Final Assessment of the Economic Ripple Effects of the Expo 2025 Osaka, Kansai, Japan

APIR has so far conducted five rounds of estimates regarding the economic ripple effects of the Osaka-Kansai Expo. The first four rounds were estimates based on certain assumptions, while the fifth round (December 2025) reflected actual visitor spending based on survey data. In this paper, we also reflect actual figures for Expo-related project costs to present a final estimate of the economic ripple effects. Our findings are summarized as follows.

1. According to the final estimate, the economic ripple effect of the Osaka-Kansai Expo was 3,512.1 billion JPY, exceeding both the “Greater EXPO” scenario (3,366.7 billion JPY) and the “Baseline” scenario (2,745.7 billion JPY) from our 2024 estimates. Of this total, the final estimate for Expo-Related Project Costs exceeded the 2024 estimates (both the baseline and Greater EXPO scenarios). However, while visitor spending in the final estimate exceeded the baseline scenario, it fell short of the Greater EXPO case.
2. Looking at the economic ripple effects by prefecture, 61.5% were concentrated in Osaka Prefecture, but a significant effect of 38.5% was observed in prefectures other than the host prefecture. Of this, Expo-related project costs were 74.4% in Osaka Prefecture and 25.6% in prefectures other than the host prefecture. Visitor spending had a more widespread impact than anticipated (53.2% on prefectures other than the host prefecture); however, from the perspective of the “Greater EXPO,” the effects were limited to certain regions (Osaka and Kyoto Prefectures: 58.3%).
3. This paper examines the economic ripple effects from a short-term perspective. In the medium to long term, in order to link the achievements of the Osaka-Kansai Expo to the future sustainable economic growth of the Kansai region and Japan as a whole, it will be necessary to enhance the effectiveness of business matching, facilitate the societal implementation of new technologies, and support entrepreneurship and policy measures that further expand investment.
4. What is crucial is proactive investment, and we must ensure that its results are solidified for the future. The Expo is an investment in the future, and medium- to long-term results (on the supply side) are as important as short-term results (on the demand side).