Outlook: Kansai’s economy shows signs of recovery after bottoming out

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Kansai’s economy is recovering but remains weak.

▶ APIR’s forecast for real GRP growth in Kansai is -5.2% in FY 2020 and +3.3% in FY 2021.

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Outlook improves thanks to a rebound in private consumption and exports but Japan’s economic recovery lags behind others

▶　Japan’s Q3 real GDP contracted an annualized +21.4% QoQ.

▶　We have updated our forecast for real GDP growth to -5.4% in FY 2020, and +3.8% in FY 2021.

▶　We forecast a core CPI inflation of -0.4% in FY 2020, and +0.5% in FY 2021.Although the decline in energy prices has decelerated, the consumption tax hike as well as the government’s free childcare program and the partial elimination of tertiary education fees will both put downward pressure on CPI inflation.

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Forecast updates

▶ Our forecast for Japan’s real GDP growth in 2020 Q4 is an annualized +7.1% QoQ.

▶ We forecast a GDP deflator of -0.2% QoQ in 2020 Q4.

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Outlook: Kansai’s economy shows signs of recovery after bottoming out

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Forecasts updates
▶ Our latest forecast for Japan’s real GDP growth in 2020 Q3 is an annualized +18.9% QoQ.

▶ We forecast a GDP deflator of -0.2% QoQ in 2020 Q3.

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Outlook: Kansai’s economy shows signs of bottoming out

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Outlook: Kansai’s economy keeps deteriorating but shows signs of bottoming out

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Forecasts updates
▶ Our latest forecast for Japan’s real GDP growth in 2020 Q3 is an annualized +12.4% QoQ.

▶ We forecast a PCE deflator of +0.3% QoQ in 2020 Q3. In contrast, our GDP deflator forecast is -0.1% QoQ, reflecting the deteriorating terms of trade.

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