Research

Asia Pacific Economic Forecast : Quarterly Report(JP)

APIR provides weekly and monthly assessments of current economic conditions and future outlooks for the United States and Japan. We also provide detailed quarterly predictions for the economies of Kansai and Japan.

  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Japanese Economy: Analysis and Forecasts, No.128

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Quarterly Report(JP)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani

    ABSTRACT

    V-shaped recovery unlikely following the Covid-19 pandemic -Social distancing measures to slow down recovery-

    ▶ Japan’s 2020 Q1 real GDP growth was an annualized -3.4% QoQ, the second consecutive quarter in negative territory.

    ▶ We expect an even steeper slump in private consumption in 2020 Q2, due to the government’s state of emergency declaration in April.

    ▶ As social distancing is expected to continue even after the state of emergency is lifted, a swift (V-shaped) recovery in production and consumption seems rather unlikely.

    ▶ We have updated our forecast for real GDP growth to -5.6% in FY 2020. After two years of negative growth in FY 2019 and FY 2020, we forecast a positive growth of +2.5% in FY 2021.

    ▶ We forecast a core CPI inflation of -0.4% in FY 2020, and +0.4% in FY 2021. This forecast reflects stagnant domestic and external demand, as well as the combined impact of the decline in gasoline prices, the government’s free childcare program, and the partial or complete elimination of tertiary education fees announced in April this year, which will all exert substantial deflationary pressure.

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  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Japanese Economy: Analysis and Forecasts, No. 124

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Quarterly Report(JP)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani

    ABSTRACT

    Highlight: Global trade has bottomed out, but recovery remains uncertain

    ▶ Japan’s Q3 real GDP growth was an annualized +0.2% QoQ, well below expectations. APIR’s latest forecast for real GDP growth is +0.7% in FY2019, +0.4% in FY2020, and +0.7% in FY2021.

    ▶ Rush demand before the consumption tax hike this time was not as pronounced as in 2014. Although private consumption remains weak, we deem an economic recession in FY2019 is unlikely.

    ▶ The China-US trade conflict is taking its toll on global trade. As the effects of protectionist policies will extend into FY2020, the Japanese economy is not expected to get back on the path to recovery until FY2021.

    ▶ Future inflation will be influenced not only by energy and non-energy prices, but also by the consumption tax hike and the elimination of child care fees. We forecast a core CPI inflation of +0.6% in FY2019, +0.4% in FY2020, and +0.5% in FY2021.

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  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Japanese Economy: Analysis and Forecasts, No. 123

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Quarterly Report(JP)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani

    ABSTRACT

    Summary: Private domestic demand might taper off amid deteriorating global trade

    ▶ Japan’s Q2 real GDP growth was an annualized +1.8% QoQ, precisely matching APIR’s final CQM forecast of +1.8%. Private and public domestic demand propped up growth, whereas net exports made a negative contribution. The China-US trade frictions remain the main risk factor to global trade, posing significant challenges to making forecasts.

    ▶ APIR’s forecast for real GDP growth is +1.0% in FY2019 and +0.5% in FY2020. The tax hike in October 2019 will inevitably cause a temporary downturn. However, we deem that an economic recession in FY2019 is unlikely due to several factors (see full report).

    ▶ In addition to energy and non-energy price fluctuations, as well as the impact of the tax hike in October, future trends in prices will be influenced by the planned elimination of child care fees. Considering all these factors, we forecast a core CPI inflation of +0.6% in FY2019 and +0.5% in FY2020.

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  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Japanese Economy Analysis and Forecasts, No. 116

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Quarterly Report(JP)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa

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