Research

List of papers in Kansai economy研究・論文一覧

  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Kansai Economic Insight Monthly Vol.77 (September 2019)

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Monthly Report(Kansai)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani

    ABSTRACT

    Summary: Further economic deterioration in sight
    ▶ Production in July expanded MoM for the first time in two months.
    ▶ Although Kansai logged a trade surplus in August, the total trade volume kept declining. The slowdown of the Chinese economy had a major negative impact. In contrast, the impact of trade tensions with Korea remains limited to individual firms.
    ▶ The Economy Watchers’ Diffusion Index (DI) in August improved MoM for the first time in four months.
    ▶ Nominal wages in June increased in Shiga, Hyogo and Kyoto, but declined in Nara and Wakayama.
    ▶ Sales by large retailers in July fell below last year’s level for the first time in three months.
    ▶ Housing construction expanded due to rush demand, but the increase was modest compared to the one seen before the previous tax hike in 2014.
    ▶ The effective job offers-to-applicants ratio in July declined slightly. The unemployment rate declined to 2.4%.
    ▶ July was the 17th month of uninterrupted YoY growth in public construction works.
    ▶ The number of international arrivals at Kansai International Airport in August grew YoY for the 11th consecutive month. However, growth decelerated to +4.9% (from +15.5% in July) due to the deterioration in Korea-Japan relations.
    ▶ China’s economic slowdown become more evident in August. Car sales kept declining (-8.1% YoY), and investment in the industrial sector decelerated significantly. China’s total trade volume shrank for the fourth consecutive month.

    PDF
  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Kansai Economic Insight Quarterly Vol.44

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Quarterly Report(Kansai)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani

    ABSTRACT

    Summary: Prospects dimmed by growing uncertainties despite continued growth

    ▶ Japan’s real GDP expanded an annualized +1.8% QoQ in 2019Q2 , registering the third consecutive quarter of positive growth.

    ▶ Although Kansai’s basic economic trends remained robust in 2019Q2, prospects seem bearish due to growing uncertainties, notably the China-US trade conflict and the upcoming tax hike, which caused a noticeable deterioration in expectations-related indicators.

    ▶ We forecast real GRP growth of +0.6% in FY2019 and +0.5% in FY2020 in Kansai. Private consumption and government spending will prop up growth, contributing +0.8%pt and +0.4%pt in FY2019, while external demand (outside Kansai) will suppress growth by -0.5%pt. The expected FY2020 contributions are +0.3%pt for private consumption, +0.2%pt for government spending, and -0.0%pt for external demand.

    ▶ We analyze the impact of the trade conflict with Korea on Kansai’s economy and conclude that even if the conflict persists, its impact is likely to be limited.

    PDF
  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Kansai Economic Insight Monthly Vol.76 (August 2019)

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Monthly Report(Kansai)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani

    ABSTRACT

    Summary: Further economic deterioration in sight

    ・ Production in June shrank MoM for the first time in three months.
    ・ Although Kansai logged a trade surplus in July, the total amount of trade declined YoY for the eighth consecutive month. The impact of the trade tensions with Korea are limited to individual firms rather than industries.
    ・ The Economy Watchers’ Diffusion Index (DI) in July deteriorated MoM for the third consecutive month.
    ・ Nominal wages in May remained unchanged, but real wages decreased YoY for the third consecutive month.
    ・ Sales by large retailers in June exceeded last year’s level for the second month in a row.
    ・ The number of new housing starts in June contracted by -3.6% YoY, decreasing for the third consecutive month.
    ・ Both the effective job offers-to-applicants ratio and the unemployment declined slightly in June.
    ・ June was the 16th month of uninterrupted YoY growth in construction works.
    ・ The number of international arrivals at Kansai International Airport in June grew YoY for the tenth consecutive month.
    ・ China’s Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) in July improved slightly, but it remained below 50 for the third month in a row.

    PDF
  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Kansai Economic Insight Monthly Vol.75 (July 2019)

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Monthly Report(Kansai)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani

    ABSTRACT

    Summary: Further economic deterioration in sight

    ・ Production in May expanded MoM for the second month in a row.
    ・ Although Kansai registered a trade surplus for the first time in two months in June, both exports and imports shrank YoY.
    ・ The Economy Watchers’ Diffusion Index (DI)  in June deteriorated MoM for the second consecutive month.
    ・ Both nominal and real wages in April decreased YoY for the second consecutive month.
    ・ Sales by large retailers in May expanded YoY for the first time in two months.
    ・ The number of new housing starts in May plummeted sharply (-27.5% YoY), decreasing for the second consecutive month.
    ・ Although the effective job offers-to-applicants ratio in May declined slightly, the absolute numbers of both job offers and applicants increased. The unemployment rate remained unchanged.
    ・ Construction works in May expanded YoY for the 15th month in a row. However, public works contracts declined.
    ・ The number of international arrivals at Kansai International Airport in June grew YoY for the ninth month in a row.
    ・ China’s Q2 real GDP expanded +6.2% YoY, the slowest growth rate since 1992.

    PDF
  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Kansai Economic Insight Monthly Vol.74 (June 2019)

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Monthly Report(Kansai)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani

    ABSTRACT

    Summary: Current economic deterioration expected to persist

    • Production in April expanded MoM for the first time in six months, but output was -0.5% lower than the Q1 average.
    • Kansai registered a trade deficit in May for the first time in four months. Both exports and imports shrank YoY.
    • The Economy Watchers’ Diffusion Index (DI) in May deteriorated MoM for the first time in two months.
    • Both nominal and real wages in March decreased YoY for the first time in three months.
    • Sales by large retailers in April shrank YoY for the first time in two months.
    • The number of new housing starts in April decreased YoY for the first time in two months.
    • The job offers-to-applicants ratio in April increased slightly. The unemployment rate remained unchanged.
    • Construction works in April expanded for the 14th consecutive month.
    • The number of international arrivals at Kansai International Airport in May grew YoY for the eighth month in a row.
    • China’s Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) in May deteriorated for the second consecutive month.
    PDF
  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Kansai Economic Insight Quarterly No. 43

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Quarterly Report(Kansai)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani

    ABSTRACT

    Some sectors of the economy are robust but the outlook remains uncertain, dimmed by US-China trade frictions and the upcoming consumption tax hike.

    • In 2019Q1 Japan’s real GDP registered the second consecutive quarter of positive growth, expanding +0.5% QoQ (+2.1% if annualized).
    • Although some sectors of Kansai’s economy remained robust in 2019Q1, there are growing risks of recession.
    • Our forecast for Kansai’s real GRP growth in FY2019 is +0.7%. Private demand is expected to contribute +0.5%pt, government spending +0.3%pt, and external demand -0.1%pt.
    • We forecast a +0.4% real GRP growth in Kansai in FY2020. The expected contributions are +0.3%pt for private demand, +0.3%pt for government spending, and -0.1%pt for external demand.
    PDF
  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Kansai Economic Insight Monthly Vol.73 (May 2019)

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Monthly Report(Kansai)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani

    ABSTRACT

    Summary: Economy remains sluggish with signs of potential deterioration

    • Production in March shrank MoM for the first time in two months.
    • The April trade balance remained positive for the third month in a row, but it shrank YoY.
    • The Economy Watchers’ DI in March improved MoM for the first time in two months.
    • Real wages in February increased YoY for the second month in a row.
    • Sales by large retailers in March expanded for the first time in five months.
    • New housing starts in March increased YoY for the first time in two months.
    • The effective job offers-to-applicants ratio in March remained unchanged.
    • March was the 13th month of uninterrupted YoY growth in construction.
    • International arrivals at KIX in April grew YoY for the seventh month in a row.
    • China’s PMI in April deteriorated for the first time in two months.
    PDF
  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Kansai Economic Insight Monthly Vol.71 (February/March 2019)

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Monthly Report(Kansai)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani

    PDF
  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Kansai Economic Insight Quarterly No. 40

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Quarterly Report(Kansai)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / IRIE, Hiroaki / OGAWA, Ryo / KINOSHITA, Yusuke

    PDF
  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Typhoon No. 21 influence on the Kansai economy

    Insight

    Insight » Commentary

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / FUJIHARA, Yukinori / KINOSHITA, Yusuke

    ABSTRACT

    Typhoon No. 21 has caused severe damage to the Kansai region. Kansai International Airport (KIX) has suffered from unforeseen flooding of Runway A (Terminal 1 side) and Apron, a tanker colliding into the airport access bridge, etc. It is necessary to show respect to those working hard day and night in order to speed up the reopening process of the airport.

    The Kansai economy is benefitting from 2 types of export: the so-called service export of inbound tourism (inbound consumption is classified as service export in statistics), and the export of electronic components and devices, both of which go through the KIX, which is an arterial infrastructure of the Kansai and the Japanese economy.

    Even a 1-day early recovery will help to keep these benefits. Considering all the caused damage, it still remains unknown as to when the airport will function as per usual again. Currently, it is crucial to gather all the information about what effect the damage will have on the Kansai economy and how important it is to reopen the early at full scale.

    PDF
  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Kansai Economic Insight Quarterly No. 39

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Quarterly Report(Kansai)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / IRIE, Hiroaki / KINOSHITA, Yusuke / IKUTA, Yusuke / CAO, Thi Khanh Nguyet / MA, Teng

    PDF
  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Kansai Economic Insight Quarterly No. 38

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Quarterly Report(Kansai)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / IRIE, Hiroaki

    PDF
  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Kansai Economic Insight Monthly Vol.61 (April/May 2018)

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Monthly Report(Kansai)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / TOYOHARA, Norihiko / KINOSHITA, Yusuke / IKUTA, Yusuke / CAO, Thi Khanh Nguyet / MA, Teng

    PDF
  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Kansai Economic Insight Quarterly (May 2017)

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Quarterly Report(Kansai)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / IRIE, Hiroaki / KINOSHITA, Yusuke / BRADY, James / CAO, Thi Khanh Nguyet / IKUTA, Yusuke

    PDF