Research

Asia Pacific Economic Forecast : Quarterly Report(Kansai)

APIR provides weekly and monthly assessments of current economic conditions and future outlooks for the United States and Japan. We also provide detailed quarterly predictions for the economies of Kansai and Japan.

  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Kansai Economic Insight Quarterly Vol.44

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Quarterly Report(Kansai)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani

    ABSTRACT

    Summary: Prospects dimmed by growing uncertainties despite continued growth

    ▶ Japan’s real GDP expanded an annualized +1.8% QoQ in 2019Q2 , registering the third consecutive quarter of positive growth.

    ▶ Although Kansai’s basic economic trends remained robust in 2019Q2, prospects seem bearish due to growing uncertainties, notably the China-US trade conflict and the upcoming tax hike, which caused a noticeable deterioration in expectations-related indicators.

    ▶ We forecast real GRP growth of +0.6% in FY2019 and +0.5% in FY2020 in Kansai. Private consumption and government spending will prop up growth, contributing +0.8%pt and +0.4%pt in FY2019, while external demand (outside Kansai) will suppress growth by -0.5%pt. The expected FY2020 contributions are +0.3%pt for private consumption, +0.2%pt for government spending, and -0.0%pt for external demand.

    ▶ We analyze the impact of the trade conflict with Korea on Kansai’s economy and conclude that even if the conflict persists, its impact is likely to be limited.

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  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Kansai Economic Insight Quarterly No. 43

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Quarterly Report(Kansai)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani

    ABSTRACT

    Some sectors of the economy are robust but the outlook remains uncertain, dimmed by US-China trade frictions and the upcoming consumption tax hike.

    • In 2019Q1 Japan’s real GDP registered the second consecutive quarter of positive growth, expanding +0.5% QoQ (+2.1% if annualized).
    • Although some sectors of Kansai’s economy remained robust in 2019Q1, there are growing risks of recession.
    • Our forecast for Kansai’s real GRP growth in FY2019 is +0.7%. Private demand is expected to contribute +0.5%pt, government spending +0.3%pt, and external demand -0.1%pt.
    • We forecast a +0.4% real GRP growth in Kansai in FY2020. The expected contributions are +0.3%pt for private demand, +0.3%pt for government spending, and -0.1%pt for external demand.
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  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Kansai Economic Insight Quarterly No. 40

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Quarterly Report(Kansai)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / IRIE, Hiroaki / OGAWA, Ryo / KINOSHITA, Yusuke

    PDF
  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Kansai Economic Insight Quarterly No. 39

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Quarterly Report(Kansai)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / IRIE, Hiroaki / KINOSHITA, Yusuke / IKUTA, Yusuke / CAO, Thi Khanh Nguyet / MA, Teng

    PDF
  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Kansai Economic Insight Quarterly No. 38

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Quarterly Report(Kansai)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / IRIE, Hiroaki

    PDF
  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Kansai Economic Insight Quarterly (May 2017)

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Quarterly Report(Kansai)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / IRIE, Hiroaki / KINOSHITA, Yusuke / BRADY, James / CAO, Thi Khanh Nguyet / IKUTA, Yusuke

    PDF