Research

Asia Pacific Economic Forecast : Quarterly Report(Kansai)

APIR provides weekly and monthly assessments of current economic conditions and future outlooks for the United States and Japan. We also provide detailed quarterly predictions for the economies of Kansai and Japan.

  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Kansai Economic Insight Quarterly No.67

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Quarterly Report(Kansai)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani

    ABSTRACT

    Revised Economic Forecast for Kansai’s GRP reflecting the second advance estimate of Q3 2023 GDP:

    +1.3% in FY 2023, +1.6% in FY 2024, +1.4% in FY 2025

    Download the full report for a detailed analysis.

     

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  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Kansai Economic Insight Quarterly No.66

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Quarterly Report(Kansai)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani

    ABSTRACT

    Gradual recovery in Kansai continues, but the economy is entering a new phase.

    The “post-Covid” phase is over, and so is post-pandemic economic optimism.

    Download the full report for a detailed analysis.

    PDF
  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Kansai Economic Insight Quarterly No.65

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Quarterly Report(Kansai)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani

    ABSTRACT

    Kansai’s economy keeps improving, but has yet to reach full recovery.

    Economic trends in the U.S., Europe, and China will be key for the outlook.

    Download the full report for a detailed analysis.

    PDF
  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Kansai Economic Insight Quarterly No.64

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Quarterly Report(Kansai)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani

    ABSTRACT
    Kansai economy heading for a virtuous circle led by recovery in consumption: 

    Upward economic trend likely to continue

    Download the full report for a detailed analysis.

    PDF
  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Kansai Economic Insight Quarterly No.63

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Quarterly Report(Kansai)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani

    ABSTRACT

    Gradual recovery driven by domestic demand expected to continue.

    Soaring prices and global economic trends remain risk factors.

    Download the full report for a detailed analysis.

    PDF
  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Kansai Economic Insight Quarterly No.62

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Quarterly Report(Kansai)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani

    ABSTRACT

    Revised Outlook for Kansai’s Economy Reflecting the Second Advance 2022 Q3 GDP Estimate

    Real GDP growth forecast: +1.5%in FY 2022, +1.2% in FY 2023, +1.5% in FY 2024

    Download the full report for a detailed analysis.

    PDF
  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Kansai Economic Insight Quarterly No.61

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Quarterly Report(Kansai)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani

    ABSTRACT

    Despite Kansai’s Continued Recovery, Caution About Economic Recession Grows
    Concerns include slowdown in overseas economies and inflation

    Download the full report for a detailed analysis.

    PDF
  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Kansai Economic Insight Quarterly No.60

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Quarterly Report(Kansai)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani

    ABSTRACT

    Kansai’s economy is picking up, but the speed of     recovery varies significantly across industries.

    Despite the weak outlook, increased investment across the entire region is    expected to bring about an economic turnaround

    Download the full report for a detailed analysis.

    PDF
  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Kansai Economic Insight Quarterly No.59

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Quarterly Report(Kansai)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani

    ABSTRACT

    Overseas factors casting a shadow on the normalization of economic activity.

    China’s zero-COVID policy will have a major impact on Kansai’s economy.

    Download the full report for a detailed analysis.

    PDF
  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Kansai Economic Insight Quarterly No.58

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Quarterly Report(Kansai)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani

    ABSTRACT

    Uncertainties dim outlook for a full-fledged recovery

    – In addition to the COVID-19 pandemic, the international situation, soaring energy prices, and other factors are exerting downward pressure on Kansai’s economy-

    Download the full report for a detailed analysis.

    PDF
  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Kansai Economic Insight Quarterly No.57

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Quarterly Report(Kansai)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani

    ABSTRACT

    Forecast for Kansai’s economy updated due to revisions in 2021 Q3 second advance GDP estimate

    – Real GRP to grow +2.8% in FY 2021, +2.8% in FY 2022 and +1.8% in FY 2023 –

    Download the full report for a detailed analysis.

    PDF
  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Kansai Economic Insight Quarterly No.56

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Quarterly Report(Kansai)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani

    ABSTRACT

    Kansai’s recovering economy in a lull due to COVID-19 countermeasures                  

    – Full recovery delayed to 2022 and beyond –

    Download the full report for a detailed analysis.

    PDF
  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Kansai Economic Insight Quarterly Vol.55

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Quarterly Report(Kansai)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani

    ABSTRACT

    Kansai’s economy on an upward trajectory, but far from full recovery

    – Spread of new COVID-19 variants meddling with recovery patterns –

    Download the full report for a detailed analysis.

    PDF
  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Kansai Economic Insight Quarterly Vol.54

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Quarterly Report(Kansai)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani

    ABSTRACT

    Kansai’s economy set on an upward trajectory, halfway through to a full recovery
    – Moving toward mass vaccination and a growing domestic demand –

    Download the full report for a detailed analysis.

    PDF
  • 稲田 義久

    Kansai Economic Insight Quarterly Vol.53

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Quarterly Report(Kansai)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    稲田 義久 / KARAVASILEV, Yani

    ABSTRACT

    Kansai’s economy at a crossroads: double-dip recession or recovery?
    Vaccination and the structural transformation of exports are key.

    Download the full report for a detailed analysis.

    PDF
  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Kansai Economic Insight Quarterly Vol.51

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Quarterly Report(Kansai)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani

    ABSTRACT

    Kansai’s economy is recovering but remains weak.

    ▶ APIR’s forecast for real GRP growth in Kansai is -5.2% in FY 2020 and +3.3% in FY 2021.

    Download the full report for a detailed analysis.

    PDF
  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Kansai Economic Insight Quarterly Vol.50

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Quarterly Report(Kansai)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani

    ABSTRACT

    Covid-19 deals historic blow to Kansai’s economy. Risks abound despite recovering exports to China.

    ▶ APIR’s forecast for real GRP growth in Kansai is -5.2% in FY 2020 and +3.3% in FY 2021.

    Download the full report for a detailed analysis.

    PDF
  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Kansai Economic Insight Quarterly Vol.49

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Quarterly Report(Kansai)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani

    ABSTRACT

    Covid-19 to further debilitate Kansai’s economy: a slump in private and external demand.

    ▶ Our forecast for Kansai’s real GRP growth is -5.1% in FY 2020 and +2.6% in FY 2021.

    ▶ We estimate that the economic loss caused by the state of emergency in Kansai will be JPY 154.3 billion in terms of private consumption, JPY 825.2 billion in terms of private capital investment, and JPY 3,211.8 billion in terms of exports, adding up to a total GRP loss of JPY 3.75 trillion. 158 thousand employees are expected to lose their jobs.

    PDF
  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Kansai Economic Insight Quarterly Vol.48

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Quarterly Report(Kansai)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani

    ABSTRACT

    Slump in private demand to precipitate recession in FY2019-2020

    -Forecast update reflecting the latest GDP estimates and the impact of the coronavirus-

    ▶Our forecast for Kansai’s real GRP growth is -0.2% in FY 2019, -0.5% in FY 2020 and +1.1% in FY 2021. FY2019 growth was revised down by -0.3%pt, and FY2020 growth by -0.7%pt, reflecting the impact of social distancing, self-quarantines and reduced economic activities due to the coronavirus outbreak.

    PDF
  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Kansai Economic Insight Quarterly Vol.45

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Quarterly Report(Kansai)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani

    ABSTRACT

    Overview: Stagnation concerns turning into reality due to weak domestic and external demand. Lack of robust source of growth a major risk in the future.

    ▶ Japan’s Q3 real GDP expanded an annualized +0.2%. Domestic demand propped up growth, while net exports supressed it.

    ▶ Our forecast for Kansai’s real GRP growth is +0.6% in FY 2019, +0.4% in FY 2020 and +0.7% in FY 2021. Private and public demand will make a balanced contribution to growth in FY 2019. In FY 2020, public demand will be the driver of growth. The lack of robust drivers of growth might become a concern by FY 2021.

    ▶ We estimated economic growth by prefecture in the past fiscal years, and we compared the economic impact of the consumption tax hike this year with the previous one in 2014. We conclude that the large increase in demand indicators in September this year was largely due to a recoil from the natural disasters last year.

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