Outlook: Kansai’s economy is back on track to recovery. The vaccine rollout is expected to play a key role in the recovery of private consumption. 

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Kansai’s economy set on an upward trajectory, halfway through to a full recovery
– Moving toward mass vaccination and a growing domestic demand –

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Outlook: Kansai’s economy back on track to recovery but prospects overshadowed by new state of emergency. 

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Outlook: Kansai’s economy is on track to recovery but resurging infections are likely to undermine spending on services

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Outlook: Kansai’s economy expected to recover but resurging infections pose risks

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Kansai’s economy at a crossroads: double-dip recession or recovery?
Vaccination and the structural transformation of exports are key.

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Outlook: Kansai’s economy expected to recover after bottoming out

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Outlook: Kansai’s economy expected to recover after bottoming out

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Outlook: Kansai’s economy shows signs of recovery after bottoming out

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Outlook: Kansai’s economy shows signs of recovery after bottoming out

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Outlook: Kansai’s economy shows signs of bottoming out

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Outlook: Kansai’s economy keeps deteriorating but shows signs of bottoming out

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Covid-19 deals historic blow to Kansai’s economy. Risks abound despite recovering exports to China.

▶ APIR’s forecast for real GRP growth in Kansai is -5.2% in FY 2020 and +3.3% in FY 2021.

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Outlook: Kansai’s economy keeps deteriorating but shows signs of bottoming out

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Outlook: Severe economic deterioration looming in Kansai

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Outlook: Severe economic deterioration looming

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Outlook: Kansai’s economy likely to remain on a downward trajectory

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Covid-19 to further debilitate Kansai’s economy: a slump in private and external demand.

▶ Our forecast for Kansai’s real GRP growth is -5.1% in FY 2020 and +2.6% in FY 2021.

▶ We estimate that the economic loss caused by the state of emergency in Kansai will be JPY 154.3 billion in terms of private consumption, JPY 825.2 billion in terms of private capital investment, and JPY 3,211.8 billion in terms of exports, adding up to a total GRP loss of JPY 3.75 trillion. 158 thousand employees are expected to lose their jobs.

Outlook: Kansai’s economy is likely to remain on a downward trajectory

▶  Production: Production declined in February.
▶  International trade: In March, Kansai’s trade surplus was smaller than the previous month.
▶  Business confidence: The Economy Watcher DI in March reached an all-time low.
▶  Wages: Both nominal and real wages kept declining in January.
▶  Labor market: In February, the job offers-to-applicants ratio kept deteriorating, and the unemployment rate kept increasing.
▶  Private Consumption: In February, department store sales plummeted while supermarket sales rose due to stockpiling in the face of the coronavirus pandemic.
▶  Housing: The number of new housing starts kept decreasing in February.
▶  Construction: Construction investments in February kept expanding, albeit at a decelerating pace. The contract amount for public works projects in March increased.
▶   Inbound tourism: Due to the impact of the coronavirus, the number of international arrivals at Kansai International Airport in March plunged -95.1% year-on-year.
▶  Chinese economy: China saw its Q1 GDP shrink for the first time since quarterly GDP statistics started in 1992.

Outlook: Kansai’s economy is likely to remain on a downward trajectory

▶  Production: Although production increased in January, it has not recovered from the October-November slump.
▶  International trade: In February, Kansai’s trade deficit turned into a surplus due to the slump in imports from coronavirus-hit China.
▶  Business confidence: The Economy Watcher DI in February reached its lowest level since April 2011 (after the Great East Japan Earthquake).
▶  Wages: Both nominal and real wages kept declining in December.
▶  Labor market: In January, the job offers-to-applicants ratio deteriorated, and the unemployment rate increased.
▶  Private Consumption: Department store and supermarket sales in January kept declining. Duty-free sales plunged -71.9% in February.
▶  Housing: The number of new housing starts decreased in January.
▶  Construction: Construction investments kept expanding in January, but the growth is decelerating. The contract amount for public works projects in February decreased.
▶   Inbound tourism: Due to the impact of the coronavirus, the number of international arrivals at Kansai International Airport in February slumped -66.0% year-on-year.
▶  Chinese economy: Coronavirus-hit China saw its manufacturing PMI drop to a historic low of 35.7 in February, a level lower than the one registered during the Global Financial Crisis.