.
    • The job offers-to-applicants ratio in April increased slightly. The unemployment rate remained unchanged.
    • Construction works in April expanded for the 14th consecutive month.
    • The number of international arrivals at Kansai International Airport in May grew YoY for the eighth month in a row.
    • China’s Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) in May deteriorated for the second consecutive month.
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  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Kansai Economic Insight Monthly Vol.73 (May 2019)

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Monthly Report(Kansai)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani

    ABSTRACT

    Summary: Economy remains sluggish with signs of potential deterioration

    • Production in March shrank MoM for the first time in two months.
    • The April trade balance remained positive for the third month in a row, but it shrank YoY.
    • The Economy Watchers’ DI in March improved MoM for the first time in two months.
    • Real wages in February increased YoY for the second month in a row.
    • Sales by large retailers in March expanded for the first time in five months.
    • New housing starts in March increased YoY for the first time in two months.
    • The effective job offers-to-applicants ratio in March remained unchanged.
    • March was the 13th month of uninterrupted YoY growth in construction.
    • International arrivals at KIX in April grew YoY for the seventh month in a row.
    • China’s PMI in April deteriorated for the first time in two months.
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  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Kansai Economic Insight Monthly Vol.72 (April 2019)

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Monthly Report(Kansai)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani

    PDF
  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Kansai Economic Insight Monthly Vol.71 (February/March 2019)

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Monthly Report(Kansai)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani

    PDF
  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Kansai Economic Insight Monthly Vol.69 (December/January 2019)

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Monthly Report(Kansai)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / TOYOHARA, Norihiko / KINOSHITA, Yusuke / IKUTA, Yusuke / CAO, Thi Khanh Nguyet / MA, Teng

    PDF
  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Kansai Economic Insight Monthly Vol.68 (November/December 2018)

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Monthly Report(Kansai)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / TOYOHARA, Norihiko / KINOSHITA, Yusuke / IKUTA, Yusuke / CAO, Thi Khanh Nguyet / MA, Teng

    PDF
  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Kansai Economic Insight Monthly Vol.67 (October/November 2018)

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Monthly Report(Kansai)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / TOYOHARA, Norihiko / KINOSHITA, Yusuke / IKUTA, Yusuke / CAO, Thi Khanh Nguyet / MA, Teng

    PDF
  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Kansai Economic Insight Monthly Vol.66 (September/October 2018)

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Monthly Report(Kansai)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / TOYOHARA, Norihiko / KINOSHITA, Yusuke / IKUTA, Yusuke / MA, Teng / CAO, Thi Khanh Nguyet

    PDF
  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Kansai Economic Insight Monthly Vol.65 (August/September 2018)

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Monthly Report(Kansai)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / TOYOHARA, Norihiko / KINOSHITA, Yusuke / IKUTA, Yusuke / CAO, Thi Khanh Nguyet / MA, Teng

    PDF
  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Kansai Economic Insight Monthly Vol.64 (July/August 2018)

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Monthly Report(Kansai)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / TOYOHARA, Norihiko / KINOSHITA, Yusuke / IKUTA, Yusuke / CAO, Thi Khanh Nguyet / MA, Teng

    PDF
  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Kansai Economic Insight Monthly Vol.63 (June/July 2018)

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Monthly Report(Kansai)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / TOYOHARA, Norihiko / KINOSHITA, Yusuke / MA, Teng / IKUTA, Yusuke / CAO, Thi Khanh Nguyet

    PDF
  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Kansai Economic Insight Monthly Vol.62 (May/June 2018)

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Monthly Report(Kansai)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / TOYOHARA, Norihiko / KINOSHITA, Yusuke / IKUTA, Yusuke / CAO, Thi Khanh Nguyet / MA, Teng

    PDF
  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Kansai Economic Insight Monthly Vol.61 (April/May 2018)

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Monthly Report(Kansai)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / TOYOHARA, Norihiko / KINOSHITA, Yusuke / IKUTA, Yusuke / CAO, Thi Khanh Nguyet / MA, Teng

    PDF
  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Kansai Economic Insight Monthly Vol.60 (April 2018)

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Monthly Report(Kansai)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / TOYOHARA, Norihiko / KINOSHITA, Yusuke / IKUTA, Yusuke / CAO, Thi Khanh Nguyet / MA, Teng

    PDF