Research

Asia Pacific Economic Forecast : Quarterly Report(JP)

APIR provides weekly and monthly assessments of current economic conditions and future outlooks for the United States and Japan. We also provide detailed quarterly predictions for the economies of Kansai and Japan.

  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Japanese Economy: Analysis and Forecasts, No.146

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Quarterly Report(JP)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani

    ABSTRACT

    Revised growth forecast reflecting the second advance estimate for Q3 GDP

    – Real GDP growth forecast: +1.7% in FY 2023, +1.4% in FY 2024, +1.1% in FY 2025 –

    Download the full report for a detailed analysis.

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  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Japanese Economy: Analysis and Forecasts, No.145

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Quarterly Report(JP)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani

    ABSTRACT

    Persistently high inflation and weak private demand

    – Real GDP growth forecast: +1.5% in FY 2023, +1.2% in FY 2024, +1.0% in FY 2025 –

    Download the full report for a detailed analysis.

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  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Japanese Economy: Analysis and Forecasts, No.144

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Quarterly Report(JP)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani

    ABSTRACT

    Real GDP to exceed its pre-pandemic peak driven by decline in imports and increased spending on services
    – Real GDP growth forecast: +1.9% in FY 2023, +1.1% in FY 2024 –

    Download the full report for a detailed analysis.

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  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Japanese Economy: Analysis and Forecasts, No.143

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Quarterly Report(JP)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani

    ABSTRACT
    Economic recovery driven by service consumption expenditures,

    but held back by global economic slowdown

    – Real GDP growth forecast: +0.9% in FY 2023, +1.4% in FY 2024 –

    Download the full report for a detailed analysis.

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  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Japanese Economy: Analysis and Forecasts, No.142

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Quarterly Report(JP)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani

    ABSTRACT

    Soaring inflation and global economic slowdown take a toll on the Japanese economy

    – Real GDP growth forecast: +1.3% in FY 2022, +0.9% in FY 2023, +1.5% in FY 2024 –

    Download the full report for a detailed analysis.

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  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Japanese Economy: Analysis and Forecasts, No.141

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Quarterly Report(JP)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani

    ABSTRACT

    Revised Outlook for Japan’s Economy Reflecting the Second Advance 2022 Q3 GDP Estimate

    – Real GDP growth forecast: +1.5% in FY 2022, +1.1% in FY 2023, +1.4% in FY 2024 –

    Download the full report for a detailed analysis.

    PDF
  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Japanese Economy: Analysis and Forecasts, No.140

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Quarterly Report(JP)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani

    ABSTRACT

    A downward revision in GDP growth, reflecting weak export prospects

    – Real GDP growth forecast: +1.7% in FY 2022, +1.2% in FY 2023, +1.4% in FY 2024 –

    Download the full report for a detailed analysis.

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  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Japanese Economy: Analysis and Forecasts, No.139

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Quarterly Report(JP)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani

    ABSTRACT

    Growth rate revised downward to reflect weak export prospects

    – Real GDP growth forecast: +1.5% in FY2022, +1.5% in FY2023 –

    Download the full report for a detailed analysis.

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  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Japanese Economy: Analysis and Forecasts, No.138

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Quarterly Report(JP)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani

    ABSTRACT

    China’s zero-covid policy, high oil prices, and the weak yen pose risks to Japan’s economic recovery

    – Real GDP growth forecast: +1.9% in FY2022, +1.7% in FY2023 –

    Download the full report for a detailed analysis.

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  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Japanese Economy: Analysis and Forecasts, No.137

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Quarterly Report(JP)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani

    ABSTRACT

    Japan’s economic recovery will stall: new covid-19 variants, high energy prices and weak exchange rate pose risks

    Real GDP will grow +2.4% in FY 2021, +2.3% in FY 2022, +1.7% in FY 2023 –

    Download the full report for a detailed analysis.

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  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Japanese Economy: Analysis and Forecasts, No.136

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Quarterly Report(JP)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani

    ABSTRACT

    Economic forecast updated due to revisions in 2021 Q3  second advance GDP estimate

    Real GDP projected to expand +2.7% in FY 2021, +2.6% in FY 2022 and +1.7% in FY 2023 –

    Download the full report for a detailed analysis.

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  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Japanese Economy: Analysis and Forecasts, No.135

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Quarterly Report(JP)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani

    ABSTRACT

    Recovery at crossroads: supply shocks and a sixth wave of infections

    Real GDP projected at +2.8% in FY 2021, +2.6% in FY 2022 and +1.4% in FY 2023

    Download the full report for a detailed analysis.

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  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Japanese Economy: Analysis and Forecasts, No.134

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Quarterly Report(JP)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani

    ABSTRACT

    Recovery scenarios at the crossroads: economic recovery to be delayed

    Real GDP expected to grow +3.3% in FY 2021 and +2.3% in FY 2022 –

    Download the full report for a detailed analysis.

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  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Japanese Economy: Analysis and Forecasts, No.133

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Quarterly Report(JP)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani

    ABSTRACT

    Rising hopes that vaccination will be a game changer
    – Real GDP expected to grow +3.4% in FY 2021 and 2.3% in FY 2022 –

    Download the full report for a detailed analysis.

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  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Japanese Economy: Analysis and Forecasts, No.132

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Quarterly Report(JP)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani

    ABSTRACT

    Recovery from double-dip recession expected in the second half of 2021 as vaccination unfolds.
    Real GDP projections: -4.8% in FY 2020, +3.4% in FY 2021, +1.8% in FY 2022.

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  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Japanese Economy: Analysis and Forecasts, No.130

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Quarterly Report(JP)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani

    ABSTRACT

    Outlook improves thanks to a rebound in private consumption and exports but Japan’s economic recovery lags behind others

    ▶ Japan’s Q3 real GDP contracted an annualized +21.4% QoQ.

    ▶ We have updated our forecast for real GDP growth to -5.4% in FY 2020, and +3.8% in FY 2021.

    ▶ We forecast a core CPI inflation of -0.4% in FY 2020, and +0.5% in FY 2021.Although the decline in energy prices has decelerated, the consumption tax hike as well as the government’s free childcare program and the partial elimination of tertiary education fees will both put downward pressure on CPI inflation.

    Download the full report for details.

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  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Japanese Economy: Analysis and Forecasts, No.129

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Quarterly Report(JP)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani

    ABSTRACT

    Finding the balance between ensuring economic recovery and containing the second wave of Covid-19: toward a trial-and-error solution

    ▶ Japan’s Q2 real GDP contracted an annualized -27.8% QoQ. The determinants of GDP decline in Q2 were different from Q1. Download the full report for details.

    ▶ We have updated our forecast for real GDP growth to -5.9% in FY 2020, and +3.3% in FY 2021. Although the current economic cycle seems to have reached a trough in May, economic recovery is likely to be slow.

    ▶ We forecast a core CPI inflation of -0.3% in FY 2020, and +0.4% in FY 2021. Although the decline in energy prices has decelerated, the government’s free childcare program and the partial to complete elimination of tertiary education fees will both put downward pressure on inflation.

     

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  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Japanese Economy: Analysis and Forecasts, No.128

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Quarterly Report(JP)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani

    ABSTRACT

    V-shaped recovery unlikely following the Covid-19 pandemic -Social distancing measures to slow down recovery-

    ▶ Japan’s 2020 Q1 real GDP growth was an annualized -3.4% QoQ, the second consecutive quarter in negative territory.

    ▶ We expect an even steeper slump in private consumption in 2020 Q2, due to the government’s state of emergency declaration in April.

    ▶ As social distancing is expected to continue even after the state of emergency is lifted, a swift (V-shaped) recovery in production and consumption seems rather unlikely.

    ▶ We have updated our forecast for real GDP growth to -5.6% in FY 2020. After two years of negative growth in FY 2019 and FY 2020, we forecast a positive growth of +2.5% in FY 2021.

    ▶ We forecast a core CPI inflation of -0.4% in FY 2020, and +0.4% in FY 2021. This forecast reflects stagnant domestic and external demand, as well as the combined impact of the decline in gasoline prices, the government’s free childcare program, and the partial or complete elimination of tertiary education fees announced in April this year, which will all exert substantial deflationary pressure.

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  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Japanese Economy: Analysis and Forecasts, No. 124

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Quarterly Report(JP)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani

    ABSTRACT

    Highlight: Global trade has bottomed out, but recovery remains uncertain

    ▶ Japan’s Q3 real GDP growth was an annualized +0.2% QoQ, well below expectations. APIR’s latest forecast for real GDP growth is +0.7% in FY2019, +0.4% in FY2020, and +0.7% in FY2021.

    ▶ Rush demand before the consumption tax hike this time was not as pronounced as in 2014. Although private consumption remains weak, we deem an economic recession in FY2019 is unlikely.

    ▶ The China-US trade conflict is taking its toll on global trade. As the effects of protectionist policies will extend into FY2020, the Japanese economy is not expected to get back on the path to recovery until FY2021.

    ▶ Future inflation will be influenced not only by energy and non-energy prices, but also by the consumption tax hike and the elimination of child care fees. We forecast a core CPI inflation of +0.6% in FY2019, +0.4% in FY2020, and +0.5% in FY2021.

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  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Japanese Economy: Analysis and Forecasts, No. 123

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Quarterly Report(JP)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani

    ABSTRACT

    Summary: Private domestic demand might taper off amid deteriorating global trade

    ▶ Japan’s Q2 real GDP growth was an annualized +1.8% QoQ, precisely matching APIR’s final CQM forecast of +1.8%. Private and public domestic demand propped up growth, whereas net exports made a negative contribution. The China-US trade frictions remain the main risk factor to global trade, posing significant challenges to making forecasts.

    ▶ APIR’s forecast for real GDP growth is +1.0% in FY2019 and +0.5% in FY2020. The tax hike in October 2019 will inevitably cause a temporary downturn. However, we deem that an economic recession in FY2019 is unlikely due to several factors (see full report).

    ▶ In addition to energy and non-energy price fluctuations, as well as the impact of the tax hike in October, future trends in prices will be influenced by the planned elimination of child care fees. Considering all these factors, we forecast a core CPI inflation of +0.6% in FY2019 and +0.5% in FY2020.

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