Japanese Economy: Analysis and Forecasts, No. 124
Abstract
Highlight: Global trade has bottomed out, but recovery remains uncertain
▶ Japan’s Q3 real GDP growth was an annualized +0.2% QoQ, well below expectations. APIR’s latest forecast for real GDP growth is +0.7% in FY2019, +0.4% in FY2020, and +0.7% in FY2021.
▶ Rush demand before the consumption tax hike this time was not as pronounced as in 2014. Although private consumption remains weak, we deem an economic recession in FY2019 is unlikely.
▶ The China-US trade conflict is taking its toll on global trade. As the effects of protectionist policies will extend into FY2020, the Japanese economy is not expected to get back on the path to recovery until FY2021.
▶ Future inflation will be influenced not only by energy and non-energy prices, but also by the consumption tax hike and the elimination of child care fees. We forecast a core CPI inflation of +0.6% in FY2019, +0.4% in FY2020, and +0.5% in FY2021.
著者
INADA, Yoshihisa
Director of Research & Derector of Center for Quantitative Economic Analysis(CQEA), Asia Pacific Institute of Research and Professor emeritus, Konan University
Macroeconomics, Applied Econometrics, Economic Forecasting
KARAVASILEV, Yani
Associate Professor, Kwansei Gakuin University and Research Fellow, Asia Pacific Institute of Research
Economic Development, Foreign Direct Investment, International HRM, the Asian and Japanese Economies
関連論文
-
Kansai Economic Insight Monthly Vol. 132 (April 2024)
Asia Pacific Economic Forecast
Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Monthly Report(Kansai)
/ DATE :
ABSTRACT
Economic conditions are changing, signs of future deterioration:
Stagnant production and high consumer prices pose downside risks
Download the full report for a detailed analysis.
-
Kansai Economic Insight Monthly Vol. 131 (March 2024)
Asia Pacific Economic Forecast
Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Monthly Report(Kansai)
/ DATE :
ABSTRACT
Economic conditions are changing, but the outlook shows signs of bottoming out:
Slow production recovery poses downward risk to the economy
Download the full report for a detailed analysis.
-
Japanese Economy Monthly Forecast (March 2024)
Asia Pacific Economic Forecast
Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Monthly Report(JP)
/ DATE :
ABSTRACT
Forecast updates
▶ Our forecast for Japan’s real GDP growth in 2024 Q1 is an annualized -3.0%
▶ we forecast a headline inflation (GDP deflator) of +0.0% QoQ in 2024 Q1.
Download the full report for a detailed analysis.
-
Japanese Economy Monthly Forecast (February 2024)
Asia Pacific Economic Forecast
Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Monthly Report(JP)
/ DATE :
ABSTRACT
Forecast updates
▶ Our forecast for Japan’s real GDP growth in 2024 Q1 is an annualized +0.2%
▶ we forecast a headline inflation (GDP deflator) of -0.6% QoQ in 2024 Q1.
Download the full report for a detailed analysis.
-
Kansai Economic Insight Monthly Vol. 130 (February 2024)
Asia Pacific Economic Forecast
Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Monthly Report(Kansai)
/ DATE :
ABSTRACT
Economic conditions heading downward, signs of future deterioration
Declining automobile production and the slowdown of China’s economy pose downside risks
Download the full report for a detailed analysis.
-
Kansai Economic Insight Quarterly No.68
Asia Pacific Economic Forecast
Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Quarterly Report(Kansai)
/ DATE :
ABSTRACT
Revised Economic Forecast for Kansai’s GRP reflecting the second advance estimate of Q4 2023 GDP:
+1.4% in FY 2023, +1.4% in FY 2024, +1.5% in FY 2025
Download the full report for a detailed analysis.
-
Japanese Economy: Analysis and Forecasts, No.147
Asia Pacific Economic Forecast
Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Quarterly Report(JP)
/ DATE :
ABSTRACT
Revised growth forecast reflecting the second advance estimate for Q4 GDP
– Real GDP growth forecast: +1.3% in FY 2023, +0.8% in FY 2024, +1.1% in FY 2025 –
Download the full report for a detailed analysis.
-
Japanese Economy Monthly Forecast (January 2024)
Asia Pacific Economic Forecast
Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Monthly Report(JP)
/ DATE :
ABSTRACT
Forecast updates
▶ Our forecast for Japan’s real GDP growth in 2023 Q4 is an annualized +3.2%
▶ we forecast a headline inflation (GDP deflator) of +0.2% QoQ in 2023 Q4.
Download the full report for a detailed analysis.
-
Kansai Economic Insight Monthly Vol. 129 (January 2024)
Asia Pacific Economic Forecast
Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Monthly Report(Kansai)
/ DATE :
ABSTRACT
Economic conditions heading downward, signs of future deterioration
Natural disasters and declining production pose downside risks
Download the full report for a detailed analysis.
-
Japanese Economy Monthly Forecast (December 2023)
Asia Pacific Economic Forecast
Asia Pacific Economic Forecast » Monthly Report(JP)
/ DATE :
ABSTRACT
Forecast updates
▶ Our forecast for Japan’s real GDP growth in 2023 Q4 is an annualized +0.7%
▶ we forecast a headline inflation (GDP deflator) of +0.0% QoQ in 2023 Q4.
Download the full report for a detailed analysis.