Revised Economic Forecast for Kansai’s GRP reflecting the second advance estimate of Q4 2023 GDP:

+1.4% in FY 2023, +1.4% in FY 2024, +1.5% in FY 2025

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Revised Economic Forecast for Kansai’s GRP reflecting the second advance estimate of Q3 2023 GDP:

+1.3% in FY 2023, +1.6% in FY 2024, +1.4% in FY 2025

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Gradual recovery in Kansai continues, but the economy is entering a new phase.

The “post-Covid” phase is over, and so is post-pandemic economic optimism.

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Kansai’s economy keeps improving, but has yet to reach full recovery.

Economic trends in the U.S., Europe, and China will be key for the outlook.

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Gradual recovery driven by domestic demand expected to continue.

Soaring prices and global economic trends remain risk factors.

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Revised Outlook for Kansai’s Economy Reflecting the Second Advance 2022 Q3 GDP Estimate

Real GDP growth forecast: +1.5%in FY 2022, +1.2% in FY 2023, +1.5% in FY 2024

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Despite Kansai’s Continued Recovery, Caution About Economic Recession Grows
Concerns include slowdown in overseas economies and inflation

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Kansai’s economy is picking up, but the speed of     recovery varies significantly across industries.

Despite the weak outlook, increased investment across the entire region is    expected to bring about an economic turnaround

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Overseas factors casting a shadow on the normalization of economic activity.

China’s zero-COVID policy will have a major impact on Kansai’s economy.

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Uncertainties dim outlook for a full-fledged recovery

– In addition to the COVID-19 pandemic, the international situation, soaring energy prices, and other factors are exerting downward pressure on Kansai’s economy-

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Forecast for Kansai’s economy updated due to revisions in 2021 Q3 second advance GDP estimate

– Real GRP to grow +2.8% in FY 2021, +2.8% in FY 2022 and +1.8% in FY 2023 –

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Kansai’s recovering economy in a lull due to COVID-19 countermeasures                  

– Full recovery delayed to 2022 and beyond –

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Kansai’s economy on an upward trajectory, but far from full recovery

– Spread of new COVID-19 variants meddling with recovery patterns –

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Kansai’s economy set on an upward trajectory, halfway through to a full recovery
– Moving toward mass vaccination and a growing domestic demand –

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Kansai’s economy at a crossroads: double-dip recession or recovery?
Vaccination and the structural transformation of exports are key.

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Kansai’s economy is recovering but remains weak.

▶ APIR’s forecast for real GRP growth in Kansai is -5.2% in FY 2020 and +3.3% in FY 2021.

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Covid-19 deals historic blow to Kansai’s economy. Risks abound despite recovering exports to China.

▶ APIR’s forecast for real GRP growth in Kansai is -5.2% in FY 2020 and +3.3% in FY 2021.

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Covid-19 to further debilitate Kansai’s economy: a slump in private and external demand.

▶ Our forecast for Kansai’s real GRP growth is -5.1% in FY 2020 and +2.6% in FY 2021.

▶ We estimate that the economic loss caused by the state of emergency in Kansai will be JPY 154.3 billion in terms of private consumption, JPY 825.2 billion in terms of private capital investment, and JPY 3,211.8 billion in terms of exports, adding up to a total GRP loss of JPY 3.75 trillion. 158 thousand employees are expected to lose their jobs.

Slump in private demand to precipitate recession in FY2019-2020

-Forecast update reflecting the latest GDP estimates and the impact of the coronavirus-

▶Our forecast for Kansai’s real GRP growth is -0.2% in FY 2019, -0.5% in FY 2020 and +1.1% in FY 2021. FY2019 growth was revised down by -0.3%pt, and FY2020 growth by -0.7%pt, reflecting the impact of social distancing, self-quarantines and reduced economic activities due to the coronavirus outbreak.