Outlook: Kansai’s economy is back on track to recovery. The vaccine rollout is expected to play a key role in the recovery of private consumption. 

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Outlook: Kansai’s economy back on track to recovery but prospects overshadowed by new state of emergency. 

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Outlook: Kansai’s economy is on track to recovery but resurging infections are likely to undermine spending on services

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Outlook: Kansai’s economy expected to recover but resurging infections pose risks

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Outlook: Kansai’s economy expected to recover after bottoming out

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Outlook: Kansai’s economy expected to recover after bottoming out

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Outlook: Kansai’s economy shows signs of recovery after bottoming out

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Outlook: Kansai’s economy shows signs of recovery after bottoming out

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Outlook: Kansai’s economy shows signs of bottoming out

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Outlook: Kansai’s economy keeps deteriorating but shows signs of bottoming out

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Outlook: Kansai’s economy keeps deteriorating but shows signs of bottoming out

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Outlook: Severe economic deterioration looming in Kansai

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Outlook: Severe economic deterioration looming

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Outlook: Kansai’s economy likely to remain on a downward trajectory

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Outlook: Kansai’s economy is likely to remain on a downward trajectory

▶  Production: Production declined in February.
▶  International trade: In March, Kansai’s trade surplus was smaller than the previous month.
▶  Business confidence: The Economy Watcher DI in March reached an all-time low.
▶  Wages: Both nominal and real wages kept declining in January.
▶  Labor market: In February, the job offers-to-applicants ratio kept deteriorating, and the unemployment rate kept increasing.
▶  Private Consumption: In February, department store sales plummeted while supermarket sales rose due to stockpiling in the face of the coronavirus pandemic.
▶  Housing: The number of new housing starts kept decreasing in February.
▶  Construction: Construction investments in February kept expanding, albeit at a decelerating pace. The contract amount for public works projects in March increased.
▶   Inbound tourism: Due to the impact of the coronavirus, the number of international arrivals at Kansai International Airport in March plunged -95.1% year-on-year.
▶  Chinese economy: China saw its Q1 GDP shrink for the first time since quarterly GDP statistics started in 1992.

Outlook: Kansai’s economy is likely to remain on a downward trajectory

▶  Production: Although production increased in January, it has not recovered from the October-November slump.
▶  International trade: In February, Kansai’s trade deficit turned into a surplus due to the slump in imports from coronavirus-hit China.
▶  Business confidence: The Economy Watcher DI in February reached its lowest level since April 2011 (after the Great East Japan Earthquake).
▶  Wages: Both nominal and real wages kept declining in December.
▶  Labor market: In January, the job offers-to-applicants ratio deteriorated, and the unemployment rate increased.
▶  Private Consumption: Department store and supermarket sales in January kept declining. Duty-free sales plunged -71.9% in February.
▶  Housing: The number of new housing starts decreased in January.
▶  Construction: Construction investments kept expanding in January, but the growth is decelerating. The contract amount for public works projects in February decreased.
▶   Inbound tourism: Due to the impact of the coronavirus, the number of international arrivals at Kansai International Airport in February slumped -66.0% year-on-year.
▶  Chinese economy: Coronavirus-hit China saw its manufacturing PMI drop to a historic low of 35.7 in February, a level lower than the one registered during the Global Financial Crisis.

Summary: Kansai’s economy is deteriorating but likely to level off

▶  Production: Production in December increased for the first time in three months. However, overall Q4 production registered the largest decline since the Global Financial Crisis.
▶  International trade: In January, Kansai logged a trade deficit. Both exports and imports kept shrinking.
▶  Business confidence: The Economy Watcher DI improved in January. However, concerns about the economic impact of the coronavirus epidemic are growing.
▶  Wages: Both nominal and real wages kept declining in November.
▶  Labor market: In December, the effective job offers-to-applicants ratio improved, but the unemployment rate increased.
▶  Private Consumption: Large retailers’ sales kept declining in December. The recovery from the consumption tax hike in October is taking longer than it did in after the tax hike in April 2014.
▶  Housing: Although the number of new housing starts in December increased for the first time in five months, 2019 saw an overall decline.
▶  Construction: Construction investments marked the the 22st straight month of expansion in December. The contract amount for public works projects in January increased in all prefectures.
▶   Inbound tourism: The number of international arrivals at Kansai International Airport in January increased for the first time in two months. The impact of the coronavirus is yet to be felt.
▶  Chinese economy: The release of key statistics has been delayed due to the coronavirus outbreak. Excluding the Hubei province, factories across China are gradually resuming operations. Concerns about the future of the Chinese economy are growing.

Summary: Kansai’s economy is deteriorating but likely to level off

▶  Production: Production declined for the second consecutive month in November.
▶  International trade: Although Kansai logged a trade surplus in December, both exports and imports kept shrinking.
▶  Business confidence: The Economy Watcher DI improved in December. Hopwever, it remains low.
▶  Wages: Both nominal and real wages kept declining in October.
▶  Labor market: In November, the effective job offers-to-applicants ratio deteriorated. Although the unemployment rate decreased , the labor force population shrank for the first time in two months.
▶  Consumption: Large retailers’ revenues kept declining in November. The effect of the consumption tax hike has not worn off completely.
▶  Housing: The number of new housing starts in November decreased for the fourth month in a row.
▶  Construction: Construction investments marked the the 21st straight month of expansion in November.
▶   Inbound tourism:  The number of international arrivals at Kansai International Airport in December declined for the first time in 15 months.
▶  Chinese economy: China’s GDP expanded +6.1% in 2019, reaching the lower bound of the government’s target. Although China and the US signed a “phase one” trade deal in January 2020, structural problems will remain a major issue.

Summary: Kansai’s economy is deteriorating but likely to level off

▶  Production: Production in October declined after expanding in September.
▶  International trade: Although Kansai logged a trade surplus in November, exports and imports kept shrinking.
▶  Business confidence: The DI improved in November but it remains low.
▶  Wages: Both nominal and real wages kept declining in September.
▶  Labor market: The number of job openings decreased and unemployment increased in October.
▶  Consumption: Large retailers’ revenues in October slumped after the consumption tax hike.
▶  Housing: The number of new housing starts in October declined.
▶  Construction: The monetary value of construction investments in October kept rising.
▶   Inbound tourism: International arrivals at KIX in November grew despite the decline in Korean visitor numbers.
▶  Chinese economy: China’s PMI improved in November, surpassing the cutoff level of 50 for the first time in seven months. However, the future outlook remains unclear.

Summary: The economy is deteriorating but likely to level off

▶ Production: Kansai’s Q3 production expanded YoY for the first time in three quarters.
▶  Nominal wages in Osaka, Kyoto and Hyogo prefectures increased, but real wages kept declining.
▶  Internatinoal trade: Kansai logged a trade surplus in October. However, both exports and imports shrank YoY.
▶  Business confidence: The October Diffusion Index dropped to 39.9, reflecting the reactionary fall after the rush demand in September.
▶  Construction: The number of new housing starts declined, but construction volume expanded YoY in Q3.
▶  Labor market: Nominal and real wages kept declining in August. The number of new job openings decreased and unemployment increased in September.
▶   Inbound sector: International arrivals at Kansai International Airport grew slightly YoY in October.
▶  Chinese economy: China’s PMI in October deteriorated to 49.3. Production, domestic consumption and fixed capital investment all saw decelerating growth rates. China’s international trade volume kept shrinking.