Research

List of papers in Kansai economy研究・論文一覧

  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Kansai Economic Insight Quarterly Vol.54

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Quarterly Report(Kansai)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani

    ABSTRACT

    Kansai’s economy set on an upward trajectory, halfway through to a full recovery
    – Moving toward mass vaccination and a growing domestic demand –

    Download the full report for a detailed analysis.

    PDF
  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Kansai Economic Insight Monthly Vol. 97 (May 2021)

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Monthly Report(Kansai)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani

    ABSTRACT

    Outlook: Kansai’s economy back on track to recovery but prospects overshadowed by new state of emergency. 

    Download the full report for a detailed analysis.

    PDF
  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Kansai Economic Insight Monthly Vol. 96 (April 2021)

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Monthly Report(Kansai)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani

    ABSTRACT

    Outlook: Kansai’s economy is on track to recovery but resurging infections are likely to undermine spending on services

    Download the full report for a detailed analysis.

    PDF
  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Kansai Economic Insight Monthly Vol. 95 (March 2021)

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Monthly Report(Kansai)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani

    ABSTRACT

    Outlook: Kansai’s economy expected to recover but resurging infections pose risks

    Download the full report for a detailed analysis.

    PDF
  • 稲田 義久

    Kansai Economic Insight Quarterly Vol.53

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Quarterly Report(Kansai)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    稲田 義久 / KARAVASILEV, Yani

    ABSTRACT

    Kansai’s economy at a crossroads: double-dip recession or recovery?
    Vaccination and the structural transformation of exports are key.

    Download the full report for a detailed analysis.

    PDF
  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Kansai Economic Insight Monthly Vol. 94 (February 2021)

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Monthly Report(Kansai)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani

    ABSTRACT

    Outlook: Kansai’s economy expected to recover after bottoming out

    Download the full report for a detailed analysis.

    PDF
  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Kansai Economic Insight Monthly Vol. 93 (January 2021)

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Monthly Report(Kansai)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani

    ABSTRACT

    Outlook: Kansai’s economy expected to recover after bottoming out

    Download the full report for a detailed analysis.

    PDF
  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Kansai Economic Insight Monthly Vol. 92 (December 2020)

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Monthly Report(Kansai)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani

    ABSTRACT

    Outlook: Kansai’s economy shows signs of recovery after bottoming out

    Download the full report for a detailed analysis.

    PDF
  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Kansai Economic Insight Monthly Vol. 91 (November 2020)

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Monthly Report(Kansai)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani

    ABSTRACT

    Outlook: Kansai’s economy shows signs of recovery after bottoming out

    Download the full report for a detailed analysis.

    PDF
  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Kansai Economic Insight Monthly Vol. 90 (October 2020)

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Monthly Report(Kansai)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani

    ABSTRACT

    Outlook: Kansai’s economy shows signs of bottoming out

    Download the full report for a detailed analysis.

    PDF
  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Kansai Economic Insight Monthly Vol. 89 (September 2020)

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Monthly Report(Kansai)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani

    ABSTRACT

    Outlook: Kansai’s economy keeps deteriorating but shows signs of bottoming out

    Download the full report for a detailed analysis.

    PDF
  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Kansai Economic Insight Quarterly Vol.50

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Quarterly Report(Kansai)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani

    ABSTRACT

    Covid-19 deals historic blow to Kansai’s economy. Risks abound despite recovering exports to China.

    ▶ APIR’s forecast for real GRP growth in Kansai is -5.2% in FY 2020 and +3.3% in FY 2021.

    Download the full report for a detailed analysis.

    PDF
  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Kansai Economic Insight Monthly Vol. 88 (August 2020)

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Monthly Report(Kansai)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani

    ABSTRACT

    Outlook: Kansai’s economy keeps deteriorating but shows signs of bottoming out

    Download the full report for a detailed analysis.

    PDF
  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Kansai Economic Insight Monthly Vol. 87 (July 2020)

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Monthly Report(Kansai)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani

    ABSTRACT

    Outlook: Severe economic deterioration looming in Kansai

    Download the full report for a detailed analysis.

    PDF
  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Kansai Economic Insight Monthly Vol. 86 (June 2020)

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Monthly Report(Kansai)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani

    ABSTRACT

    Outlook: Severe economic deterioration looming

    Download the full report for a detailed analysis.

    PDF
  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Kansai Economic Insight Monthly Vol. 85 (May 2020)

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Monthly Report(Kansai)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani

    ABSTRACT

    Outlook: Kansai’s economy likely to remain on a downward trajectory

    Download the report for a detailed analysis.

    PDF
  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Kansai Economic Insight Quarterly Vol.49

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Quarterly Report(Kansai)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani

    ABSTRACT

    Covid-19 to further debilitate Kansai’s economy: a slump in private and external demand.

    ▶ Our forecast for Kansai’s real GRP growth is -5.1% in FY 2020 and +2.6% in FY 2021.

    ▶ We estimate that the economic loss caused by the state of emergency in Kansai will be JPY 154.3 billion in terms of private consumption, JPY 825.2 billion in terms of private capital investment, and JPY 3,211.8 billion in terms of exports, adding up to a total GRP loss of JPY 3.75 trillion. 158 thousand employees are expected to lose their jobs.

    PDF
  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Kansai Economic Insight Monthly Vol. 84 (April 2020)

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Monthly Report(Kansai)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani

    ABSTRACT

    Outlook: Kansai’s economy is likely to remain on a downward trajectory

    ▶  Production: Production declined in February.
    ▶  International trade: In March, Kansai’s trade surplus was smaller than the previous month.
    ▶  Business confidence: The Economy Watcher DI in March reached an all-time low.
    ▶  Wages: Both nominal and real wages kept declining in January.
    ▶  Labor market: In February, the job offers-to-applicants ratio kept deteriorating, and the unemployment rate kept increasing.
    ▶  Private Consumption: In February, department store sales plummeted while supermarket sales rose due to stockpiling in the face of the coronavirus pandemic.
    ▶  Housing: The number of new housing starts kept decreasing in February.
    ▶  Construction: Construction investments in February kept expanding, albeit at a decelerating pace. The contract amount for public works projects in March increased.
    ▶   Inbound tourism: Due to the impact of the coronavirus, the number of international arrivals at Kansai International Airport in March plunged -95.1% year-on-year.
    ▶  Chinese economy: China saw its Q1 GDP shrink for the first time since quarterly GDP statistics started in 1992.

    PDF
  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Kansai Economic Insight Monthly Vol. 83 (March 2020)

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Monthly Report(Kansai)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani

    ABSTRACT

    Outlook: Kansai’s economy is likely to remain on a downward trajectory

    ▶  Production: Although production increased in January, it has not recovered from the October-November slump.
    ▶  International trade: In February, Kansai’s trade deficit turned into a surplus due to the slump in imports from coronavirus-hit China.
    ▶  Business confidence: The Economy Watcher DI in February reached its lowest level since April 2011 (after the Great East Japan Earthquake).
    ▶  Wages: Both nominal and real wages kept declining in December.
    ▶  Labor market: In January, the job offers-to-applicants ratio deteriorated, and the unemployment rate increased.
    ▶  Private Consumption: Department store and supermarket sales in January kept declining. Duty-free sales plunged -71.9% in February.
    ▶  Housing: The number of new housing starts decreased in January.
    ▶  Construction: Construction investments kept expanding in January, but the growth is decelerating. The contract amount for public works projects in February decreased.
    ▶   Inbound tourism: Due to the impact of the coronavirus, the number of international arrivals at Kansai International Airport in February slumped -66.0% year-on-year.
    ▶  Chinese economy: Coronavirus-hit China saw its manufacturing PMI drop to a historic low of 35.7 in February, a level lower than the one registered during the Global Financial Crisis.

    PDF
  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Kansai Economic Insight Quarterly Vol.48

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Quarterly Report(Kansai)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani

    ABSTRACT

    Slump in private demand to precipitate recession in FY2019-2020

    -Forecast update reflecting the latest GDP estimates and the impact of the coronavirus-

    ▶Our forecast for Kansai’s real GRP growth is -0.2% in FY 2019, -0.5% in FY 2020 and +1.1% in FY 2021. FY2019 growth was revised down by -0.3%pt, and FY2020 growth by -0.7%pt, reflecting the impact of social distancing, self-quarantines and reduced economic activities due to the coronavirus outbreak.

    PDF