Asia Pacific Economic Forecast : Quarterly Report(Kansai)
APIR provides weekly and monthly assessments of current economic conditions and future outlooks for the United States and Japan. We also provide detailed quarterly predictions for the economies of Kansai and Japan.
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Kansai Economic Insight Quarterly No.67
Asia Pacific Economic Forecast
Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Quarterly Report(Kansai)
/ DATE :
ABSTRACT
Revised Economic Forecast for Kansai’s GRP reflecting the second advance estimate of Q3 2023 GDP:
+1.3% in FY 2023, +1.6% in FY 2024, +1.4% in FY 2025
Download the full report for a detailed analysis.
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Kansai Economic Insight Quarterly No.66
Asia Pacific Economic Forecast
Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Quarterly Report(Kansai)
/ DATE :
ABSTRACT
Gradual recovery in Kansai continues, but the economy is entering a new phase.
The “post-Covid” phase is over, and so is post-pandemic economic optimism.
Download the full report for a detailed analysis.
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Kansai Economic Insight Quarterly No.65
Asia Pacific Economic Forecast
Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Quarterly Report(Kansai)
/ DATE :
ABSTRACT
Kansai’s economy keeps improving, but has yet to reach full recovery.
Economic trends in the U.S., Europe, and China will be key for the outlook.
Download the full report for a detailed analysis.
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Kansai Economic Insight Quarterly No.64
Asia Pacific Economic Forecast
Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Quarterly Report(Kansai)
/ DATE :
ABSTRACT
Kansai economy heading for a virtuous circle led by recovery in consumption: Upward economic trend likely to continue
Download the full report for a detailed analysis.
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Kansai Economic Insight Quarterly No.63
Asia Pacific Economic Forecast
Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Quarterly Report(Kansai)
/ DATE :
ABSTRACT
Gradual recovery driven by domestic demand expected to continue.
Soaring prices and global economic trends remain risk factors.
Download the full report for a detailed analysis.
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Kansai Economic Insight Quarterly No.62
Asia Pacific Economic Forecast
Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Quarterly Report(Kansai)
/ DATE :
ABSTRACT
Revised Outlook for Kansai’s Economy Reflecting the Second Advance 2022 Q3 GDP Estimate
Real GDP growth forecast: +1.5%in FY 2022, +1.2% in FY 2023, +1.5% in FY 2024
Download the full report for a detailed analysis.
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Kansai Economic Insight Quarterly No.61
Asia Pacific Economic Forecast
Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Quarterly Report(Kansai)
/ DATE :
ABSTRACT
Despite Kansai’s Continued Recovery, Caution About Economic Recession Grows
Concerns include slowdown in overseas economies and inflationDownload the full report for a detailed analysis.
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Kansai Economic Insight Quarterly No.60
Asia Pacific Economic Forecast
Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Quarterly Report(Kansai)
/ DATE :
ABSTRACT
Kansai’s economy is picking up, but the speed of recovery varies significantly across industries.
Despite the weak outlook, increased investment across the entire region is expected to bring about an economic turnaround
Download the full report for a detailed analysis.
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Kansai Economic Insight Quarterly No.59
Asia Pacific Economic Forecast
Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Quarterly Report(Kansai)
/ DATE :
ABSTRACT
Overseas factors casting a shadow on the normalization of economic activity.
China’s zero-COVID policy will have a major impact on Kansai’s economy.
Download the full report for a detailed analysis.
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Kansai Economic Insight Quarterly No.58
Asia Pacific Economic Forecast
Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Quarterly Report(Kansai)
/ DATE :
ABSTRACT
Uncertainties dim outlook for a full-fledged recovery
– In addition to the COVID-19 pandemic, the international situation, soaring energy prices, and other factors are exerting downward pressure on Kansai’s economy-
Download the full report for a detailed analysis.
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Kansai Economic Insight Quarterly No.57
Asia Pacific Economic Forecast
Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Quarterly Report(Kansai)
/ DATE :
ABSTRACT
Forecast for Kansai’s economy updated due to revisions in 2021 Q3 second advance GDP estimate
– Real GRP to grow +2.8% in FY 2021, +2.8% in FY 2022 and +1.8% in FY 2023 –
Download the full report for a detailed analysis.
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Kansai Economic Insight Quarterly No.56
Asia Pacific Economic Forecast
Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Quarterly Report(Kansai)
/ DATE :
ABSTRACT
Kansai’s recovering economy in a lull due to COVID-19 countermeasures
– Full recovery delayed to 2022 and beyond –
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Kansai Economic Insight Quarterly Vol.55
Asia Pacific Economic Forecast
Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Quarterly Report(Kansai)
/ DATE :
ABSTRACT
Kansai’s economy on an upward trajectory, but far from full recovery
– Spread of new COVID-19 variants meddling with recovery patterns –
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Kansai Economic Insight Quarterly Vol.54
Asia Pacific Economic Forecast
Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Quarterly Report(Kansai)
/ DATE :
ABSTRACT
Kansai’s economy set on an upward trajectory, halfway through to a full recovery
– Moving toward mass vaccination and a growing domestic demand –Download the full report for a detailed analysis.
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Kansai Economic Insight Quarterly Vol.53
Asia Pacific Economic Forecast
Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Quarterly Report(Kansai)
/ DATE :
ABSTRACT
Kansai’s economy at a crossroads: double-dip recession or recovery?
Vaccination and the structural transformation of exports are key.Download the full report for a detailed analysis.
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Kansai Economic Insight Quarterly Vol.51
Asia Pacific Economic Forecast
Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Quarterly Report(Kansai)
/ DATE :
ABSTRACT
Kansai’s economy is recovering but remains weak.
▶ APIR’s forecast for real GRP growth in Kansai is -5.2% in FY 2020 and +3.3% in FY 2021.
Download the full report for a detailed analysis.
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Kansai Economic Insight Quarterly Vol.50
Asia Pacific Economic Forecast
Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Quarterly Report(Kansai)
/ DATE :
ABSTRACT
Covid-19 deals historic blow to Kansai’s economy. Risks abound despite recovering exports to China.
▶ APIR’s forecast for real GRP growth in Kansai is -5.2% in FY 2020 and +3.3% in FY 2021.
Download the full report for a detailed analysis.
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Kansai Economic Insight Quarterly Vol.49
Asia Pacific Economic Forecast
Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Quarterly Report(Kansai)
/ DATE :
ABSTRACT
Covid-19 to further debilitate Kansai’s economy: a slump in private and external demand.
▶ Our forecast for Kansai’s real GRP growth is -5.1% in FY 2020 and +2.6% in FY 2021.
▶ We estimate that the economic loss caused by the state of emergency in Kansai will be JPY 154.3 billion in terms of private consumption, JPY 825.2 billion in terms of private capital investment, and JPY 3,211.8 billion in terms of exports, adding up to a total GRP loss of JPY 3.75 trillion. 158 thousand employees are expected to lose their jobs.
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Kansai Economic Insight Quarterly Vol.48
Asia Pacific Economic Forecast
Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Quarterly Report(Kansai)
/ DATE :
ABSTRACT
Slump in private demand to precipitate recession in FY2019-2020
-Forecast update reflecting the latest GDP estimates and the impact of the coronavirus-
▶Our forecast for Kansai’s real GRP growth is -0.2% in FY 2019, -0.5% in FY 2020 and +1.1% in FY 2021. FY2019 growth was revised down by -0.3%pt, and FY2020 growth by -0.7%pt, reflecting the impact of social distancing, self-quarantines and reduced economic activities due to the coronavirus outbreak.
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Kansai Economic Insight Quarterly Vol.45
Asia Pacific Economic Forecast
Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Quarterly Report(Kansai)
/ DATE :
ABSTRACT
Overview: Stagnation concerns turning into reality due to weak domestic and external demand. Lack of robust source of growth a major risk in the future.
▶ Japan’s Q3 real GDP expanded an annualized +0.2%. Domestic demand propped up growth, while net exports supressed it.
▶ Our forecast for Kansai’s real GRP growth is +0.6% in FY 2019, +0.4% in FY 2020 and +0.7% in FY 2021. Private and public demand will make a balanced contribution to growth in FY 2019. In FY 2020, public demand will be the driver of growth. The lack of robust drivers of growth might become a concern by FY 2021.
▶ We estimated economic growth by prefecture in the past fiscal years, and we compared the economic impact of the consumption tax hike this year with the previous one in 2014. We conclude that the large increase in demand indicators in September this year was largely due to a recoil from the natural disasters last year.