Research

List of papers in Quarterly report研究・論文一覧

  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Kansai Economic Insight Quarterly Vol.44

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Quarterly Report(Kansai)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani

    ABSTRACT

    Summary: Prospects dimmed by growing uncertainties despite continued growth

    ▶ Japan’s real GDP expanded an annualized +1.8% QoQ in 2019Q2 , registering the third consecutive quarter of positive growth.

    ▶ Although Kansai’s basic economic trends remained robust in 2019Q2, prospects seem bearish due to growing uncertainties, notably the China-US trade conflict and the upcoming tax hike, which caused a noticeable deterioration in expectations-related indicators.

    ▶ We forecast real GRP growth of +0.6% in FY2019 and +0.5% in FY2020 in Kansai. Private consumption and government spending will prop up growth, contributing +0.8%pt and +0.4%pt in FY2019, while external demand (outside Kansai) will suppress growth by -0.5%pt. The expected FY2020 contributions are +0.3%pt for private consumption, +0.2%pt for government spending, and -0.0%pt for external demand.

    ▶ We analyze the impact of the trade conflict with Korea on Kansai’s economy and conclude that even if the conflict persists, its impact is likely to be limited.

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  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Kansai Economic Insight Quarterly No. 43

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Quarterly Report(Kansai)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / KARAVASILEV, Yani

    ABSTRACT

    Some sectors of the economy are robust but the outlook remains uncertain, dimmed by US-China trade frictions and the upcoming consumption tax hike.

    • In 2019Q1 Japan’s real GDP registered the second consecutive quarter of positive growth, expanding +0.5% QoQ (+2.1% if annualized).
    • Although some sectors of Kansai’s economy remained robust in 2019Q1, there are growing risks of recession.
    • Our forecast for Kansai’s real GRP growth in FY2019 is +0.7%. Private demand is expected to contribute +0.5%pt, government spending +0.3%pt, and external demand -0.1%pt.
    • We forecast a +0.4% real GRP growth in Kansai in FY2020. The expected contributions are +0.3%pt for private demand, +0.3%pt for government spending, and -0.1%pt for external demand.
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  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Kansai Economic Insight Quarterly No. 40

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Quarterly Report(Kansai)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / IRIE, Hiroaki / OGAWA, Ryo / KINOSHITA, Yusuke

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  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Kansai Economic Insight Quarterly No. 39

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Quarterly Report(Kansai)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / IRIE, Hiroaki / KINOSHITA, Yusuke / IKUTA, Yusuke / CAO, Thi Khanh Nguyet / MA, Teng

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  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Kansai Economic Insight Quarterly No. 38

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Quarterly Report(Kansai)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa / IRIE, Hiroaki

    PDF
  • INADA, Yoshihisa

    Japanese Economy Analysis and Forecasts, No. 116

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

    Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Quarterly Report(JP)

     / DATE : 

    AUTHOR : 
    INADA, Yoshihisa

    PDF