Research

List of papers in Kansai economy研究・論文一覧

  • 稲田 義久

    Kansai Economic Insight Quarterly Vol.53

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Quarterly Report(Kansai)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    稲田 義久 / KARAVASILEV, Yani

    ABSTRACT

    Kansai’s economy at a crossroads: double-dip recession or recovery?
    Vaccination and the structural transformation of exports are key.

    Download the full report for a detailed analysis.

    PDF
  • 稲田 義久

    Kansai Economic Insight Monthly Vol. 94 (February 2021)

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Monthly Report(Kansai)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    稲田 義久 / KARAVASILEV, Yani

    ABSTRACT

    Outlook: Kansai’s economy expected to recover after bottoming out

    Download the full report for a detailed analysis.

    PDF
  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Kansai Economic Insight Monthly Vol. 93 (January 2021)

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Monthly Report(Kansai)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani

    ABSTRACT

    Outlook: Kansai’s economy expected to recover after bottoming out

    Download the full report for a detailed analysis.

    PDF
  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Kansai Economic Insight Monthly Vol. 92 (December 2020)

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Monthly Report(Kansai)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani

    ABSTRACT

    Outlook: Kansai’s economy shows signs of recovery after bottoming out

    Download the full report for a detailed analysis.

    PDF
  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Kansai Economic Insight Monthly Vol. 91 (November 2020)

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Monthly Report(Kansai)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani

    ABSTRACT

    Outlook: Kansai’s economy shows signs of recovery after bottoming out

    Download the full report for a detailed analysis.

    PDF
  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Kansai Economic Insight Monthly Vol. 90 (October 2020)

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Monthly Report(Kansai)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani

    ABSTRACT

    Outlook: Kansai’s economy shows signs of bottoming out

    Download the full report for a detailed analysis.

    PDF
  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Kansai Economic Insight Monthly Vol. 89 (September 2020)

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Monthly Report(Kansai)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani

    ABSTRACT

    Outlook: Kansai’s economy keeps deteriorating but shows signs of bottoming out

    Download the full report for a detailed analysis.

    PDF
  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Kansai Economic Insight Quarterly Vol.50

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Quarterly Report(Kansai)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani

    ABSTRACT

    Covid-19 deals historic blow to Kansai’s economy. Risks abound despite recovering exports to China.

    ▶ APIR’s forecast for real GRP growth in Kansai is -5.2% in FY 2020 and +3.3% in FY 2021.

    Download the full report for a detailed analysis.

    PDF
  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Kansai Economic Insight Monthly Vol. 88 (August 2020)

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Monthly Report(Kansai)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani

    ABSTRACT

    Outlook: Kansai’s economy keeps deteriorating but shows signs of bottoming out

    Download the full report for a detailed analysis.

    PDF
  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Kansai Economic Insight Monthly Vol. 87 (July 2020)

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Monthly Report(Kansai)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani

    ABSTRACT

    Outlook: Severe economic deterioration looming in Kansai

    Download the full report for a detailed analysis.

    PDF
  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Kansai Economic Insight Monthly Vol. 86 (June 2020)

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Monthly Report(Kansai)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani

    ABSTRACT

    Outlook: Severe economic deterioration looming

    Download the full report for a detailed analysis.

    PDF
  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Kansai Economic Insight Monthly Vol. 85 (May 2020)

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Monthly Report(Kansai)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani

    ABSTRACT

    Outlook: Kansai’s economy likely to remain on a downward trajectory

    Download the report for a detailed analysis.

    PDF
  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Kansai Economic Insight Quarterly Vol.49

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Quarterly Report(Kansai)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani

    ABSTRACT

    Covid-19 to further debilitate Kansai’s economy: a slump in private and external demand.

    ▶ Our forecast for Kansai’s real GRP growth is -5.1% in FY 2020 and +2.6% in FY 2021.

    ▶ We estimate that the economic loss caused by the state of emergency in Kansai will be JPY 154.3 billion in terms of private consumption, JPY 825.2 billion in terms of private capital investment, and JPY 3,211.8 billion in terms of exports, adding up to a total GRP loss of JPY 3.75 trillion. 158 thousand employees are expected to lose their jobs.

    PDF
  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Kansai Economic Insight Monthly Vol. 84 (April 2020)

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Monthly Report(Kansai)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani

    ABSTRACT

    Outlook: Kansai’s economy is likely to remain on a downward trajectory

    ▶  Production: Production declined in February.
    ▶  International trade: In March, Kansai’s trade surplus was smaller than the previous month.
    ▶  Business confidence: The Economy Watcher DI in March reached an all-time low.
    ▶  Wages: Both nominal and real wages kept declining in January.
    ▶  Labor market: In February, the job offers-to-applicants ratio kept deteriorating, and the unemployment rate kept increasing.
    ▶  Private Consumption: In February, department store sales plummeted while supermarket sales rose due to stockpiling in the face of the coronavirus pandemic.
    ▶  Housing: The number of new housing starts kept decreasing in February.
    ▶  Construction: Construction investments in February kept expanding, albeit at a decelerating pace. The contract amount for public works projects in March increased.
    ▶   Inbound tourism: Due to the impact of the coronavirus, the number of international arrivals at Kansai International Airport in March plunged -95.1% year-on-year.
    ▶  Chinese economy: China saw its Q1 GDP shrink for the first time since quarterly GDP statistics started in 1992.

    PDF
  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Kansai Economic Insight Monthly Vol. 83 (March 2020)

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Monthly Report(Kansai)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani

    ABSTRACT

    Outlook: Kansai’s economy is likely to remain on a downward trajectory

    ▶  Production: Although production increased in January, it has not recovered from the October-November slump.
    ▶  International trade: In February, Kansai’s trade deficit turned into a surplus due to the slump in imports from coronavirus-hit China.
    ▶  Business confidence: The Economy Watcher DI in February reached its lowest level since April 2011 (after the Great East Japan Earthquake).
    ▶  Wages: Both nominal and real wages kept declining in December.
    ▶  Labor market: In January, the job offers-to-applicants ratio deteriorated, and the unemployment rate increased.
    ▶  Private Consumption: Department store and supermarket sales in January kept declining. Duty-free sales plunged -71.9% in February.
    ▶  Housing: The number of new housing starts decreased in January.
    ▶  Construction: Construction investments kept expanding in January, but the growth is decelerating. The contract amount for public works projects in February decreased.
    ▶   Inbound tourism: Due to the impact of the coronavirus, the number of international arrivals at Kansai International Airport in February slumped -66.0% year-on-year.
    ▶  Chinese economy: Coronavirus-hit China saw its manufacturing PMI drop to a historic low of 35.7 in February, a level lower than the one registered during the Global Financial Crisis.

    PDF
  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Kansai Economic Insight Quarterly Vol.48

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Quarterly Report(Kansai)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani

    ABSTRACT

    Slump in private demand to precipitate recession in FY2019-2020

    -Forecast update reflecting the latest GDP estimates and the impact of the coronavirus-

    ▶Our forecast for Kansai’s real GRP growth is -0.2% in FY 2019, -0.5% in FY 2020 and +1.1% in FY 2021. FY2019 growth was revised down by -0.3%pt, and FY2020 growth by -0.7%pt, reflecting the impact of social distancing, self-quarantines and reduced economic activities due to the coronavirus outbreak.

    PDF
  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Kansai Economic Insight Monthly Vol. 82 (February 2020)

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Monthly Report(Kansai)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani

    ABSTRACT

    Summary: Kansai’s economy is deteriorating but likely to level off

    ▶  Production: Production in December increased for the first time in three months. However, overall Q4 production registered the largest decline since the Global Financial Crisis.
    ▶  International trade: In January, Kansai logged a trade deficit. Both exports and imports kept shrinking.
    ▶  Business confidence: The Economy Watcher DI improved in January. However, concerns about the economic impact of the coronavirus epidemic are growing.
    ▶  Wages: Both nominal and real wages kept declining in November.
    ▶  Labor market: In December, the effective job offers-to-applicants ratio improved, but the unemployment rate increased.
    ▶  Private Consumption: Large retailers’ sales kept declining in December. The recovery from the consumption tax hike in October is taking longer than it did in after the tax hike in April 2014.
    ▶  Housing: Although the number of new housing starts in December increased for the first time in five months, 2019 saw an overall decline.
    ▶  Construction: Construction investments marked the the 22st straight month of expansion in December. The contract amount for public works projects in January increased in all prefectures.
    ▶   Inbound tourism: The number of international arrivals at Kansai International Airport in January increased for the first time in two months. The impact of the coronavirus is yet to be felt.
    ▶  Chinese economy: The release of key statistics has been delayed due to the coronavirus outbreak. Excluding the Hubei province, factories across China are gradually resuming operations. Concerns about the future of the Chinese economy are growing.

    PDF
  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Kansai Economic Insight Monthly Vol. 81 (January 2020)

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Monthly Report(Kansai)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani

    ABSTRACT

    Summary: Kansai’s economy is deteriorating but likely to level off

    ▶  Production: Production declined for the second consecutive month in November.
    ▶  International trade: Although Kansai logged a trade surplus in December, both exports and imports kept shrinking.
    ▶  Business confidence: The Economy Watcher DI improved in December. Hopwever, it remains low.
    ▶  Wages: Both nominal and real wages kept declining in October.
    ▶  Labor market: In November, the effective job offers-to-applicants ratio deteriorated. Although the unemployment rate decreased , the labor force population shrank for the first time in two months.
    ▶  Consumption: Large retailers’ revenues kept declining in November. The effect of the consumption tax hike has not worn off completely.
    ▶  Housing: The number of new housing starts in November decreased for the fourth month in a row.
    ▶  Construction: Construction investments marked the the 21st straight month of expansion in November.
    ▶   Inbound tourism:  The number of international arrivals at Kansai International Airport in December declined for the first time in 15 months.
    ▶  Chinese economy: China’s GDP expanded +6.1% in 2019, reaching the lower bound of the government’s target. Although China and the US signed a “phase one” trade deal in January 2020, structural problems will remain a major issue.

    PDF
  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Kansai Economic Insight Monthly Vol. 80 (December 2019)

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Monthly Report(Kansai)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani

    ABSTRACT

    Summary: Kansai’s economy is deteriorating but likely to level off

    ▶  Production: Production in October declined after expanding in September.
    ▶  International trade: Although Kansai logged a trade surplus in November, exports and imports kept shrinking.
    ▶  Business confidence: The DI improved in November but it remains low.
    ▶  Wages: Both nominal and real wages kept declining in September.
    ▶  Labor market: The number of job openings decreased and unemployment increased in October.
    ▶  Consumption: Large retailers’ revenues in October slumped after the consumption tax hike.
    ▶  Housing: The number of new housing starts in October declined.
    ▶  Construction: The monetary value of construction investments in October kept rising.
    ▶   Inbound tourism: International arrivals at KIX in November grew despite the decline in Korean visitor numbers.
    ▶  Chinese economy: China’s PMI improved in November, surpassing the cutoff level of 50 for the first time in seven months. However, the future outlook remains unclear.

     

     

    PDF
  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Kansai Economic Insight Quarterly Vol.45

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Quarterly Report(Kansai)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani

    ABSTRACT

    Overview: Stagnation concerns turning into reality due to weak domestic and external demand. Lack of robust source of growth a major risk in the future.

    ▶ Japan’s Q3 real GDP expanded an annualized +0.2%. Domestic demand propped up growth, while net exports supressed it.

    ▶ Our forecast for Kansai’s real GRP growth is +0.6% in FY 2019, +0.4% in FY 2020 and +0.7% in FY 2021. Private and public demand will make a balanced contribution to growth in FY 2019. In FY 2020, public demand will be the driver of growth. The lack of robust drivers of growth might become a concern by FY 2021.

    ▶ We estimated economic growth by prefecture in the past fiscal years, and we compared the economic impact of the consumption tax hike this year with the previous one in 2014. We conclude that the large increase in demand indicators in September this year was largely due to a recoil from the natural disasters last year.

    PDF